NEW – Experts: Which climate tipping point is the most concerning? | @ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org

Read here: buff.ly/LkitgK7

And also presenting a poster the last few evenings on my most recent paper looking at AMOC tipping using quasipotentials and exploring the idea of a geometric early warning

I had a wonderful time convening a session yesterday on Early Warning Signals: from Detection to Action. Some really excellent talks and discussion on such an important topic
@gsiexeter.bsky.social @exeter.ac.uk

We’re into the last day at the Global Tipping Points Conference. A great week of panels, talks and workshops discussing tipping points in physical and human systems. Some of it a bit scary, but always some hope that there is still time for change. #GTPConference

And a fun time presenting some of my PhD work to a new audience

Excellent week up in Edinburgh at @icms-edinburgh.bsky.social workshop on tipping points, and brilliant weather for our afternoon excursion mid-conference

Last week for abstracts! This promises to be an exciting, cross-disciplinary conference with lots of opportunity for discussion on all types of tipping point research

Finally, we speculate on the effects of combining noise and transient forcing, where the geometric signal needs to be understood in a probabilistic sense.

We also explore this model in the presence of noise by numerically computing quasipotentials that characterize the noise-induced transitions between different attractors.

We apply this to a simple but data-adapted model of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to highlight cases of large transient forcing where one may be able to predict the future state in advance, using this geometric early warning signal.

We introduce a geometric signal that enables one to understand behavior near an edge state on a threshold that lies between two basins of attraction.

Transient forcing of a nonlinear dynamical system can give rise to very different future stable behaviors for small changes in forcing. In this paper, we explore the potential to find early warnings of parameter-dependent tipping between such different behaviors for such small changes in forcing.

My final paper from my PhD has been published online today!

Quantifying tipping behavior: Geometric early warnings and quasipotentials for a box model of AMOC
doi.org/10.1063/5.02...
@exeter.ac.uk

🌊 Today in @nature.com: Is the AMOC on the brink of collapse?

Unlikely before 2100—but the risks are real 🚨

We find Southern Ocean winds keep this vital ocean "heat engine" running, even under extreme #climatechange. But the Pacific holds a surprise…

tinyurl.com/yt6u4e7d
Let’s explore 🧪👇

I am convening a session with @paulritchie.bsky.social (University of Exeter) and Florian Diekert (University of Augsburg) on ‘Early Warning Signals for Tipping Points: From Detection to Action’. We welcome all abstract submissions and look forward to an interesting discussion around this topic.

The call for abstracts and registration for the Global Tipping Points Conference 2025 (30 June – 3 July, Exeter, UK) are now open.
global-tipping-points.org/conference-2...
The deadline for abstract submission is Wednesday 19th March.

Global Tipping Points Conference 2025

This conference is a ‘call to action’ to the research community, policymakers, and business to raise awareness and understanding of the importance of tipping points and to accelerate the required action.
@gsiexeter.bsky.social @exeter.ac.uk #academicsky

🔊 Registration and the call for abstracts for the Global #TippingPoints conference 2025 @exeter.ac.uk (30 June-3 July 2025) is now open! View the full programme & register now via our website: global-tipping-points.org/conference-2... @pik-potsdam.bsky.social @maxplanck.de

Explainer: Nine ‘tipping points’ that could be triggered by climate change | @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org @tomoprater.carbonbrief.org @rospearce.bsky.social #CBarchive

Read here ➡️ https://buff.ly/3a0XveI

An excellent start to a week visiting back in Exeter. Collected a bound copy of my thesis, a Dean’s commendation for PGR academic citizenship and a seminar given on my last PhD paper ‘Quantifying tipping behaviour: geometric early warnings and quasipotentials for a box model of AMOC’ @exeter.ac.uk

Disappointing progress at COP29....
news.exeter.ac.uk/faculty-of-e...

Thanks to my collaborators on this work, Peter Ashwin, @jonbaker303.bsky.social and Richard Wood. @uniofexeter.bsky.social @metoffice.bsky.social

In this study, we quantify noise for a conceptual AMOC model from CMIP6 experiments. We find that the noise on relevant time and spatial scales is small and unlikely to induce a tipping of this model unless combined with some freshwater forcing.

It's my first day here on Bluesky, and what an excellent way to start with another paper being published. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...