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Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 4d

State aid costs will rise with electrification:

⚡ More is already needed for Portugal’s “green” hydrogen
💰 More countries will follow
📈 Expanding to more sectors would worsen things

👉 Our proposal: Reform state aid before extending

🔗 EC: tinyurl.com/2fxpa7ca
🔗 Brief: tinyurl.com/4v5ddc6m

Daily News 23 \/ 09 \/ 2025

Europe inaugurates its second quantum computer\nToday, the EU has launched its new VLQ quantum computer in Ostrava, Czechia, representing a major milestone for the Quantum Strategy to make Europe a gl...

tinyurl.com

Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 4d

🇵🇹 Portugal’s state aid bill will exceed 25% of ETS revenues — by far.

The EU just approved a €100m boost to Portugal’s compensation for ETS costs to electricity users. But this support is fiscally unsustainable.

With France & Portugal above the 25% limit, which country is next?

#EUETS

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Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 8d

Art. 9 – carbon price abroad

CBAM deductions must reflect real carbon costs.

• Apply only when facilities directly pay for emissions
• Exclude payments claimed for corporate neutrality
• Discount all forms of support, incl. from parent entity

Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 8d

Art. 31 – solution

Sandbag calls for
product-based free allocation (at least for flat & long steel).

This would ensure:

• Equal EU & import treatment
• Incentives to recycle scrap
• Closing loopholes

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Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 8d

Art. 31 – problem

Process-based free allocation (mirroring ETS) risks loopholes – e.g. DRI vs scrap in steel.

The Commission plans: use new CBAM product-based benchmarks.

This risks unequal treatment of EU & imports.

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Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 8d

Art. 7 – electricity imports and indirect emissions

• Report “induced emissions” (marginal grid impact of production)
• Alternatively, apply default factors

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Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 8d

Art. 7 – direct emissions

CBAM reporting risks resource shuffling: cleaner inputs diverted to EU exports without real cuts.

We call for:

• Counting both pre- & post-consumer metal scrap
• Systematic default values for cement

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Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 8d

Sandbag’s response to the CBAM Calls for Evidence tackles risks of loopholes and uneven treatment. The call covered:

• Article 7 – Emissions reporting
• Article 31 – Adjustment for free allocation
• Article 9 – Carbon price paid abroad

👉 Read more here: sandbag.be/2025/09/30/s...

Sandbag’s Response to the CBAM Calls for Evidence

Sandbag responds to the CBAM consultations on emissions reporting, free allocation, and carbon pricing abroad with practical solutions.

sandbag.be

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Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 12d

Once price effects are factored in, net costs fall to just €160m (0.07% of exports).

Adrien Assous, Sandbag:

“The CBAM is often branded as a trade measure, but we very much see it as a climate measure because it's really about the internal EU carbon pricing system.”

#CBAM #CarbonPricing

CBAM Impact on US Trade: Sandbag’s Analysis

Sandbag’s latest analysis models the EU CBAM’s impact on US exports. Annual fees would total €351m under current scope — just 0.14% of 2023 trade — and drop to €160m after price effects. US carbon pri...

sandbag.be

Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 12d

Trade Finance Global highlights Sandbag’s new CBAM study:

📊 US exporters would face annual CBAM fees of around €351m (0.14% of exports to the EU) — far below the €4.3bn sometimes claimed.

👉 Report: sandbag.be/2025/09/24/c...

CBAM Impact on US Trade: Sandbag’s Analysis

Sandbag’s latest analysis models the EU CBAM’s impact on US exports. Annual fees would total €351m under current scope — just 0.14% of 2023 trade — and drop to €160m after price effects. US carbon pri...

sandbag.be

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Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 14d

Why? EU carbon costs are passed to buyers.

US exporters can raise prices too — limiting the real impact of CBAM.

❗It’s not just about fees — net costs matter.
🔗 Full analysis: sandbag.be/2025/09/24/c...

#CBAM #EUTrade #ClimatePolicy #CarbonMarkets

CBAM Impact on US Trade: Sandbag’s Analysis

Sandbag’s latest analysis models the EU CBAM’s impact on US exports. Annual fees would total €351m under current scope — just 0.14% of 2023 trade — and drop to €160m after price effects. US carbon pri...

sandbag.be

Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 14d

📦 CBAM’s impact on US trade? Lower than it seems.

Sandbag finds US exporters face €351m/yr in fees — just 0.14% of EU-bound trade.

📉 But after accounting for EU price effects, net costs fall to €160m (0.07%).

🧪 Aluminium even shows a net gain.

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Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 20d

📢 Sandbag and KAS discussed #CBAM issues with DG TAXUD, EU industry and non-EU countries:

• Whether and how the EU will address resource shuffling

• EU-US trade deal

• Challenges for third countries and EU

Full report 👉 sandbag.be/2025/08/25/t...

#EUETS

Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 25d

Sandbag report covered by Les Echos.

Industry could be “deprived of €35bn” by 2034. #CBAM will charge €11.3bn, but importers and Europeans alike will “reflect part of these costs in selling prices,” reducing the net impact to €5bn.

👉 Les Echos: tinyurl.com/t9dtttvh
📘 Report: tinyurl.com/yj9s4ja2

Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 29d

📰 Sandbag’s report as covered by Politico

CBAM's net costs to companies "far, far lower" than the €11.3bn charged for certificates, as CBAM will "likely push up prices" for goods such as steel and aluminium.

👉 Politico: pro.politico.eu/news/203508
📘 Report: sandbag.be/2025/08/25/t...

#CBAM

Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · 29d

📰 Sandbag’s report as covered by Politico

CBAM's net costs to companies "far, far lower" than the €11.3bn charged for certificates, as CBAM will "likely push up prices" for goods such as steel and aluminium.

👉 Politico: pro.politico.eu/news/203508
📘 Report: sandbag.be/2025/08/25/t...

#CBAM

Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · Sep 5

🗞️ Coverage of our CBAM report in @financialtimes.com

FT called it a “financial windfall from Brussels’ carbon border tax”.

The cost to third countries may fall from €11.3bn to €5bn — a €7bn gap from higher EU sales.

📖Report sandbag.be/2025/08/25/t...

🔗Article www.ft.com/content/7c74...

#CBAM

The EU CBAM: A Two-Way Street to Climate Integrity? - Sandbag

This report analyses the combined impact of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the phaseout of free allocation. It explores how exporters might adapt to minimise costs — and why ca...

sandbag.be

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Sandbag @sandbag-eu.bsky.social · Sep 3

📊 CBAM in the Headlines

Our report “The EU CBAM: A Two-Way Street to Climate Integrity?” featured in:

FT👉 lnkd.in/e3fvffhg
Politico👉 lnkd.in/e7p2BFth
Les Échos👉 lnkd.in/ei-8XqBq
Montel News👉 lnkd.in/eyMHuY8S
Carbon Pulse👉 lnkd.in/ea7ddGrp

📑 Full report here 👉 sandbag.be/2025/08/25/t...