Taiwan's gov't is legitimate but they're still people inside Taiwan with help of CCP who support undermining that legitimacy.

At this point, what do they have to fear from the old man? Are they worried he will make the DPP even more unpopular?

That's why I worry as much if not more abt the threat from within, not without.

Worse, it will likely become known as the Donimo Theory.

/5 Barring changes in PRC, I assume tech advance to continue. Hopefully Taiwan can cont' to invest in systems to make invasion impossible but not sure what Taiwan can do to be less food/power dependent. Anyway, CCP didn't need yesterday to know the challenges of any mil op against Taiwan

/4 But much has changed in 30 years. Around this time in 96, when I was in Taiwan, the most CCP could do was fire missiles near Taiwan's major ports or in the Strait. Today, it has air and naval assets along with missiles to simulate a blockade of entire island and offshore islands.

/3 Erosion of commitment to int law/order and refusal to punish only makes it easier for CCP engage in further expansionism. As to invasion, I don't think PRC has capability to invade/conquer Taiwan yet at least as long as it's a hot invasion.

/2 also some debate abt whether CCP cares about intl law and ability to invade. On the first point, PRC cares abt it when it's in CCP interest but we know CCP wants to rewrite int law/rules and they ignore the rules when they want to.

Unfortunately, there are the types who say, "If only I had been in charge of Eagle Claw"

We talk like we want all our armies in Greenland south to Argentina.

Way things are going, there's going to be a Northern United States, Central US and Southern US or just one big Continental US with the Gulf of America in the middle.

That's what neocons said abt Iraq but I digress.

/8 People in Taiwan with better pulse can speak to environment. Blue Bird Movement showed opposition to KMT/TPP but I don't sense it's been as successful as Sunflower. I like to think that people will be more unified against any CCP op/pol-econ seductions but sometimes hard to be optimistic.

/7 If done in way that doesn't hurt the world economy, China's neighbors will be concerned but won't take military action. Of course, such an op can go wrong in diff ways. CCP could use snatch-grab as trojan horse to seize power or it/its collaborators find out opposition was stronger than thought

/6 People in Taiwan know abt Hong Kong but doesn't stop KMT from visiting PRC. PRC has means to do such an op. Its planned for years on how to physically control Taibei gov't. It knows Taiwan inside-out. It'll tell the world Taiwan is our turf and was being governed by a criminal under PRC law.

/5 Would ROC military just standdown? Right now, I don't sense they would and I'm not sure how many in Taiwan would celebrate. Such a snatch-and-grab would create new precedent. If CCP could do it once, it can do it twice.

/4 United Front has connections within Taiwan. CCP could accuse Lai of fomenting separatism. Make deal with KMT. Status quo can remain as long as KMT, not DPP is in power. The Ma Yingjeou era ties with PRC would be restored and the hated Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement become law.

/3 For years, people in ROC military have shared secrets with CCP. The KMT/TPP in their current opposition set themselves up as willing collaborators. Taiwan is not suffering economically like Venezuela but the DPP is not all that popular either.

2/For years there has been talk of blockade/invasion of Taiwan by PRC. A limited military snatch & grab op is not inconceivable either & it has occurred to me in the past and probably by people smarter than me. For such an op to work, it would require knowledge and collaboration from inside.