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Ronald Steenblik

@ronsteenblik.bsky.social

2.2K followers 850 following 5.6K posts

Retired OECD staff member. I post on trade, environment, energy (especially fossil fuel subsidies). Supporting QUNO's work on identifying & reducing subsidies to #plastics. Commenting in my personal capacity. Once told by Mel Brooks: "You have no taste!"

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · Oct 15

1⃣ Since 2013, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published biennially global estimates of what they call "explicit" and "implicit" #FossilFuelSubsidies.

Those estimates are widely cited, but also widely misinterpreted & misrepresented. And some things they include shouldn't be.

A long 🧵.

Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Subsidies are intended to protect consumers by keeping prices low, but they come at a high cost. Subsidies have sizable fiscal costs (leading to higher taxes/borrowing or lower spending), promote inef...

www.imf.org

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 21h

… are not how economists use those terms. An example of an indirect subsidy is one with a pass-through component, such as a per-km subsidy for commuters that indirectly benefits the consumption of fuel (or electricity).

Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 21h

… IMF numbers without a normal dose of skepticism ($760 billion would be on par with annual U.S. military spending), and so when AI goes to look for numbers it regurgitates a dog’s breakfast.

Note: the definitions of “direct” and “indirect” subsidies in that AI response …

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 21h

Oof! Where do I begin? AI should never be the go-to source for information, especially in this case. The IMF has, essentially flooded the zone with 💩, and thousands of web sites, bloggers, journalists (esp. at The Guardian), and even politicians (esp. @whitehouse.senate.gov) just simplify the …

Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 22h

Ha! Always promised, rarely delivered.

Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 22h

The song may remain the same, but it still needs to be heard.

a man with blonde hair and a beard is making a funny face

ALT: a man with blonde hair and a beard is making a funny face

media.tenor.com

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 22h

My quest in “retirement” is to get the world to minimize the use of stuff like this.

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Reposted by Ronald Steenblik

Joseph Britt @zathras5.bsky.social · 23h

Trump, having wrecked US farmers’ export markets, prepares another bailout.

“Republican lawmakers have estimated that, this time around, farmers could need as much as $50 billion in economic support. Where that money will come from remains an open question.” Link via @profsecchi.bsky.social

Silvia Secchi @profsecchi.bsky.social · 23h

Just a reminder that there’s peer-reviewed evidence that in the last go round of aid to farmers because of tariffs, the payments they got were higher than the losses.
Pretty much the epitome of inefficiency and rent-seeking behavior. The Chinese aren’t going to buy 🇺🇸 ag products for a looong time.

Trump to Unveil Farmer Aid as China Shuns U.S. Crops

www.nytimes.com

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 23h

I was hoping you’d come in on this, Silvia. 💪🏽

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Reposted by Ronald Steenblik

Silvia Secchi @profsecchi.bsky.social · 23h

Trump to Unveil Farmer Aid as China Shuns U.S. Crops

www.nytimes.com

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 2d

… been just as large if all vehicles on U.S. roads had been EVs. They aren’t fossil-fuel related externalities, much less “subsidies”.

See my 📌ed skeet for more.

Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 2d

… CONSUMERS of fossil fuels should have paid in (non existent) carbon and other taxes.

Moreover, some 45% of that number is not even related to combustion, but to driving, even though those non-taxed “vehicle externalities” — congestion (time wasted sitting in traffic) and accidents would have …

Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 2d

The IMF actually never says that. Their estimate of federal “producer subsidies” is just $3 billion (an undercount: the real number is at least $20 billion). The rest, $754 billion are not “subsidies” by any standard definition of the term, but the Fund’s estimate of how much more it reckons U.S. …

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Reposted by Ronald Steenblik

Gil Durán @gilduran.com · 2d

Terrified Curtis Yarvin—the “philosopher behind JD Vance”—plans to flee the USA.

The Dork Enlightenment guru says the Trump administration is failing to go full authoritarian.

“I feel that I personally have to start thinking realistically about how to flee the country.”

From Yarvin's Substack: The second Trump revolution, like the first, is failing. It is failing because it deserves to fail. It is failing because it spends all its time patting itself on the back. It is failing because its true mission, which neither it nor (still less) its supporters understand, is still as far beyond its reach as algebra is beyond a cat. Because the vengeance meted out after its failure will dwarf the vengeance after 2020—because the successes of the second revolution are so much greater than the first—I feel that I personally have to start thinking realistically about how to flee the country. Everyone else in a similar position should have a 2029 plan as well. And it is not even clear that it will wait until 2029: losing the Congress will instantly put the administration on the defensive.

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 2d

Meta, even.

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 2d

What are they mainly made of? If plastic, that’s not good.

Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 2d

It's Chapter 30 of the book "Reckoning and Renewal: The World Trade Organization and Its Dispute Settlement System at 30: Essays in Honour of Valerie Hughes", superbly organised and edited by @nicolaslamp.bsky.social.

utppublishing.com

Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 2d

... and how the recently concluded quadrilateral Agreement on Climate Change, Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS) could help guide the FFSR’s work in the future — has been uploaded and is available open access.

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 2d

Yay! My book chapter ("Emerging into the Light: Fossil Fuel Subsidies at the WTO") — which explores the pathways that have brought fossil fuel subsidies to the WTO, progress made by the forty-eight WTO Members of the Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform (FFSR) Initiative through March 2025, ...

utppublishing.com

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 2d

I'm not arguing with what you wrote, just seeking clarity. What happens if an "illegal alien" — unconscious or otherwise badly hurt as a result of an accident — is taken to an emergency room of a hospital for treatment. Surely they are not denied care?

Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 3d

Then the question to policymakers is even more “When are you going to start seriously TAXING fossil fuels?” than “When are you going to stop subsidizing fossil fuels?”, as much as ending the $35 billion (not $3 billion) a year in fossil fuel producer subsidies would be a good start.

Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 3d

By the way, that doesn’t even include the hundreds of billions of dollars of health costs associated with the USA’s consumption of plastics, 99% of which are course manufactured from fossil fuels.

Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 3d

Isn’t far more clear — and more comprehensible to people — to say that the USA’s consumption of fossil fuels is causing hundreds of billions of dollars a year in costs related to health and climate change?

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 3d

… other nuisances; the spreading of disease; all the externalities associated with war; and of course adverse climate effects — then they would certainly exceed 50% of global GDP and could conceivably exceed 100%.

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Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 3d

The IMF speaks of their fossil fuels as 6% of global GDP, which is a nonsensical number. It is partial. If one were to add up the social costs of all externalities generated by human activities — habitat destruction; all pollution of air, water and soil; noise pollution; light pollution; odor and …

Ronald Steenblik @ronsteenblik.bsky.social · 3d

If I knowingly have the flu yet board a crowded bus and sneeze openly, causing a dozen fellow passengers to also contract the flu, some having to spend money for treatment and losing income from work, I am imposing social costs on others. But am I being subsidized? If so, by whom?