It's that time of year when analysts release their year-ahead forecasts, often at large set-piece client events. Analysts appear cautious, overly US-centric, under-appreciating developments in China.

Subdued demand for gold jewelry is symptomatic of strength in the price of the metal, with weaker consumer demand accommodating stronger investor interest with gold being progressively monetized.

Last week's Commitment of Traders Report showed a significant fall in net open futures positions held on COMEX, but they remain a headwind for gold.

Gold options are hovering near their long-term average, pointing to little fear in the market, but option skew has fallen, especially in short-tenors, suggesting a reduction in bullish expectations.

In 2024 we saw a flow of gold into vaults in London, consistent with higher prices and an increase in investor and Central Bank demand with holdings 8,716t, valued at USD 735 billion as of end-November.

The US stock market is closing the year in a jubilant mood, but while the headline indexes (S&P500, Nasdaq100) are up strongly, the median company in both indexes has significantly under-performed gold, with the median Nasdaq company under-performing T-bills!

While production has been slowing since end-2019, the Australian government's Resources and Energy Quarterly (Q4) remain upbeat.

About Gold is focused on factors driving gold as an investment and is written independent of any bullion dealer, mining company, or financial institution.

Gold came under selling pressure in the wake of the US Federal Reserve's meeting last week, but while it has stabilized into the festive season, it continues to face near-term headwinds.

open.substack.com/pub/redwarda...