New preprint: Climate Research Agendas Should Account for Anticipated AI Risks. I argue that AI timelines are shorter than climate timelines and since climate research is unique in focusing on such long horizons, this requires some adjustments from climate folks.

We also asked these climate experts to estimate the beliefs of their peers. There were strong correlations on all questions, suggesting that participants with very high or low estimates perceive their own beliefs as closer to the community average than they actually are.

We expected that researchers who worked on solutions (WG3) might be more optimistic than those working on adaptation (WG2), but found limited support for this hypothesis (differences were only significant between WG2 and WG3 for estimates of the likelihood of reaching 3°C)

Instead, the median estimate of maximum warming by 2100 was 2.7°C, which is consistent with modeling of the climate response to current national climate policies.