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Resolution Foundation
@resolutionfoundation.org
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The Resolution Foundation is an independent think-tank dedicated to lifting living standards in the UK.
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · Nov 12
Hello and welcome to all our new followers 👋

To ensure you're getting all the best analysis and insights, we've made a starter pack of all our staff on Bluesky. Make sure to give them a follow too ⤵️
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resolutionfoundation.org
Did you know that government levies have driven more than half of the rise in electricity bills in recent years?

@jonnymarshall.bsky.social explains a better way of doing things ⤵️

Read 'Splitting the bill' to find out how to cut costs for three-in-four households 👉 buff.ly/sHhw6L1
November 10, 2025 at 5:30 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
How long will the triple lock last? 🔒

Nick Williams shared his perspective at our recent event.
November 10, 2025 at 4:46 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Key childhood risk factors associated with being a NEET (not in education, employment or training) are becoming more common.

These indicators matter for policy makers interested in the future NEETs outlook.

Read more➡️ buff.ly/kIei4lG
Chart showing proportion of children with various indicators of NEET risk: England It is well-documented that an increasing share of children are growing up with a disability: among children aged 11-15 in England, the proportion who are classified as disabled has risen from less than one-in-ten in 2015-16 (9%) to almost one-in-six (16%) in 2023-24. This largely relates to impairments that are social or behavioural, learning-related or mental health-related. Relatedly, the proportion of children in England who receive support relating to special educational needs (SEN) is also on the rise. Among secondary school pupils, the proportion in receipt of SEN support has risen from 13% in 2015/16 to 17% in 2024/25. The proportion of children who are regularly missing school spiked during the Covid-19 pandemic and remains elevated. In 2024/25, one-in-five (21%) of secondary school pupils were persistently absent from school, meaning they missed 10% or more of term time.
November 10, 2025 at 4:30 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
The Government has announced a new independent investigation into rising youth inactivity.

In our recent report, we put forward a series of policies to help young people back into work or study. ⬇️

Read the full report here: buff.ly/s3jjW8h
November 10, 2025 at 3:30 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
If they don't implement significant policy changes, this Government will preside over the sharpest increase in child poverty by any Labour Government in the last 60 years ⤵️

Read 'No half measures' 👉 buff.ly/04eBps0
Chart showing average annual percentage point change in the proportion of children living in relative poverty, after housing costs, by parliament: GB/UK
November 10, 2025 at 2:15 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Councils’ net temporary accommodation costs have increased more than three-fold in the last decade.

Widening affordability gaps between Local Housing Allowance rates and local rents risk pushing more families into temporary accommodation over the coming years.

Read more ➡️ buff.ly/uRZx9Bo
Chart showing annual real spending on temporary accomodation provision by local authorities (2024-25 prices): England Councils in England spent £2.8 billion on TA in 2024-25, more than double the £1.3 billion spent ten years earlier (in 2024-25 prices).
November 10, 2025 at 1:15 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
In 2024, the UK had the lowest taxes on an average employee of any G7 country.

UK taxes for lower earners were also the lowest in the G7.

But the UK's position might change in 2025.

Read more 👉 buff.ly/4ppe7Q8
Chart showing tax wedge for a single employee on that country's average pay: OECD, 2024 In OECD comparisons, which look at the equivalents of Income Tax and employee NI paid by a full-time employee on mean pay (around £50,000 in the UK), our effective tax rate was the lowest in the G7 last year, with the UK on 21 per cent – compared to 24 per cent in the US and 37 per cent in Germany. But this is not a complete measure: if we add in employer NI, then the total tax wedge for this employee rises to 29 per cent (as a share of total labour cost). But this was, again, the lowest in the G7, and among the lowest in the OECD, as Figure 1 shows, with an OECD average of 35 per cent.
November 10, 2025 at 12:30 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Why should we switch 2p of tax from National Insurance to Income Tax? ⤵️

Income Tax raises more money and spreads the burden more fairly. The switch would raise £6 billion, and leave the vast majority of payslips unaffected.
1. Time for a rethink A gloomy economic outlook is making it more likely that the Chancellor will need to increase taxes at the Autumn Budget. she should take this opportunity to protect worker's pay packets, at the same time as bringing in revenue and making the tax system fairer. 2. A fairer share Currently, earnings from employment are taxed twice - in the form of National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and Income Tax. Other forms of income, like the income landlors earn from rent, only face Income Tax. Cutting NICs by 2p while increasing income tax by the same amount would have no impact on most employees. 3. A helping hand Under this proposal, a pensioner with an income of £25,000 would pay around £250 a year more in Income Tax. The New State Pension will be rising by over £500 next April. For pensioners with incomes below £40,000, that boost would be bigger than the tax rises, so they would still be better off next year than this year. 4. delivering fairness and fiscal stability The policy would raise £6 billion a year while protecting the payslips of 30 million employees. This is a chance for the Chancellor to provide fiscal reassurance alongside long-lasting beneficial tax reform.
November 10, 2025 at 11:45 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
Ahead of the Budget at the end of this month, the OBR is expected to mark down trend productivity growth.

GDP growth is likely to be significantly weaker than in the OBR’s March forecast.

Read our Budget Preview➡️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
If the OBR marks down trend productivity growth as expected, that would imply a similar change to the outlook for overall growth in the medium term. On top of that, the near-term outlook has deteriorated given a rise in trade uncertainty emanating from the US following new tariffs put in place by President Trump. While other countries have by and large not retaliated, reducing the size of the headwind to global growth, it is likely that the OBR will reduce growth in 2025 and 2026 (albeit with something of bounce back thereafter). Combined, as shown in Figure 3, the OBR’s forecast is likely to be weaker in the near term than it was in March, as well as towards the end of the forecast when the effect of the assumed markdown to trend growth dominates.
November 10, 2025 at 10:30 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
This is not the time for half measures.

@alexclegg.bsky.social explains why the Government should fully repeal the two child limit on benefits, as part of their upcoming Child Poverty Strategy ⤵️
November 10, 2025 at 9:35 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
🚨Event on Thursday🚨

Successive governments have failed to grapple with Britain’s housing challenges, but can the Chancellor afford not to act decisively at this month's Budget?

🏠Register to join our discussion next Thursday⤵️

buff.ly/5SGqeU5
Date and time: Thursday 13 November 2025 9:30 am - 10:45 am Speakers Emily Williams Director of Residential Research at Savills Paul Cheshire Emeritus Professor of Economic Geography at the LSE Jamie Carswell Director of Housing and Safer Communities at the Royal Borough of Greenwich Lindsay Judge Research Director at the Resolution Foundation Ruth Curtice Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation (Chair)
November 9, 2025 at 5:01 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
The Budget will be a pivotal moment for a Government looking to improve its mood music.

James Smith explains why the Chx should prioritise:

🏦 The public finances
👛 The cost of living
📃 Payslips

Read 'Black holes and consolidations' to learn more ⤵️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
November 9, 2025 at 2:26 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Ahead of the Budget at the end of this month, the OBR is expected to mark down trend productivity growth.

GDP growth is likely to be significantly weaker than in the OBR’s March forecast.

Read our Budget Preview➡️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
If the OBR marks down trend productivity growth as expected, that would imply a similar change to the outlook for overall growth in the medium term. On top of that, the near-term outlook has deteriorated given a rise in trade uncertainty emanating from the US following new tariffs put in place by President Trump. While other countries have by and large not retaliated, reducing the size of the headwind to global growth, it is likely that the OBR will reduce growth in 2025 and 2026 (albeit with something of bounce back thereafter). Combined, as shown in Figure 3, the OBR’s forecast is likely to be weaker in the near term than it was in March, as well as towards the end of the forecast when the effect of the assumed markdown to trend growth dominates.
November 9, 2025 at 11:15 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
What key steps can the Government take to overhaul car taxation in the upcoming budget?
November 8, 2025 at 3:53 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
The cost of living crisis has left British households with a legacy of higher prices – especially when it comes to energy bills.

@adamscorer.bsky.social from @nea.org.uk spoke to us about how families are struggling to cope.

Get the full conversation here ⤵️ buff.ly/epAqfRR
November 8, 2025 at 2:25 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Borrowing would be £14 billion higher in 2029-30 as a result of u-turns and changes in the economy forecast.

While smaller than the £20 billion expected by some, this is still a very large hit to the public finances.
Figure 8 shows the impact of the economic and fiscal changes discussed so far on borrowing, where positive numbers in this chart indicate higher borrowing. The impact of the two big judgements from the OBR stand out clearly. In green is the £14 billion hit from lower trend productivity growth. While smaller than the £20 billion expected by some, reflecting the likely backloading of this judgement, this is still a very large hit to the public finances. Set against that, though, the impact of faster growth in wages in light blue is only slightly smaller, reducing borrowing by around £13 billion. Debt interest, given higher gilt yields and a slowing in Bank of England gilts sales, also pushes up on borrowing by £6 billion in 2029-30
November 8, 2025 at 12:01 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
This is not the time for half measures.

@Alex__Clegg explains why the Government should fully repeal the two child limit on benefits, as part of their upcoming Child Poverty Strategy ⤵️
November 8, 2025 at 11:01 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
Two crucial reforms the Budget could make are to motoring taxes.

Petrol and Fuel Duty are both historically cheap: permanently cancelling scheduled rises should not be a priority.

Read our Budget Preview now➡️ buff.ly/XPioKOp
Two crucial reforms the Budget could make are to motoring taxes, to boost the credibility of the UK’s public finances in both the medium and long-term. First, the Fuel Duty freeze should end. As Figure 14 shows, the real value of Fuel Duty has been cut by a third (23p per litre) over the past decade, and the cost of petrol is low by the standards of the past 20 years. Attempting to continue the freeze indefinitely would mean the Chancellor had chosen to commit £5 billion in 2029-30 to lowering Fuel Duty, and any such sums would be far better directed at cutting electricity bills and reducing poverty, as we set out earlier. Simply going ahead with existing plans would still leave real Fuel Duty levels lower than at any point through 1994 to 2021
November 8, 2025 at 10:45 AM
resolutionfoundation.org
Making unfair dismissal a ‘day one’ right would be a big change from the UK’s current two-year qualifying period.

The Government should keep but *reduce* ‘qualifying periods’ for unfair dismissal protection ⤵️ buff.ly/WepH7zY
November 7, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Reposted by Resolution Foundation
helenbarnard.bsky.social
Excellent analysis of Mayfield Review from @benbgeiger.bsky.social & @louisemurphy.bsky.social
@resolutionfoundation.org
- Review has the right diagnosis & analysis of problem & drivers.
- UK labour market isn't in crisis, but does have a long-running problem with disability inclusion.
1/n
From Review to reality • Resolution Foundation
There’s always a danger that official reviews end up generating a lot of talk and symbolic gestures, but don’t set out meaningful steps for change. That’s the challenge faced by the just-published rev...
www.resolutionfoundation.org
November 7, 2025 at 4:29 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
Why should we switch 2p of tax from National Insurance to Income Tax? ⤵️

Income Tax raises more money and spreads the burden more fairly. The switch would raise £6 billion, and leave the vast majority of payslips unaffected.
November 7, 2025 at 4:15 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
📉 Calling all chart enthusiasts! 📢 The Resolution Foundation is hiring 👀

This is a rare opportunity to join our senior leadership team and take forward our work on productivity and growth.

Applications close in two weeks! ⤵️ buff.ly/x40DZV1
November 7, 2025 at 3:15 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
What would a 'tax switch' of 2p from National Insurance Contributions to Income Tax mean for tax rates on different income sources?

We've crunched the numbers.

Read Top of the Charts to find out more 👉 buff.ly/qOWKDYR
November 7, 2025 at 2:53 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
How can the Government help families with high energy bills?

Jonny Marshall explains why cutting VAT from bills would *not* be the best approach.

Catch up on the full discussion to find out how the Government can cut costs for three-in-four households ⤵️ buff.ly/aA5q2H3
November 7, 2025 at 2:01 PM
resolutionfoundation.org
If they don't implement significant policy changes, this Government will preside over the sharpest increase in child poverty by any Labour Government in the last 60 years ⤵️

Read 'No half measures' 👉 buff.ly/04eBps0
November 7, 2025 at 1:01 PM