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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Jul 14

What happened at the 2025 election? When did the race turn in Labor's favour, and what do the results mean for Australian politics in the future?

Recently, I had the pleasure of joining Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social to answers these questions, and more

ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...

Democracy Sausage Episode: The pendulum swing

The numbers are in. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff joins Democracy Sausage to dissect the latest election data and what it means for the future of #auspol.What do the numbers tell us about when the shift to ...

ausi.anu.edu.au

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Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff

ANU Australian Studies Institute @anuausi.bsky.social · Jul 9

New ep of #DemocracySausage is out! 🎙️
@shaunratcliff.bsky.social joins @markgkenny.bsky.social & @marijataflaga.bsky.social to unpack the latest election numbers and what they reveal about the state of our democracy.

Don’t miss this one! #auspol 🎧 #AUListen bit.ly/4kwNcNQ.

Democracy Sausage Episode: The pendulum swing

The numbers are in. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff joins Democracy Sausage to dissect the latest election data and what it means for the future of #auspol.What do the numbers tell us about when the shift to ...

bit.ly

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · May 6

Hi Ben. We asked a few questions about Trump. We also had an open ended questions requiring voters to list the three issues most influencing their vote, and what shifted their opinions on parties and leaders. Trump was only mentioned sporadically.

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · May 6

I’ve been describing Trump as background radiation when talking about his impact on our election. There was clearly an influence, but it wasn’t a first order effect

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · May 6

possibly. a lot of firms were also using 2022 vote in their weights, though. including YG.

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · May 6

vote recall is error prone, though; and gets worse over time. you want to be very careful using it for weights and quotas

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · May 3

If you're looking for something different in your election coverage tonight, join Simon Welsh and me on SBS

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · May 3

voting on election day? rookie mistake.

Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · May 3

I and some of my fellow political scientists and election watchers (including the always insightful @benraue.com) tried to help our American friends understand the 2025 Australian federal election by speaking to Victoria Kim at the New York Times

Read the story here:
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/02/w...

Australia Election 2025: Voters Focus on Cost-of-Living Concerns Amid Global Turmoil

Voters will decide who can turn Australia around from the throes of inflation and a housing crisis, and navigate relations with a volatile Washington.

www.nytimes.com

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · May 2

I spoke to @charischang.bsky.social at SBS News about some of the key seats to watch on election day

www.sbs.com.au/news/article...

How marginal is your electorate? The key seats to watch on election day

Find your electorate and whether it's a marginal seat by using SBS News' interactive map — you can also check whether it's one of the key seats experts are watching.

www.sbs.com.au

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · May 1

Thanks Josh, appreciated. What you guys pulled together also works really well

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 30

I'm a bit late posting this, but I was quoted in this very comprehensive piece about generational politics in the Age/SMH by Angus Holland

www.smh.com.au/national/gen...

How will the ’generation gap” affect this election?

Boomers, Millennials, Gen Z – who invented these terms? What do they mean? And how do they make a difference to politics?

www.smh.com.au

Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff

Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 28

Last week I joined Kos Samaras, Jessica Elgood and
Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)”

This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground.

You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 28

Last week I joined Kos Samaras, Jessica Elgood and
Tom Connell at the National Press Club of Australia to discuss “Where the 2025 election will be won (and lost)”

This was a really interesting panel that covered a lot of ground.

You can watch the address here: youtu.be/viVN6dsNZMo?...

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Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff

casey briggs @caseybriggs.com · Apr 23

This humble little triangle explains the big shift in how we vote over 50 years. My latest:

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04...

This triangle helps explain a titanic shift in how Australia votes

This triangle is going to help us explain how Australian politics has fundamentally changed over the past five decades.

www.abc.net.au

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Reposted by Shaun Ratcliff

Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 21

Looking forward to joining Kos Samaras and Jessica Elgood at the National Press Club today to discuss the 2025 federal election, polling, and where the battleground seats are

You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 21

More details can be found here

t.co/R8x4Q9PlZs

https://npc.org.au/events/kos-samaras-jessica-elgood-shaun-ratcliff

t.co

Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 21

Looking forward to joining Kos Samaras and Jessica Elgood at the National Press Club today to discuss the 2025 federal election, polling, and where the battleground seats are

You should be able to watch on the ABC and Sky News at 12:30

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 17

This research was produced by Accent Research and RedBridge Group.

For details on the results and methodology, see the full report here: tinyurl.com/4sz6spv8

tinyurl.com

Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 17

These results do not mean that Labor is destined to win, they are a snapshot of vote intention during the fieldwork period (mostly March). However, we are now close to the start of early voting and the trend appears to favour the government. It looks difficult for the Coalition to recover in time

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 17

However, the Labor vote is holding up better in inner city areas than the suburbs, and there is a chance it could win seats from the Coalition, including Sturt in South Australia.

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 17

Somewhat offsetting these losses, the Coalition also looks competitive in Kooyong, Goldstein and Brisbane. However, the chances of winning back additional seats lost to the crossbench in 2022 looks slim at the moment.

Estimated first preference and two candidate vote shares for divisions that are too close to call. Horizontal error bars represent 95 per cent confidence intervals, indicating uncertainty in the results.

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 17

Additionally, rural and regional Coalition seats look at risk to independents: Cowper, Monash and Calare

Estimated two-candidate results for key seats in NSW across the four waves of the MRPs. Curves are the predicted two-candidate vote for division. Shaded areas around these curves represent 95 per cent confidence intervals, indicating uncertainty in the results.

Estimated two-candidate results for key seats in Victoria and Tasmania across the four waves of the MRPs. Curves are the predicted two-candidate vote for division. Shaded areas around these curves represent 95 per cent confidence intervals, indicating uncertainty in the results.

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 17

While the Coalition does look likely to win seats off Labor, it is also at risk of losing at least two in return: Sturt and Bass.

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Shaun Ratcliff @shaunratcliff.bsky.social · Apr 17

Similarly, Dobell, Robertson and Shortland on the Central Coast, and Paterson around Port Stephens are at risk of falling to the Coalition. As is Gilmore south of Sydney.

Battleground seats in NSW and the ACT. Clearer wins are shaded darker, and those seats leaning towards a particular candidate or party are lighter, to highlight uncertainty and close results in the estimates.

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