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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Aug 28

The 10 year BTP-Bund spread is at its lowest since 2010 and Italy in 2024 went back to a primary surplus, as it consistently did for almost two decades before COVID (unlike France, who’s been overshooting its deficit forecasts for 30 years). Don’t cry wolf where there isn’t one, it’s irresponsible.

Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · Aug 27

There's first signs of contagion from France to Italy and flight to safety into German Bunds. Italy is the Euro zone Achilles heel. Without it, ECB could let French yields rise, helping France get its budget under control. But that's not possible with Italy always teetering on the brink of crisis...

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Aug 12

#Bruegel is republishing the classics and I’m super proud that this paper by @pisaniferry.bsky.social and myself made the cut. It took a lot of work on then-obscure central bank liquidity data, but it changed the way we look at capital flows within monetary union.

www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...

Sudden stops in the euro area

Internal balance-of-payment crises should be taken as a strong signal of weakness and a wake-up call to reform euro area structures

www.bruegel.org

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Jul 22

Thank you to Jon Hay for featuring my comments in this extensive article on the UK’s decision to scrap plans for a Green Taxonomy. Great insights also from the other people quoted in the piece!

www.globalcapital.com/article/2f2q...

UK scraps Taxonomy, stakes green reputation on credible transition

Transition plans and disclosure rules will be central to UK’s bid for sustainable finance leadership

www.globalcapital.com

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Jul 17

My latest, on the recent notice by the European Commission on defence investment in the sustainable finance framework.

Bruegel @bruegel.org · Jul 8

🪖 Can #defence #investment be sustainable? The European Commission thinks so

🔎 @smerler.bsky.social digs into the Commission's recent efforts to justify its efforts to incentivise greater defence investment.

♻️ Can there be such a thing as 'sustainable defence'?

🔗 buff.ly/GBeMML9
#EconSky

Can defence investment be sustainable? The European Commission thinks so

European Commission guidance on defence investment and sustainability could ease reputational concerns for investors

buff.ly

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Jun 23

The international monetary system is changing before our eyes. Germany and Italy pressed to bring gold home from US; a survey of more than 70 global central banks showed more were thinking of storing their gold domestically amid concerns about ability to access it.

www.ft.com/content/e393...

Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245bn of gold home from US

Trump’s attacks on the Fed and growing geopolitical risks reignite public debate about repatriating bullion

www.ft.com

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Jun 19

Great piece by @martinsandbu.ft.com in today’s FT. As I wrote back in April, the EU’s best response to Trump’s tariffs would be to issue more EU debt. My preference however is for ramping up genuine EU debt issuance, not settling for synthetic asset solutions.

www.bruegel.org/first-glance...

More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs

The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump

www.bruegel.org

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Apr 24

The return of volatility: the S&P 500 has gained or lost at least 1% in seven of the past 10 sessions, and April is poised to be the most-volatile calendar month since the Covid crash in 2020.

www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

Huge Stock Swings Are the New Normal for Frazzled Investors

April is poised to be the most-volatile calendar month since the Covid crash in 2020.

www.wsj.com

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Apr 23

ECB’s Guindos Says Euro May Become Alternative Reserve Currency ‘in Some Years’ - but that will require “additional integration” he says (and a step up in EU issuance, says I)

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

ECB’s Guindos Says Euro May Become Alternative Reserve Currency ‘in Some Years’

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said the euro could become an alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency if Europe increases its integration efforts.

www.bloomberg.com

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Apr 14

To clarify: in the piece I don’t argue the euro will replace the dollar, but rather that demand for safe asset diversification is an opportunity for Europe to push the euro to play a greater role (while doing a welcome fiscal stimulus and ensuring appropriate provision of European public goods)

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Apr 13

Latest US inflation numbers surprised to the downside, but the University of Michigan survey points to 12-month inflation expectations at 6.7%, and above 4% for the next 5 years. Powell previously dismissed it as an outlier, but important to watch for role of the $.

www.reuters.com/markets/us/u...

US consumer sentiment, inflation expectations deteriorate sharply in April

U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April and 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over escalating trade tensions.

www.reuters.com

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Apr 11

It may seem counterintuitive to issue more debt during a crisis. But in a world where US economic policy is unpredictable, safe asset diversification suddenly has value. And the EU’s best response to US tariffs is to issue more debt.

My OpED at @bruegel.bsky.social

www.bruegel.org/first-glance...

More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs

The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump

www.bruegel.org

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Reposted by Silvia Merler

Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · Apr 11

"The EU should thus move to fund the entire cost of its planned rearmament with EU debt, similarly to NGEU." @smerler.bsky.social on the global role of the euro in light of American chaos. www.bruegel.org/first-glance...

More EU debt issuance would be the best response to Trump’s tariffs

The European Union should think strategically and seize the opportunity to fill the void created by Trump

www.bruegel.org

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Apr 7

All eyes in the market are on China. So far, China is going for a strategy of being the adult in the room:

*US TARIFFS A HEGEMONIC MOVE, SELFISH: LIN
*US TARIFFS DEPRIVE GLOBAL SOUTH OF RIGHT TO DEVELOP, LIN SAYS
*NATIONS SHOULD OPPOSE PROTECTIONISM, LIN SAYS

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Apr 3

Dollar down on a massive trade protectionist shock is something that will go in the macroeconomics handbooks for the next generations:

*EURO RISES MORE THAN 1% TO $1.0980, HIGHEST LEVEL IN SIX MONTHS

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Mar 19

Ma tribune dans L’Opinion, sur les implications du paquet Omnibus pour la finance durable ⬇️

www.lopinion.fr/internationa...

« Simplification ou dilution ? Les implications du paquet Omnibus pour la finance durable »

La simplification du reporting dans l’Union européenne entraînera une réduction de l’information disponible et introduira des distorsions sur le marché de la finance durable.

www.lopinion.fr

Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Mar 17

🔎 I’ve been asked many times whether EU sustainable finance rules are holding back EU defence financing. The short answer is that the regulatory constraints are not that tight, but self imposed reputational restrictions are tighter. The longer answer is ⬇️

www.bruegel.org/analysis/sus...

Sustainability rules are not a block on EU defence financing, but reputational fears are

To mobilise private capital for weapons, the European Commission should clarify the status of defence investing in its sustainable finance framework

www.bruegel.org

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Silvia Merler @smerler.bsky.social · Mar 17

Many thanks to Philippa Nuttal for featuring my thoughts in her must read @sustainableviews.bsky.social piece on the Omnibus. The bottomline is that sustainability-minded investors have reasons to be worried.

www.sustainableviews.com/eu-omnibus-t...

EU omnibus: ‘The uncertainty is killing everything’

The EU Commission’s proposals may have found favour with many in business and industry, but sustainability-minded investors are worried At a glanceThis week, the first debate was held in the European...

www.sustainableviews.com

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