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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 19h

New paper from SIEPR's Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and Daniel Posthumus delves into U.S. manufacturing's slide and what to do about it. Key insights: The 2000s China Shock tells only part of the story, and Trump tariffs will only make the underlying problem worse.

tinyurl.com/bbrmb28f

table showing how U.S. manufacturing output and productivity have declined since 1970.

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 7d

What’s next for Fannie and Freddie: SIEPR’s latest Policy Brief, from fmr NEC deputy director Daniel Hornung and Stanford econ PhD student Ben Sampson, looks at 3 potential reforms and introduces a framework for assessing their possible impacts on mortgage rates, homebuyers.

tinyurl.com/35mxsnrf

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 8d

How could AI transform creativity, jobs, education and public policy? SIEPR's @nealemahoney.bsky.social and @susanathey.bsky.social, and @drfeifei.bsky.social, share their insights in this special episode of the Stanford Engineering's "Future of Everything" podcast. 👇

tinyurl.com/4wn3ekyz

The future of the innovation economy

Three experts spanning artificial intelligence and economics explore the implications of AI and how it could transform creativity, jobs, education, and public policy through the rapidly evolving “inno...

tinyurl.com

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 8d

Women and men almost always feel differently about the economy, SIEPR's @nealemahoney.bsky.social and Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social find in a new analysis of University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. 👇

Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social · 8d

1/ Me and @nealemahoney.bsky.social are back to analyzing the vibecession. This time, We dug into the #s on how men vs. women experience the economy and found a striking result: women tend to be 10 points less optimistic about the economy than men nealemahoney.substack.com/p/the-gender...

The Gender Optimism Gap

Men are significantly and persistently more optimistic than women about the economic outlook

nealemahoney.substack.com

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 12d

www.chemistryworld.com/news/how-doe...

How does Clarivate pick its potential Nobel prize winners?

Chemistry World talks to the head of research analysis at the Institute for Science Information on how they decide which researchers are producing Nobel-worthy research

www.chemistryworld.com

SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 12d

Please join us in celebrating Nick Bloom on his Clarivate Citation Laureate recognition for his work measuring economic uncertainty! Bloom joins a distinguished list of Stanford economists who have previously been honored, including Nobel Laureates Paul Milgrom, Robert Wilson & Paul Romer. Link ⬇️

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 14d

3/3 Policy recommendations include rolling back tariffs, cutting bureaucratic red tape, subsidizing child care, and promoting competition in health care, food production and other key industries. #affordability #inflation #costofliving #housing #healthcare #energy #econsky

SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 14d

2/3 Their framework is built on basic economic principles of enhanced supply, direct subsidies, and competition policy.

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 14d

🧵 The affordability squeeze in this country is real. In a new SIEPR Policy Brief, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and @nealemahoney.bsky.social introduce a 3-legged framework for addressing the problem of rising costs for basic necessities, from health care to housing. tinyurl.com/f5hb93u5

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 15d

Lots of ideas in this proposed research agenda for economists thinking about the effects of #AI on the #economy, including implications for #innovation and #geoeconomics. Courtesy of
@erikbryn.bsky.social, @akorinek.bsky.social and Ajay Agrawal.
tinyurl.com/ycxjx4ah

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 19d

This is startling. The number of deaths every year tied to wildfire smoke now outnumber traffic fatalities, according to @washingtonpost.com coverage of a new @nature.com study from @marshallburke.bsky.social and others.

Marshall Burke @marshallburke.bsky.social · 19d

Excellent coverage of our study out today on climate impacts on wildfire smoke and related health impacts.

Shannon Osaka @shannonosaka.bsky.social · 19d

It's not your imagination: Wildfire smoke in the U.S. has dramatically worsened since 2019. According to a new study, it's already killing 41,000 people a year - and it's poised to get much worse.

new from me @johnmuyskens.bsky.social and @sadbumblebee.buzz

www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 21d

An extraordinary new tool from @marshallburke.bsky.social, SIEPR senior fellow @stanforddoerr.bsky.social, and Andrew Wilson. If you've got the evidence they're looking for, they want to hear from you. 👇

Marshall Burke @marshallburke.bsky.social · 21d

We are excited to announce the release of the Environmental Hazard Adaptation Atlas, an effort to map ongoing and future environmental hazards and their impacts on society, and to provide up to date evidence on what policies and interventions work to reduce impacts: adaptationatlas.org. Quick thread

Environmental Hazard Adaptation Atlas | ECHO Lab | Stanford University

Studying the impacts of environmental change on human health and well-being

adaptationatlas.org

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 26d

This just in: @economist.com cites research by SIEPR's Chad Jones and @nickbloom.bsky.social in examining if a shrinking world really would be catastrophic and whether #AI could help with one possible downside: fewer new ideas. #innovation #globalpopulation. Gift link: tinyurl.com/3de7bf5x

A contracting population need not be a catastrophe

The economics of a shrinking world

tinyurl.com

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · 29d

📣 Applications open for the 2026 SIEPR Predoctoral Research Fellows Program. This is a great opportunity for college grads to learn how the economy works and explore careers in economic policy research. Deadline is Sept. 19 for a guaranteed full application review. Learn more: tinyurl.com/2p8x9nta

SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · Sep 5

Don't miss this terrific profile of Guido Imbens, SIEPR senior fellow and 2021 Nobel Prize winner, in the September issue of the IMF's Finance & Development Magazine. tinyurl.com/bde7d3dj

Guido Imbens: A Causal Pioneer

Gary Seidman profiles Stanford economist Guido Imbens, who is reshaping how researchers establish cause and effect in the real world

tinyurl.com

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · Sep 5

Key insight from SIEPR director @nealemahoney.bsky.social and Caleb Brobst, a SIEPR predoctoral fellow:

Neale Mahoney @nealemahoney.bsky.social · Sep 5

Updated our numbers with Caleb Brobst on how healthcare jobs are propping up the labor market

- Healthcare jobs were 133% of non-farm payroll growth over last 3 months. Non-health care was negative.
- Healthcare jobs were 49% of NFP over last 6 months

Link to original piece: lnkd.in/eaRfxMDB

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · Sep 2

Great example of how AI is advancing economics research, from SIEPR Senior Fellow @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social:

Matthew O. Jackson @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social · Aug 29

Prompts differ but overlap across games and human populations (high, middle, low income; student vs non students) in intuitive ways. They can be used to categorize/compare strategic scenarios and human populations, and potentially gain insight into motivations behind different behaviors.

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · Sep 2

(5/5) “It sort of saddens me,” Mahoney tells the WSJ. “I think one of our superpowers as a country is our relentless optimism…It is the fuel for entrepreneurship and other exceptional achievements.”

SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · Sep 2

(4/5) Mahoney and Cummings first explored the mismatch between opinions about the economy and the data here: tinyurl.com/3kx3vh4a

Digesting inflation

The impact of inflation on consumer sentiment decays at a rate of about 50 percent per year

tinyurl.com

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · Sep 2

(3/5) The story also references Mahoney's insights into how #consumersentiment is now driven by fears about the future: tinyurl.com/ba7bx6yn

Trouble Ahead vs Trouble Behind

Understanding the consumer sentiment gap now and then

tinyurl.com

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · Sep 2

(2/5) The story cites Mahoney's research with SIEPR's Ryan Cummings @weakinstrument.bsky.social and Ben Harris of @brookings.edu on how Americans’ views on the #economy versus what the data show have diverged since the #Covid19 pandemic: tinyurl.com/333f777d

What People Don't Know About The Economy

tinyurl.com

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · Sep 2

🧵 Is the American dream a mirage? Shocking new @wsj.com poll finds that 70 percent of Americans now think so. In exploring this and other findings, the WSJ begins with a quote from SIEPR director @nealemahoney.bsky.social, lamenting the loss of Americans' "relentless optimism."

tinyurl.com/mryzy2ny

Exclusive | Americans Lose Faith That Hard Work Leads to Economic Gains, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds

Trump is contending with a disconnect between the nation’s sour outlook and traditional measures showing a robust economy.

tinyurl.com

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · Aug 28

This just in from SIEPR director @nealemahoney.bsky.social and Adam Shaw: New #tariffs on small shipments, set to take effect Aug. 29, are a terrible idea for a lot of reasons. 👇

Neale Mahoney @nealemahoney.bsky.social · Aug 28

New piece in TIME this morning with Adam Shaw on tomorrow's closure of the de minimis exemption, which will raise tariffs on shipments under $800.

We write that the decision compounds one bad policy with another under the misguided notion that two wrongs make a right.

time.com/7312977/stan...

Economists: Trump’s New Tariff Rules Will Fuel Inflation

Economists from the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research explain the impact of Trump's tariff policy.

time.com

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · Aug 25

Some warning signs in this timely look at the country's No. 1 job engine, from SIEPR director @nealemahoney.bsky.social and Caleb Brobst, SIEPR predoctoral research fellow. #EconSky #LaborMarket

Neale Mahoney @nealemahoney.bsky.social · Aug 25

New Substack w/ Caleb Brobst on how healthcare jobs are propping up the labor market and whether it can continue in the face of new headwinds.

open.substack.com/pub/nealemah...

Healthcare Jobs Are Propping Up the Labor Market

How Long Can It Last?

open.substack.com

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SIEPR @siepr.bsky.social · Aug 14

As China tries to lock down control over global supplies of rare-earth minerals and other critical resources amid its trade war with the U.S., @economist.com speaks to SIEPR Senior Fellow @mmaggiori.bsky.social about the challenges of wielding geoeconomic power.

Global Capital Allocation Project @gcaproject.bsky.social · Aug 14

🇨🇳 How scared should you be of “the China squeeze”? @economist.com spoke to @mmaggiori.bsky.social to understand the nonlinearity of geoeconomic power. Article here: www.economist.com/china/2025/0...

How scared should you be of “the China squeeze”?

Xi Jinping masters the dark arts of the trade war

www.economist.com