Rohit
@rohitchak.bsky.social
No chance he brings Rayner back until her HMRC investigation has concluded
February 8, 2026 at 5:52 PM
No chance he brings Rayner back until her HMRC investigation has concluded
My view has always been that the risks to inflation are to the downside, and we'll see rates settle in the 2.5-2.75% neutral range, and that current estimates are too high.
February 6, 2026 at 10:07 AM
My view has always been that the risks to inflation are to the downside, and we'll see rates settle in the 2.5-2.75% neutral range, and that current estimates are too high.
The only opinion that matters at these next few meetings is Andrew Bailey's as he is the swing vote in the MPC. As he is no longer worried about inflation, as long as the data backs up further reductions in inflation, you can expect more cuts.
February 6, 2026 at 10:07 AM
The only opinion that matters at these next few meetings is Andrew Bailey's as he is the swing vote in the MPC. As he is no longer worried about inflation, as long as the data backs up further reductions in inflation, you can expect more cuts.
His job was to schmooze Trump and feed information back to the UK, which to be fair he was pretty good at. It just turns out that the people that get along with Trump the best are also some of the scummiest people around.
February 3, 2026 at 3:41 PM
His job was to schmooze Trump and feed information back to the UK, which to be fair he was pretty good at. It just turns out that the people that get along with Trump the best are also some of the scummiest people around.
Don't get why he's anymore toast this week than he was last week or 3 months ago.
His approval ratings bottomed in October, and is up 7% since the start of the year. I think the media is starting to get scared that he's survived all of their attempts to get him out.
His approval ratings bottomed in October, and is up 7% since the start of the year. I think the media is starting to get scared that he's survived all of their attempts to get him out.
January 30, 2026 at 11:08 PM
Don't get why he's anymore toast this week than he was last week or 3 months ago.
His approval ratings bottomed in October, and is up 7% since the start of the year. I think the media is starting to get scared that he's survived all of their attempts to get him out.
His approval ratings bottomed in October, and is up 7% since the start of the year. I think the media is starting to get scared that he's survived all of their attempts to get him out.
Also characterising it as a U-turn is incredibly stupid.
Labours policy was to provide relief to soften the blow of business rates revaluation and COVID relief running out. Now they're providing further support + wider reform. It's a extension of the policy, not a u-turn.
Labours policy was to provide relief to soften the blow of business rates revaluation and COVID relief running out. Now they're providing further support + wider reform. It's a extension of the policy, not a u-turn.
January 28, 2026 at 9:36 AM
Also characterising it as a U-turn is incredibly stupid.
Labours policy was to provide relief to soften the blow of business rates revaluation and COVID relief running out. Now they're providing further support + wider reform. It's a extension of the policy, not a u-turn.
Labours policy was to provide relief to soften the blow of business rates revaluation and COVID relief running out. Now they're providing further support + wider reform. It's a extension of the policy, not a u-turn.
Don't think Neville would go into politics now. He has a big sky contract and podcast deals that he would have to give up to become a MP/mayor
January 24, 2026 at 6:15 PM
Don't think Neville would go into politics now. He has a big sky contract and podcast deals that he would have to give up to become a MP/mayor
If Reform ended up winning the Manchester mayoral by-election this would end up being one of the biggest betrayals I've seen. Not to mention that spreading party resources to fight it would hurt the party in Wales and Scotland.
January 24, 2026 at 6:04 PM
If Reform ended up winning the Manchester mayoral by-election this would end up being one of the biggest betrayals I've seen. Not to mention that spreading party resources to fight it would hurt the party in Wales and Scotland.
Worry for me is he wins the by-election due to personal support, but then labour loses the manchester mayoral by-election. Party resources would be spread thin and Reform could put loads into winning Manchester.
January 24, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Worry for me is he wins the by-election due to personal support, but then labour loses the manchester mayoral by-election. Party resources would be spread thin and Reform could put loads into winning Manchester.
Regardless, not convinced it happens.
Burnham would have to:
1. Convince the party to let him step down
2. Win selection to run in the by-election
3. Win the by-election (not guaranteed)
4. Win the leadership challenge (previously came 4th when Corbyn was elected leader)
Burnham would have to:
1. Convince the party to let him step down
2. Win selection to run in the by-election
3. Win the by-election (not guaranteed)
4. Win the leadership challenge (previously came 4th when Corbyn was elected leader)
January 22, 2026 at 12:08 PM
Regardless, not convinced it happens.
Burnham would have to:
1. Convince the party to let him step down
2. Win selection to run in the by-election
3. Win the by-election (not guaranteed)
4. Win the leadership challenge (previously came 4th when Corbyn was elected leader)
Burnham would have to:
1. Convince the party to let him step down
2. Win selection to run in the by-election
3. Win the by-election (not guaranteed)
4. Win the leadership challenge (previously came 4th when Corbyn was elected leader)
Very dumb idea to waste party resources fighting a uneccessary mayoral by-election in Manchester as well when there's important local elections around the corner.
January 22, 2026 at 12:04 PM
Very dumb idea to waste party resources fighting a uneccessary mayoral by-election in Manchester as well when there's important local elections around the corner.
Oh no we could've used that money to run the NHS for like 5 seconds, what a huge scandal
January 8, 2026 at 7:30 PM
Oh no we could've used that money to run the NHS for like 5 seconds, what a huge scandal
It's crazy that media outlets are doing seat projections when Reforms lead is only 5 points and we're 4 years out from a general election.
If Labour come back and win, it wouldn't even register in the top 1000 political comebacks.
If Labour come back and win, it wouldn't even register in the top 1000 political comebacks.
December 23, 2025 at 10:04 AM
It's crazy that media outlets are doing seat projections when Reforms lead is only 5 points and we're 4 years out from a general election.
If Labour come back and win, it wouldn't even register in the top 1000 political comebacks.
If Labour come back and win, it wouldn't even register in the top 1000 political comebacks.
Lobby journalists are the most entitled group of people in the country imo.
They pretend like they have the most important job ever, even though all they do is twist everything to fit whatever narrative they want to push. They're a net negative to society and dont deserve their influence.
They pretend like they have the most important job ever, even though all they do is twist everything to fit whatever narrative they want to push. They're a net negative to society and dont deserve their influence.
December 18, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Lobby journalists are the most entitled group of people in the country imo.
They pretend like they have the most important job ever, even though all they do is twist everything to fit whatever narrative they want to push. They're a net negative to society and dont deserve their influence.
They pretend like they have the most important job ever, even though all they do is twist everything to fit whatever narrative they want to push. They're a net negative to society and dont deserve their influence.
Feel like my prediction from a month ago was pretty accurate.
There's now a 50/50 chance of a Feb cut. I think with lower oil/gas prices and softening food inflation, we could see both a Feb and April cut. Still think the bank is putting too much emphasis on inflation and not enough on unemployment
There's now a 50/50 chance of a Feb cut. I think with lower oil/gas prices and softening food inflation, we could see both a Feb and April cut. Still think the bank is putting too much emphasis on inflation and not enough on unemployment
This along with the unemployment data guarantees a december interest rate cut. Also think the BOE might accelerate rate cuts going into next year, potentially bringing us to the neutral rate of 2.5% by the end of 2026/early 2027
December 18, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Feel like my prediction from a month ago was pretty accurate.
There's now a 50/50 chance of a Feb cut. I think with lower oil/gas prices and softening food inflation, we could see both a Feb and April cut. Still think the bank is putting too much emphasis on inflation and not enough on unemployment
There's now a 50/50 chance of a Feb cut. I think with lower oil/gas prices and softening food inflation, we could see both a Feb and April cut. Still think the bank is putting too much emphasis on inflation and not enough on unemployment
The opinion of a former MPC member does not matter.
Out of the 9 current MPC memebers, 4 are predicted to vote for a cut, 4 for a hold, with Andrew Bailey (the governor of the BOE) as the swing vote. As Bailey has indicated that he favours lowering rates, you should expect a cut tommorow.
Out of the 9 current MPC memebers, 4 are predicted to vote for a cut, 4 for a hold, with Andrew Bailey (the governor of the BOE) as the swing vote. As Bailey has indicated that he favours lowering rates, you should expect a cut tommorow.
December 17, 2025 at 11:57 AM
The opinion of a former MPC member does not matter.
Out of the 9 current MPC memebers, 4 are predicted to vote for a cut, 4 for a hold, with Andrew Bailey (the governor of the BOE) as the swing vote. As Bailey has indicated that he favours lowering rates, you should expect a cut tommorow.
Out of the 9 current MPC memebers, 4 are predicted to vote for a cut, 4 for a hold, with Andrew Bailey (the governor of the BOE) as the swing vote. As Bailey has indicated that he favours lowering rates, you should expect a cut tommorow.
Think its pretty clear that the disinformation is Russian funded considering the scale at which it is pushed on social media.
This, alongside things such as the arson attack on Starmer's family home, shows how serious the threat is and needs the media to take a stand against reposting these lies.
This, alongside things such as the arson attack on Starmer's family home, shows how serious the threat is and needs the media to take a stand against reposting these lies.
December 13, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Think its pretty clear that the disinformation is Russian funded considering the scale at which it is pushed on social media.
This, alongside things such as the arson attack on Starmer's family home, shows how serious the threat is and needs the media to take a stand against reposting these lies.
This, alongside things such as the arson attack on Starmer's family home, shows how serious the threat is and needs the media to take a stand against reposting these lies.
I mean you can look at Wes Streeting's recent comments about the BMA RDC chair and you can see that the BMA is being anything but neutral. She has shown me the correspondence from the BMA and they are definitely pushing members to vote no - even if their official position is to be neutral.
December 11, 2025 at 4:12 PM
I mean you can look at Wes Streeting's recent comments about the BMA RDC chair and you can see that the BMA is being anything but neutral. She has shown me the correspondence from the BMA and they are definitely pushing members to vote no - even if their official position is to be neutral.
Interesting that the supposedly now neutral chair of Ofcom Michael Grade is voting along party lines. Surely no issue to see there.
December 11, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Interesting that the supposedly now neutral chair of Ofcom Michael Grade is voting along party lines. Surely no issue to see there.
Maybe officially they aren't, but she told me that through the email with the offer and messaging since, the BMA said that because there is no movement on pay, members should vote no.
December 10, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Maybe officially they aren't, but she told me that through the email with the offer and messaging since, the BMA said that because there is no movement on pay, members should vote no.
Important to note that the BMA are recommending its members to vote no on friday. Source: my sister is a BMA member
December 10, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Important to note that the BMA are recommending its members to vote no on friday. Source: my sister is a BMA member
I would assume there's a ton of bureaucracy involved with every new account that is set up/managed which is why this process is taking so long. Despite that, I think think Tim Allan is doing a good job as his new comms director and hopefully the improvements keep on coming.
December 9, 2025 at 10:29 AM
I would assume there's a ton of bureaucracy involved with every new account that is set up/managed which is why this process is taking so long. Despite that, I think think Tim Allan is doing a good job as his new comms director and hopefully the improvements keep on coming.
The most frustrating thing is the media could make these charts themselves, its not like they're lacking in resources to do so.
Yet they will cover small boats extensively but cherry pick data and completely change their methodology in order to fit editorial lines.
Drives me insane.
Yet they will cover small boats extensively but cherry pick data and completely change their methodology in order to fit editorial lines.
Drives me insane.
December 1, 2025 at 10:03 PM
The most frustrating thing is the media could make these charts themselves, its not like they're lacking in resources to do so.
Yet they will cover small boats extensively but cherry pick data and completely change their methodology in order to fit editorial lines.
Drives me insane.
Yet they will cover small boats extensively but cherry pick data and completely change their methodology in order to fit editorial lines.
Drives me insane.
Ever since Reform started dropping in the polls in the past few weeks the hysteria from the media and opposition parties has gone into overdrive.
They can see what I see as well, which is lower rates and lower inflation over the next few years, which means higher consumer confidence and growth.
They can see what I see as well, which is lower rates and lower inflation over the next few years, which means higher consumer confidence and growth.
December 1, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Ever since Reform started dropping in the polls in the past few weeks the hysteria from the media and opposition parties has gone into overdrive.
They can see what I see as well, which is lower rates and lower inflation over the next few years, which means higher consumer confidence and growth.
They can see what I see as well, which is lower rates and lower inflation over the next few years, which means higher consumer confidence and growth.
They could've redone their productivity modelling at the start of last year and it would've stopped Hunt from putting in last minute massive NI tax cuts which left a massive hole for Labour to fill at the next budget.
November 28, 2025 at 1:18 PM
They could've redone their productivity modelling at the start of last year and it would've stopped Hunt from putting in last minute massive NI tax cuts which left a massive hole for Labour to fill at the next budget.