Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Darren Croft @darrencroft.bsky.social · 15d

We are hiring - PDRA position exploring how information access shapes social dynamics in killer whales. Collaboration with @samellisq.bsky.social @drwhale.bsky.social Prof Dan Franks (York) start 1st Nov (or ASAP) end 31st Oct 2028. Apps close on 19th Oct.

www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DOT336/p...

1 44 30

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · Aug 25

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?

Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities

Abstract
Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models).

Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve.

A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals).

Illustrated are
1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals
2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and
3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.

49 280 940

Sam Ellis @samellisq.bsky.social · Aug 29

Pleasure and honour to have the opportunity to discuss some of the work we have been doing on over the last few years.

Thanks to @behaviour2025.bsky.social for the invite (and great conference), @asab.org for the funding and everyone who turned up to listen at 9am on day 5.

ASAB @asab.org · Aug 29

It may be 9am on Day 5, but of course nobody couldn’t miss @samellisq.bsky.social’s fascinating plenary on menopause in whales! 😍👵🐳 #Behaviour2025

Sam in front of a slide reading Social behaviour, and the evolution of menopause in toothed whales

1 6

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Lauren Brent @ljnbrent.bsky.social · Aug 27

Animal Behaviour from Exeter and Bristol, plus some of our alumni, went to @behaviour2025.bsky.social in Kolkata and had mountains of rice. @crab-exeter.bsky.social @bristolbiosci.bsky.social @uniexecec.bsky.social

5 27

Sam Ellis @samellisq.bsky.social · Aug 20

It was a real pleasure to have accidently been involved in Joe Wilde's (not here) paper published last week: doi.org/10.1098/rspb...

It has terrifying Bayesian Hidden Markov Models, important insights about dynamic sexual signalling, and a robot crab called "Wavey Dave"- what's not to love?

3

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Kate Laskowski @katelaskowski.bsky.social · Aug 7

BEHAVIOR IS THE WAY

Andrej Spiridonov @andrejpaleo.bsky.social · Aug 7

Exhilarating to see organismal agency in evolution at such a large scale! Organisms chose where to live and what to eat, and only after tens of thousands of generations and after much later speciation events the efficiency was achieved
www.science.org/doi/epdf/10....
🧪 ⚒️ #Geology #Paleobio #EvoBio

Testing the three pillars of behavioral drive.

9 25

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Daniel Redhead @danielredhead.bsky.social · Aug 4

🐒🕸️ New preprint! Confused about how to model animal social networks?

ASNA can be confusing—but also full of opportunity. We break down 5 common misunderstandings in animal social network analysis and share solutions from behavioural ecology, anthro, stats, & network science. Hope it helps!

A 🧵

Five misunderstandings in animal social network analysis

ecoevorxiv.org

2 23 43

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Lauren Brent @ljnbrent.bsky.social · Aug 6

I learned a lot working on this new paper with this group of network scientists, sociologists, anthropologists and behavioural ecologists. We're hoping it helps anyone who feels (understandably!) lost in the animal social networks weeds.

Daniel Redhead @danielredhead.bsky.social · Aug 4

🐒🕸️ New preprint! Confused about how to model animal social networks?

ASNA can be confusing—but also full of opportunity. We break down 5 common misunderstandings in animal social network analysis and share solutions from behavioural ecology, anthro, stats, & network science. Hope it helps!

A 🧵

Five misunderstandings in animal social network analysis

ecoevorxiv.org

8 25

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Robin Morrison @robinmorrison.bsky.social · Aug 6

Loved listening to this discussion, and so pleased our research on the gorillas monitored by @savinggorillas.bsky.social, led by the fantastic Vic Martignac is resonating with so many!

Gilly Forrester @gillyforrester.bsky.social · Aug 6

On the radio this morning #BBC Radio Sussex with Sarah Gorrell chatting about a new study about gorilla female relationships from researchers at University of Zurich: royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...

You can listen here by rewinding to 10:38

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Dispersed female networks: female gorillas’ inter-group relationships influence dispersal decisions | Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Dispersal is a fundamental aspect of many animal societies, impacting gene flow, knowledge transmission, culture and individual fitness. However, little is known about the information individuals use ...

royalsocietypublishing.org

1 3 5

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Laura Kelley @lauraakelley.bsky.social · Jul 29

‪Come join us at the @asab.org Winter Conference 2025: how sensory info affects behaviour.

15th & 16th Dec, abstracts due end Aug. More info and registration asabwinter.github.io/2025

Co-hosted with @jtroscianko.bsky.social and Innes Cuthill

1 11 24

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · Jul 9

Geology Murder

xkcd.com/3112/

Comic. [two people in labcoats look at body pierced with blade draped over bench] PERSON 1: We found him lying uncomformably on the lab bench. I wonder if the iron-rich intrusion in his back is related. PERSON 2 with ponytail: It could be clastic. Maybe a rift opened in his body, and the intrusive material later fell into the hole. [caption] The Geology Department Investigates Their First Murder

50 880 5.8K

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Dieter Lukas @dieterlukas.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy · Jul 8

Our #study finds that #male #dominance isn't the norm among #primates, and starts to unravel what shapes flexibility in intersexual power

paper (OA) https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2500405122

press release https://www.mpg.de/24986976/0630-evan-beyond-the-alpha-male-150495-x?c=2249

3 50 75

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Randall Munroe @xkcd.com · Jun 12

Good Science

xkcd.com/3101/

5-panel comic. (1) [teacher with long hair next to whiteboard] TEACHER: I’m supposed to give you the tools to do good science. (2) [teacher addressing students] But what *are* those tools? Methodology is hard and there are so many ways to get incorrect results. What is the magic ingredient that makes for good science? (3) TEACHER: To figure it out, I ran a regression with all the factors people say are important: [embedded list in sub-panel, cut off at end] Outcome variable: correct scientific results. Predictors: collaboration; skepticism of others’ claims; questioning your own beliefs; trying to falsify hypotheses; checking citations; statistical rigor; blinded analysis; financial disclosure; open data (4) TEACHER: The regression says two ingredients are the most crucial: 1) genuine curiosity about the answer to a question, and 2) ammonium hydroxide. (5) STUDENT: Wait, why did *ammonia* score so high? How did it even get on the list? LONG HAIR: ...And now you’re doing good science!

24 630 3.5K

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Stephen Montgomery @ebablab.bsky.social · Jun 4

🚨Anyone want a job?🚨
We have two #postdocs up for grabs! 🧪
- cell developmental biology/#evodevo/#neuroevodevo
- bioinformatics and molecular biology
Both working on brain evolution in Heliconiini butterflies
Details below! Please repost 🙏 1/n

1 96 67

Sam Ellis @samellisq.bsky.social · Jun 6

Thanks to the editors and reviewers for their support, comments and forbearance over the years (!, I might have underestimated how my first couple of years of teaching would impact my time to respond to reviewers...)

1 2

Sam Ellis @samellisq.bsky.social · Jun 6

Using this method we were able to estimate the lifespans of 32 Female and 33 Male species of toothed whale. Data and methods in these R packages:

github.com/samellisq/ma...
github.com/samellisq/ma...

1 2

Sam Ellis @samellisq.bsky.social · Jun 6

In the paper we develop Bayesian methods to infer the underlying mortality function of toothed whales from age-structured data, while carrying through potential sources of error into the final estimates.

1 2

Sam Ellis @samellisq.bsky.social · Jun 6

Very excited to see our paper using historical data to infer toothed whale lifespans published this week in the Biological Journal of the Linnaean Society (@biojlinnsoc.bsky.social)

doi.org/10.1093/biol...

w. @darrencroft.bsky.social @drwhale.bsky.social @mialybkaer.bsky.social, Dan Franks

2 11 21

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Lauren Brent @ljnbrent.bsky.social · May 13

How good is it to get work with this lovely group of people in @crab-exeter.bsky.social every day? Answer: really really good!

2 11

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com · May 9

it's published! finally! in this week's newsletter: my attempt to go through every single reason why I both dislike and distrust generative AI: youngvulgarian.substack.com/p/11-things-... [free to read!]

29 130 470

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Elva Robinson @elvarobinson.bsky.social · May 7

Did you know about these tiny shiny ants (red arrow) living with wood ants (blue arrow)? They are Shining Guest Ants (Formicoxenus) and we have recently discovered that a wood ant nest can be home to several genetically distinct colonies of these 'guests'! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/author... 1/5

A large wood ant, with a dull black gaster and head, and dull brown thorax, is on a pale stone background, and indicated by a blue arrow. Next to it a much smaller ant with a shiny back gaster and shiny brown head and thorax is indicated by a red arrow. The blue arrow at is the wood ant Formica lugubris and the red arrow at is the shining guest ant Formicoxenus nitidulus.

2 14 43

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Lauren Brent @ljnbrent.bsky.social · May 2

Postdoc job alert! I'm hiring a 3-yr postdoc to work on our Social Modifiers of Primate Lifespans grant. Job info and how to apply below. Deadline June 1. Pls share! jobs.exeter.ac.uk/hrpr_webrecr...

Powered by MHR

jobs.exeter.ac.uk

1 77 45

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Robin Morrison @robinmorrison.bsky.social · May 7

Thrilled to have the 1st project in my @snsf-ch.bsky.social Ambizione fellowship in @pnas.org this week. With Vic Martignac, @samellisq.bsky.social and @savinggorillas.bsky.social we asked what is a good social environment for a gorilla? And the answer was complicated... www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Group traits moderate the relationship between individual social traits and fitness in gorillas | PNAS

Evidence across a broad range of disciplines has demonstrated how individuals’ social environments can impact their health, lifespan, reproduction,...

www.pnas.org

2 15 29

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Stephanie L King @stephanielking.bsky.social · Mar 26

🐳 UPCOMING BOOK ALERT 🐬
The Evolution of Cetacean Societies

Edited by @darrencroft.bsky.social @andrewfoote.bsky.social @ellengarland.bsky.social and myself

Preorder available now
press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...

#whale #dolphin #animalbehaviour

3 36 120

Reposted by Sam Ellis

Lauren Brent @ljnbrent.bsky.social · Feb 21

Bake your paper! Research tech extraordinaire, Macaela Skelton, made a cake of (some of) the study sites in the MacaqueNet database. She ran out of decorations before she could do them all 😆. Link to the paper that's been cake-ified: besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

5 22