Jumping over to the NY ISO's dashboard shows:
-day-ahead pricing had importing from Ontario half the price of importing from Quebec, and;
- the imports from ON are less than exports to QC and New England... with a 25% markup
2/2

the bad news is Enbridge's latest reporting of natural gas storage levels shows another big drawdown on a level already well below what is typical for the time of year.

Expect pricing to rise significantly if temperatures drop significantly.
2/2

and away goes Darlington 1 on a trip 😞

my basic reporting utilizing only IESO-controlled grid data is at: app.powerbi.com/view...

the more intense report with additional estimates including costs and distributed supply is: app.powerbi.com/view...
5/5

GA=Global Adjustment
defined as the difference between the committed cost of supply and the value recovered in sales on the market. A monthly charge since 2008, I have it trending to be a credit each of these past 2 weeks.
This does remarkable things to consumer rates
4/5

moving to reporting inclusive of estimates on distributed generation, curtailment, and costing...
there is an increase in supply costs due to higher spending on natural gas-fueled generators, but much of that increase is offset by export sales - and more likely to reduce GA

3/5

demand up ~200 GWh over comp week in 2024.
nuclear down that much, hydro down 100 GWh... so gas up ~400 GWh and imports up 100+ GWh

Not shown in this reporting: majority of imports came via Michigan interties, and majority of those looked wheeled through to QC and beyond
2/5

factors driving the market rate higher now include much lower than average storage levels of natural gas at Enbridge's DAWN hub (for this time of year) - as well as still not having availability for Quebec.
those factors and coal could explain imports from MI.

5/5

Large market rate (need to update naming for 2025 from HOEP to Day-ahead ON zone rate) = less cost transfer to class B (small) consumers from exporters and large "Class A" users (which include industry).

4/5

here's a format I've used for a while to summarize generation, cost, and (hugely diminished) curtailment.
While costs are up a little, as is demand, different consumer classes will see much different rate impacts (even if OEB delays them for a year with bad rate setting)
3/5

Imports notably rose, while exports fell (from the comp wk in 2024).
My page estimating what drove exports shows almost all the imports were wheeled through Ontario - which isn't strange.
most imports came from MI, and majority of exports were through interties with Quebec.
2/5

Net exports have grown, which I attribute mostly to the reduced hydro output of neighbouring Quebec.
That export/import change is as much a driver of higher gas use, and emissions, in Ontario's supply mix.
3/3

demand now is similar to what it was in 1989: generation higher.
Another graphic shows only the annual change to 1989. I focus on the sharp increase in fossil(gas) since 2021 headed back to the level of fossil(coal) in 1989, but note what's driving that...

2/3

Ontario’s energy regulator is been making nuclear expensive:
OPG roars to record profits on its nuclear while consumer pricing soars.

open.substack.com/pu...

2/2

Adding in estimates for distributed generators, curtailment and costs shows increased revenue on exported supply largely cancelling out the increased cost from gas generation
this reporting at app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrI...

3/3

YTD notables from the basic data (using IESO GOC hourly data):
2025 is already the record year for supply fueled by natural gas

link to my basic reporting: app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrI...

2/