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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 1h

I had a great chat with Mark Bouris on the Australian property market, interest rates, tax, government spending and lots of other things.

yhomeloans.com.au/videos/mark-...

"5% deposit is ridiculous!" Mark Bouris & Shane Oliver - Y Home Loans

— Dr Shane Oliver is head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital. He has a PhD in economics and a graduate diploma in applied finance and investment from the Securities Institute of...

yhomeloans.com.au

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 1h

Eurozone shares +0.6%
US shares +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.1% with Fed minutes providing no hawkish surprises
US 10 yr yld 0.2bp to 4.12%
Oil +0.5% to $62.4
Gold +1.5% to $4043.6
Iron ore -0.1% to $104
Bitcoin $123.3k
ASX futures +0.4%
$A 0.6587 with $US index +0.1%

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 17h

www.amp.com.au/resources/in...

Oliver's insights - Bubble trouble – is AI enthusiasm driving a bubble in shares? - AMP

Rich share market valuations are warning of the risk of a pullback in shares amidst fears of a bubble and it’s possible that enthusiasm for AI has run ahead of itself. But the fundamentals behind this...

www.amp.com.au

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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 20h

RBNZ cut 0.5% to 2.5%, due to “prolonged spare capacity” & to boost to spending. Guidance was dovish with the money mkt allowing for 1 or 2 more 0.25% cuts. RBNZ has now cut by more than other major central banks, as it overdid the tightening.
(Macquarie Macro Strategy chart)

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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 1d

Eurozone shares -0.3%
US shares -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.7%
US 10 yr yld -3bp to $4.13%
Oil +0.6% to $62
Gold +0.5% to $3982.2
Iron ore flat at $104.1
Bitcoin $122.2k
ASX futures -0.01%
$A 0.6582 with $US index +0.4%

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 1d

Australian ANZ-Indeed job ads fell 3.3% in September and remain in a downtrend.

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 1d

The October Westpac/MI consumer survey showed a further rise in home price expectations to a 15 year high. Perceptions regarding the time to buy a dwelling improved marginally but remain soft historically reflecting poor affordability.

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 1d

Australian Westpac/MI consumer confidence -3.5% to a soft 92.1 reflecting higher inflation & last weeks more hawkish RBA commentary. Perceptions of family finances fell, with the time to buy major items also down. Unemployment expectations fell but r well up from their 2022 lows

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 2d

Eurozone shares -0.4% with French shares -1.4% on latest political turmoil
US shares +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.7%
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.15%
Oil +1.3% to $61.7
Gold +1.9% to $3961
Iron ore +0.3% to $104.1
Bitcoin $125.2k..making a new record hi
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.6613 w $US +0.3%

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 3d

www.investordaily.com.au/podcast/5791...

Relative Return Insider: Will the RBA cut rates by year-end?

In the latest episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist, Dr Shane Oliver, discuss this week’s RBA interest rate decision, a potential government shutdown in the US, a...

www.investordaily.com.au

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 4d

Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 74%=final ~74%,Oct norm 63%
Mel 70%=final ~70%,Oct norm 64%
Clearances r remaining strong with any fall in rate cut optimism offset by the boost to FHBs from the expanded 5% deposit scheme,so demand is strong at a time of low supply.
#ausecon

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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 4d

US Sept services ISM -2pts to a weak 50 with new orders down and employment remaining weak. Prices paid remain elevated reflecting the tariffs.

(Bloomberg charts)

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 4d

Eurozone shares +0.2% (+2.7% wk)
US shares flat (+1.1% wk), Nasdaq -0.3%
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.12%
Oil +0.7% to $60.9
Gold +0.8% to $3886.5..new record hi
Iron ore -0.2% to $103.8
Bitcoin $122.6k
ASX futures +0.3%
$A 0.6594 with $US index -0.1%
(Bloomberg chart)

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 5d

Weekly economic and market update - ASX nearing record high; what about the US shutdown?; RBA is cautious but another rate cut still likely; more macro pru to slow Aust investors?; iron ore to China; another boost to Aust house prices

www.amp.com.au/resources/in...

Weekly market update - 03-10-2025 - AMP

Share markets rose strongly over the last week, with optimism for further US rate cuts offsetting the start of another US partial government shutdown.

www.amp.com.au

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 5d

Here’s our latest Simplifying Investing podcast looking at the latest RBA meeting, housing affordability, the 5% deposit scheme, the US shutdown and a bunch of other things.

linktr.ee/simplifyingi...

Econosights | Twitter, Instagram, TikTok | Linktree

View simplifyinginvesting’s Linktree to discover and stream music from top platforms like YouTube, Spotify here. Your next favorite track is just a click away!

linktr.ee

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 6d

Eurozone shares +1.2%
US shares +0.1% with some jitters about Trump admin threats of Fed layoffs in shutdown, but Nas +0.4%
US 10 yr yld -2bp to 4.08%
Oil -2.1% to $60.5
Gold -0.2% to $3856.6
Iron ore -0.2% to $103.6
Bitcoin $120.3k
ASX futures -0.04%
$A 0.659 w $US +0.1%

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 6d

The RBA may be preparing the ground for another round of macro prudential controls to slow risky housing lending particularly if the surge investor lending continues.
(Excerpts from today’s RBA Financial Stability Review)

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 6d

Australia’s trade surplus in August fell to $1.8bn with exports -7.8%mom (due to -47% in volatile non-monetary gold exports) with imports +3.2%mom.

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 6d

Aust Aug household spending +0.1%m/5%y, < exp marking a distinct slowing in monthly growth since May. Don’t forget that July was boosted by school holidays and health spending with a bad flu season. And the trend likely remains up helped by rate cuts, rising real wages & wealth.

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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 6d

The RBAs FSR sees a wide range of global financial risks (re fin mkts, digital & China property) but sees Aust financial system as resilient & notes the share of home borrowers in severe fin stress is small & falling, arrears are low & the insolvency rate is ~avg=> no urgency for rate cuts here.

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 7d

The Sept US ISM manufacturing index remained weak at 49 with orders down & emp remaining weak. Prices paid fell a bit but still elevated.

The ADP emp survey fell - it has only a rough correlation to mthly payrolls but adds to a data pointing to a soft jobs mkt
(Bloomberg charts)

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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 7d

Eurozone shares +0.9%
US shares +0.3%…mkt looking past shutdown which usually have little mkt impact but risks this time re layoffs
US 10 yr yld -5bp to 4.1%
Oil -0.9% to $61.8
Gold +0.2% to $3865.7
Iron ore +0.3% to $103.8
Bitcoin $117.6k
ASX futures +0.5%
$A 0.661 w $US flat

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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 7d

Eurozone Sept CPI +2.2%yoy up from 2%yoy in Aug due to energy base effects
Core inflation unchanged at 2.3%yoy
Likely still leaves the ECB on hold this month.
(Bloomberg charts)

Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 7d

Some softer US data
Conference Board consumer confidence down 3.6pts in Sept with perceptions of the jobs mkt continuing to soften
Job openings to unemployment rate, the quits rate and hiring rate were down in August
Cotality July home price growth slowed further to 1.8%yoy

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Shane Oliver @shaneoliver.bsky.social · 7d

Aust home prices +0.8%mom in September as rate cuts and the housing shortage continue to push prices higher. Clear evidence rate cuts are getting traction here. Expect further increases although less cuts than previously expected and poor affordability are the main constraints.

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