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Reposted by Ryan McCrystal

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 23h

Best P4 offenses at avoiding 3rd down

Vandy, 69%
Notre Dame, 66%
USC, 66%
Arkansas, 66%
Rutgers, 65%👀
Cincinnati, 63%
Ohio State, 63%
Ole Miss, 63%

and worst..
Wake Forest, 42%
Houston, 42%
OK State, 43%
VT, 45%
Maryland, 46%
Stanford, 47%
WVU, 48%

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 15h

You know what? Having heard his rambling at press conferences lately, I find this believable 😆

The New York Times @nytimes.com · 16h

From @theathletic.com: The NFL has fined Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones $250,000 for flashing his middle finger to the crowd during Sunday’s game against the New York Jets. Jones, who can appeal the fine, said that he actually meant to signal a thumbs-up.

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones says middle finger was accidental: ‘The intention was thumbs-up’

Jones said his middle finger gesture was “unfortunate" and not intended during the Cowboys' win against the Jets.

nyti.ms

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Reposted by Ryan McCrystal

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 23h

I like this stat is to provide more context for 3rd down defense.

3rd-down defense is often a go-to stat for assessing defensive success... but does it really matter if you're allowing 1st downs on 1st and 2nd down?

Here are the top 5 defenses in 3rd down conv rate vs their 3rd down avoidance

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 18h

writing about Ohio State is frustrating because autocorrect absolutely refuses to believe I could ever intend to write "Sayin" without a g

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 18h

I agree with this take. Kinda feels like everybody wins. Bengals get to play a QB who is not Jake Browning. Browns get something for nothing. Flacco gets to start again.

Sure, the Bengals suck and this probably won't make it much better. But it's ok to try!

Bill Barnwell @billbarnwell.com · 19h

The Bengals were getting booed vociferously out of their own stadium last week and are desperate to try anything that isn't Jake Browning. It doesn't have to be more complicated than that!

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 18h

Rahne spent a decade with Franklin at Vandy and Penn State before getting the ODU job. He hasn't crushed it at ODU, but they've been improving and it looks like they might be taking a leap forward this year. They were surprisingly competitive with Indiana.

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 18h

There's a pretty good chance someone hires ODU head coach Ricky Rahne and his OC Kevin Decker this year.

He should be on VT's radar. If Franklin leaves Penn State, Rahne could be a dark horse for that job. But at worst, I bet he steps up a level in G5. Maybe Memphis if Silverfield leaves?

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 22h

Old Dominion RBs have faced a box with 6 or fewer defenders on 95% of their carries.

That is incredible. The FBS average is 55%.

I'm guessing all or most of the 5% comes from short-yardage situations too. Coaches around the country should be studying that offense this offseason.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 19h

Opponent-adjusted QB rushing yards for West Virginia

Jaylen Henderson, 9% above expected
Khalil Wilkins, 17% below expected
Nicco Marchiol, 51% below expected (dead last in FBS)

Says a lot about why Year 1 has been tough for Rich Rod. But hopefully we see more Henderson soon once he's healthy

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Reposted by Ryan McCrystal

Inside Carolina @insidecarolina.bsky.social · 20h

UNC, Hulu Not Moving Forward With Season Documentary

North Carolina announced in August that it would do a season-long documentary to showcase the team.

dlvr.it

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 20h

I would argue this is a fundamental feature of college football. Every fan base has a mile-long list of hyped recruits who were gonna help turn around the program and flopped.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 20h

I’m sorry, what??

DJ Uiagalelei was literally in college last year. You have to go back exactly one year to find the last high-profile flop in the game.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 20h

The premise of this article is absurd. Not only is it not unprecedented, it was always the most likely outcome. Most 5-star quarterbacks fail. And even the ones who succeed usually aren’t superstars from Day 1.

Is Arch Manning college football’s first flop? Why his slow start feels unprecedented

Arch has started seven games, and we already think he stinks. This is the logical next step in the increased professionalization of CFB.

www.nytimes.com

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 22h

it just occurred to me that Bill Belichick is to college football what Lou Holtz is to the NFL.

Both tried to bring their version of football to the other sport and immediately faceplanted in the most spectacularly embarrassing fashion.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 22h

Old Dominion RBs have faced a box with 6 or fewer defenders on 95% of their carries.

That is incredible. The FBS average is 55%.

I'm guessing all or most of the 5% comes from short-yardage situations too. Coaches around the country should be studying that offense this offseason.

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 23h

(should call it 3rd Down Force Rate for defense and 3rd Down Avoidance Rate for offense? Open to suggestions on that. Not sure I've seen the stat referenced elsewhere, so I'm still figuring out the best way to refer to it?)

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 23h

Paints a very different picture of Nebraska and Texas A&M doesn't it?

Normally we'd talk about those 5 defenses as being similarly strong if they're all ranked high 3rd-down conversion rate. But clearly OU, OSU and Mizzou have been in a different class than Nebraska and A&M so far

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 23h

I like this stat is to provide more context for 3rd down defense.

3rd-down defense is often a go-to stat for assessing defensive success... but does it really matter if you're allowing 1st downs on 1st and 2nd down?

Here are the top 5 defenses in 3rd down conv rate vs their 3rd down avoidance

1 3 5

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 23h

I'm never sure the best way to succinctly explain this stat, so if it's not clear, this means on 69% of Vandy's sets of downs there is no 3rd down play.

Technically turnovers can account for a small portion of that, but mostly it's bc teams are getting a 1st down or scoring on 1st and 2nd down.

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 23h

Best P4 offenses at avoiding 3rd down

Vandy, 69%
Notre Dame, 66%
USC, 66%
Arkansas, 66%
Rutgers, 65%👀
Cincinnati, 63%
Ohio State, 63%
Ole Miss, 63%

and worst..
Wake Forest, 42%
Houston, 42%
OK State, 43%
VT, 45%
Maryland, 46%
Stanford, 47%
WVU, 48%

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Another remarkable turnaround in 3rd-and-long avoidance

2024 Florida State - ranked 134th
2025 Florida State - ranked 18th

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Utah's offense is second in the nation with 12.2% rate of reaching third and long.

The Utes ranked 122nd last year! (27.5%)

Jason Beck was a fantastic hire by Whittingham.

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Lowest rate of reaching 3rd-and-long in P4 vs P4 games

Utah - 2.9% vs UCLA
Cal - 6.5% vs BC
Ohio State - 6.7% vs MINN
Clemson - 8.0% vs GT
Utah - 8.1% WVU

So many thoughts here... Clemson lost to GT after that?? Utah's offense is that efficient?!

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Lowest rate of reaching 3rd-and-long in P4 vs P4 games

Utah - 2.9% vs UCLA
Cal - 6.5% vs BC
Ohio State - 6.7% vs MINN
Clemson - 8.0% vs GT
Utah - 8.1% WVU

So many thoughts here... Clemson lost to GT after that?? Utah's offense is that efficient?!

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

There have been 8 instances in FBS vs FBS games of a defense forcing its opponent into 3rd and long on at least 50% of its sets of downs.

Missouri's done it twice (vs UMass and Louisiana)

Sure, those aren't great teams. But a lot of good teams have have played bad teams and didn't do it even once

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Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

UCLA has forced opponents into 3rd and long on 13% of sets of downs, ranked dead last in FBS.

The Bruins forced Penn State into 3rd and long on just 3 of 27 sets of downs (11%).

How did Penn State find a way to lose that game?!

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Reposted by Ryan McCrystal

Ryan McCrystal @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social · 1d

Here are the highest scoring teams in CFB relative to their opponents scoring defense against everyone else

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