Looks like a great storm for Metrowest! Good middle ground between high ratios in the north with higher QPF in the south. Combine that with nearby coastal fronts on the ENE wind and CAMs consistently have metro Boston in the crosshairs. Hoping to cross the 18" mark! Maybe some thunder?

Measuring snow board and stakes are ready here in northern
Dutchess County! Hoping the banding sets up similarly to what the HREF ensembles are hinting, but I've been let down before with the banding heading north to the Capital District with robust WAA.

This morning's HREF is coming in a bit more robust with the approaching trough and resulting LLJ/wind gusts tomorrow for eastern New England, looks like some upgrades to warnings may be warranted. Looks like +/- a few hours from noon is the time for peak gusts.

34F at KMPO and the mid 50s next door in the Tri-State area, winter is coming!

Can this happen in January?

Exciting prospects for a major east coast snowstorm next week on the overnight guidance. Good agreement between each ensemble suite - especially for a ~6 day leadtime - and these higher ceiling storms often materialize around then. But that doesn't guarantee anything, fingers crossed!

Impressive concentric banding already underway in PA and MD

Core is dark red, broader definition light shaded

Since I did not upload the GIF correctly... here is the loop

[1/2] The latest few cycles of the EPS have dramatically backed away from a cutoff southern stream in the Gulf of California next week at relatively short lead times (~130 hours). This is good news for wildfire relief efforts as it may reduce the severity of PGFs across the Transverse Ranges.

Big increase in east coast snow prospects on this morning's GFS ensemble. Many members and large MSLP spread near the benchmark with explosive deepening. Remains to be seen if this is an outlier run cycle, but this signal under 140 hours is exciting.

12z HREF members coming in more robust with morning snowfall as the shortwave moves through. Morning commute timing and brief but moderate snowfall makes for a potentially hazardous combo, especially given quick accum. on cold ground from the departing arctic air.

Getting Chilly out there!

Some solid ocean-effect has prompted NWS Norton to increase snow totals to advisory levels for eastern Mass

Some proper arctic air on its way to the NE this weekend. The European suite is noticeably colder than the GFS suite however; deterministic ECMWF runs showing widespread -20C 850mb temps. GEFS keeps things more progressive. The downstream rapid-fire shortwaves contribute to these discrepancies.