Passing on the cost to regional budgets is my guess. The federal government can appear to look frugal whilst the provincials look profligate.

Oops it was 5.6, you were right and I was underguessing

What do I win 😜

Very interesting. So it's not just cities vulnerable to drone attacks.

There's a mistake in the report. The central bank lowered its rate five times in 2025 not four. From 21% to 20% to 18% to 17% to 16.5% to 16%. So by 100bp then 200 then 100 then 50 then 50 again.

I remember this article about the railways possibly selling Moscow real estate as a precursor for a bailout.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8295562

Three reasons:
1. They're passing on some of the cost to regional governments
2. 2025 is the second year of war, first post 2022, where financial conditions improved in Q4 against Q1
3. One of those is the bond market on the Moscow Exchange. YTM is down so they seem happy with the MinFin's plan

4.5-5.5 federal. 7.5-8.5 consolidated.

Yep the central bank key rate

Thanks for the thread, very interesting.
Do you think the easing cycle is likely to continue at the same pace this year?

Repos aren't used for government spending. They support the P2P lending market between banks. It is tangentially related to the budget deficit in that banks also buy gov bonds but the weekly consumption of bonds does not marry with repo volumes at all.

Do you think weapons production growth counterbalances these numbers to get to an overall -0.7%?

Happy Christmas 😁🎄

Yep I agree.
It also helps to consider that it is banks who are the government's biggest bond buyers or financiers - and not exporters like Rosneft .etc
So the ru treasury, like any company really, needs to prioritise its stakeholders.

This is a very informative thread thank you

And yield spikes. A weaker ruble should also rout government bonds.

I don't see a table
Just a screenshot of a truncated URL