Great presentation at #CMSAC by Paul Nguyen about our recent work on modeling decathlon performance with @jsmoliga.bsky.social & Ben Lindaman

I'm guessing the next step is to assess a model based on the quality of its predictions (posterior predictive checking for Bayesian). On that view, the last paragraph from Gelman, Meng, & Stern is perhaps spiritually similar to what you're looking for

Clarified a big batch of jungle birds

@karenhao.bsky.social ‘s “empire of ai” is brilliant and articulates so many of my thoughts & feelings about AI so much more cogently than I ever could. But I also admire the way the book distills import technical aspects into plain language.

Very belatedly going through other photos from that night. The cocktail looked even better from the top!

It’s bramble o’clock

Finally had a chance to put the raspberry & lime cordials I made recently to good use: maiden’s blush & gimlets tonight

Its “Gibbs as a composition of lots of MH steps that always get accepted” day in my graduate Bayes class. Otherwise known as “break out all the colorful chalk day”.

The evening took a turn towards flower themed cocktails: a daisy and a water lily

Back in June, @mikelikessports.bsky.social wrote about Dallas in a way that resonated deeply w/ me. I think about and return to his words a lot. Today, he pulls no punches: the FO & ownership don't care about the city. They best keep the phrase #mffl out they mouth.

Odd characterization for a pretty useful result!

Hard to think of a better way to spend a rainy Sunday than strolling around my old college and reading @willdalrymple.bsky.social’s wonderful new book

Had a free morning in London so I paid the good reverend a visit.

This month’s been a decade with some very high highs and very very low lows. One of those highs: finally opening the cherry bounce I started back in July. The sharpness of the rye & tartness of the door county cherries have mixed much better than any of my MCMC simulations ever will.

#mffl