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SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 21 Dec 2025 22:01:20 +0000
🔥Synopsis🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A mid/upper level ridge is expected to amplify over the central U.S. through midweek supporting dry conditions and near record warm temperatures across the Plains. A deepening trough across the northeast Pacific should bring increasing Pacific moisture, including widespread rain and mountain snow into the much of the western U.S. through the week. Longer term model guidance indicates a westward shift of the mid-level ridge while troughing develops across the Northeast. This could invite a cold air intrusion into much of the eastern U.S. by early next week but still limits rainfall potential across the Plains. ...Day 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The Southern High Plains will remain the focus for fire weather concerns through midweek with increasingly dry fuels in place. A deepening lee trough across the southern High Plains will maintain dry and breezy conditions across portions of northeast NM, TX/OK Panhandles, southeast CO and southwest KS on Day 4/Wednesday. 40 percent critical probabilities were maintained for this region. Enhanced southwest winds are also expected farther east into northern TX and central OK on Wednesday, but deeper Gulf boundary layer moisture should limit a more significant fire weather threat. Similarly breezy conditions should exist on Day 5/Thursday, but increasing Pacific moisture/cloud cover could considerably limit RH reductions across the TX/OK Panhandles and adjacent high plains. ...Day 6-8/Friday-Sunday... Relatively warm and dry conditions will persist across much of the central and southern Plains through the weekend. A potential strong cold front sweeps through the Plains and eastern CONUS as mid/upper-level troughing evolves across Ontario/Quebec Canadian provinces and northeastern U.S. However, forecast uncertainty remains high in terms of timing of the front, particularly across the Southern Plains where receptive fuels will likely exist. This precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 12/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 21, 2025 at 10:20 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 21 Dec 2025 19:45:29 +0000
🔥 /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/

🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z A subtle mid-level short wave embedded within broad westerly flow aloft should move into the upper Missouri River Valley Monday afternoon. As a result, enhanced lee troughing across the northern/central Plains will expand southward into the southern High Plains as broader surface high pressure shifts east-southeastward into the Mid Atlantic. This will promote an increasingly favorable dry downslope regime across the southern High Plains and adjacent leeward locations of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and CO Front Range. Despite upper-level cloud cover, near record warmth with temperatures in the 60s and 70s along with west winds of 10-15 mph and minimum relative values as low as 10 percent are possible in the lee of the Southern Rockies. Thus, Elevated highlights were expended to cover this threat amid increasingly dry fuels. A more expansive fire weather threat is still expected across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle where a low-level thermal ridge and subsequent well above normal temperatures in the 70s and 80s will align with west winds of around 15 mph (localized 20 mph) and 15-20 percent relative humidity by early Monday afternoon. Elevated highlights remain across this region amid dry fuels. ..Williams.. 12/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the CONUS tomorrow (Monday), with surface lee troughing continuing over the Plains states. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with 15-20 percent RH becoming common over most locales as the boundary layer mixes Monday afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts a corridor of 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping the aforementioned RH for several hours Monday afternoon across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Elevated highlights are warranted for these conditions given the presence of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 21, 2025 at 8:00 PM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 21 Dec 2025 16:33:29 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... .Southern and Central Plains... Surface high pressure translating eastward into the OH River Valley along with a deepening surface trough across the Northern Rockies will initiate return southerly flow across much of the central Plains. Although the landscape remains dry, the considerably cooler, post-frontal air mass has temporarily moderated fuels across much of the southern and central Plains. In addition, limited afternoon RH reductions across the region will mitigate the overall fire weather threat amid sustained south winds of 10-15 mph. ..Williams.. 12/21/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the CONUS, resulting in surface high pressure overspreading the eastern CONUS as a surface trough becomes established over the Plains today. Relatively cool and/or moist conditions will prevail over most locales east of the Rockies, limiting the potential for significant wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 21, 2025 at 4:40 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 21 Dec 2025 07:34:15 +0000
🔥Synopsis🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the CONUS tomorrow (Monday), with surface lee troughing continuing over the Plains states. Dry downslope flow is expected across the southern High Plains, with 15-20 percent RH becoming common over most locales as the boundary layer mixes Monday afternoon. Guidance consensus depicts a corridor of 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds overlapping the aforementioned RH for several hours Monday afternoon across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Elevated highlights are warranted for these conditions given the presence of dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 12/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 21, 2025 at 7:40 AM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 21 Dec 2025 07:33:27 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over the CONUS, resulting in surface high pressure overspreading the eastern CONUS as a surface trough becomes established over the Plains today. Relatively cool and/or moist conditions will prevail over most locales east of the Rockies, limiting the potential for significant wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 12/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 21, 2025 at 7:40 AM
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 20 Dec 2025 22:42:19 +0000
🔥Synopsis🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing mid to upper-level heights are expected over the central and southern CONUS by early next week as a ridge migrates eastward over Chihuahua Mexico and into the Southern Plains. This ridge will continue to drift eastward through mid to late next week over the Gulf, while troughing begins to impact the Pacific Northwest. Persistent west to southwest mid-level flow across the Rockies will aid in lee troughing throughout next week, and the potential for some breezy winds at the surface across the Central and Southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Breezy westerly downslope winds are expected to impact the TX and OK Panhandles and east-central NM by Monday/D3. Low critical probabilities will remain in the forecast here, though there are some indications of only locally critical RH being reached. Decreasing surface wind speeds will accompany a decreasing surface pressure gradient Tuesday/D4 across this same region. By Wednesday/D5, however, increasing downslope flow will return as a lee trough deepens. This stronger surface flow will likely be more confined to the northwestern/western TX/OK Panhandles and far northeastern NM, where low critical probabilities remain in place from the previous forecast. In addition, fuels across this landscape will become more receptive to fire start/spread with very little to no sign of appreciable precipitation and above average temperatures/low relative humidity anticipated through the extended forecast. ..Barnes.. 12/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 20, 2025 at 11:00 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 20 Dec 2025 19:24:28 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes are needed for the Day 2 forecast. Please see the discussion below for additional information. ..Barnes.. 12/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS tomorrow (Sunday), with surface high pressure becoming established east of the Mississippi River as surface lee troughing and associated southerly flow overspreads the Plains states. While breezy conditions are likely across parts of the central into southern Plains, modest moisture return may accompany the windy southerly flow, which may limit wildfire-spread potential. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are likely across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 20, 2025 at 7:40 PM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 20 Dec 2025 16:36:29 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...Update... No changes were required for today's forecast. Expect increasing westerly winds throughout the afternoon, with RH dropping into the low teens to single digits. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 12/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify while traversing the Great Lakes today, encouraging the southward translation of a weakening surface low across the southern Plains. As a result, dry downslope flow is expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas ahead of a southward-sagging surface cold front today. During the afternoon, with boundary-layer mixing, RH will drop below 20 percent over several locales as sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph becomes abundant, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Guidance consensus continues to depict overlapping 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent RH along portions of the New Mexico/Texas border, where Critical highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 20, 2025 at 4:40 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 20 Dec 2025 07:14:27 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS tomorrow (Sunday), with surface high pressure becoming established east of the Mississippi River as surface lee troughing and associated southerly flow overspreads the Plains states. While breezy conditions are likely across parts of the central into southern Plains, modest moisture return may accompany the windy southerly flow, which may limit wildfire-spread potential. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are likely across the CONUS on Sunday. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 20, 2025 at 7:20 AM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sat, 20 Dec 2025 07:12:28 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify while traversing the Great Lakes today, encouraging the southward translation of a weakening surface low across the southern Plains. As a result, dry downslope flow is expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas ahead of a southward-sagging surface cold front today. During the afternoon, with boundary-layer mixing, RH will drop below 20 percent over several locales as sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 15 mph becomes abundant, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Guidance consensus continues to depict overlapping 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15 percent RH along portions of the New Mexico/Texas border, where Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 20, 2025 at 7:20 AM
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 19 Dec 2025 21:17:17 +0000
🔥Southern/Central High Plains🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Upper-level ridging will slowly build out of northern Mexico into the southern/central US next week then slowly drift east, with the upper high likely shifting from north-central Mexico to the Louisiana Gulf Coast/vicinity. Strong flow will be on the periphery of the ridging with some stronger flow/smaller jets traversing across the southern/Colorado Rockies. Deeper troughing is likely to develop off the West Coast before moving into the West and breaking down/shifting the upper ridge over the southern/central US. ...Southern/Central High Plains... Stronger flow aloft will spread across the Colorado/southern Rockies, increasing downslope flow and lee troughing on Day 4/Monday. This will likely result in elevated to perhaps critical fire weather conditions in portions of northeast New Mexico, far southeast Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. There appears to be a slackening of the flow aloft on Day 5/Tuesday as the ridge builds and before the next jet arrives. However, some dry/breezy conditions remain possible in the vicinity of the Day 4/Monday 40% area. On Day 6/Wednesday, forecast guidance indicates a small jet will move over the southern/Colorado Rockies, which will increase downslope flow and likely result in elevated to critical conditions. While there is good forecast guidance agreement on the timing and location of this feature, only a smaller 40% area was included due to the typical uncertainty associated with these types of features. Dry/windy conditions are likely late next week on portions of the southern/central High Plains as a deep trough moves into the West and begins to break down and shift the ridge over the southern/central US. However, the timing and orientation the stronger flow aloft remains uncertain and precludes introducing probabilities at this time. Given the lack of recent and forecast precipitation and multiple rounds of elevated/critical fire weather conditions for the southern/central Plains, fuels have and will continue to cure. Increased fuel loading across many of these areas, especially in portions of Oklahoma and Texas, are of concern with any forecast elevated/critical fire weather conditions. ..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 19, 2025 at 9:20 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 19 Dec 2025 19:31:28 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LLANO ESTACADO🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LLANO ESTACADO... The Critical area was modified slightly, and the Elevated area expanded slightly based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Gusty winds associated with the cold frontal passage is likely to result in locally elevated/elevated fire weather conditions in portions of the Texas Panhandle, southwest Kansas, and northwest Texas. While RH increases and temperatures decrease by the evening, breezy to gusty northeast winds behind a wind shift is of concern. Additionally, locally critical conditions are likely in portions of the Trans Pecos, especially in leeside, wind prone locations. ..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 19, 2025 at 7:40 PM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 19 Dec 2025 15:29:28 +0000
🔥EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG/EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... The Critical area was expanded south along the Colorado Rockies with a slight expansion of the Elevated in portions of central Colorado and southwest Texas based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. Westerly wind gusts of 40-70 mph with RH of 15-30% are already being observed in southeast Wyoming, along portions of the Front Range, and into the western Nebraska Panhandle. Cloud cover is over much of the southern/central High Plains, and partly to mostly cloudy conditions are likely to continue today. However, given the strong background flow and dry airmass, elevated to locally critical conditions remain expected across much of the southern/central High Plains, with critical to extremely critical conditions along/east the Front Range into southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle. This includes wind gusts up to 100 mph and minimum RH around 10%. A Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Warning has been issued by the NWS Boulder Weather Forecast Office for along/west of the Highway 93 corridor into the foothills from near Golden, CO extending north to near Lyons, CO. ..Nauslar.. 12/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20 mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 19, 2025 at 3:40 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 19 Dec 2025 07:48:25 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly translate across the northern and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the eastern CONUS as a surface low drifts south across Texas during the day. Ahead of a surface frontal boundary, dry downslope westerly flow will promote 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH for at least a few hours Saturday afternoon across parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been introduced where guidance consensus depicts 20+ mph sustained westerly winds overlapping 15 percent RH amid dry fuels along the New Mexico/Texas border. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 19, 2025 at 8:00 AM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 19 Dec 2025 07:23:27 +0000
🔥EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO
FOOTHILLS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO FOOTHILLS TO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a low-amplitude upper trough impinges on the central/northern Rockies into the northern Plains today. 50-70 kt 700-500 mb west-northwesterly flow will accompany the central CONUS upper trough, and overspread a deep and dry boundary layer through the day. The combination of dry downslope flow and surface lee troughing will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-25 percent RH across much of the central and southern High Plains into the southern Plains for much of the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. Critical fire weather highlights are in place across portions of central CO into southeastern WY and the NE Panhandle. Here the strongest mid-level flow will overspread a boundary layer extending to over 500 mb, which should support efficient downward momentum transport to the surface. Sustained surface winds should exceed 20 mph (perhaps 30 mph in some spots) amid 15-20 percent RH. Of particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 19, 2025 at 7:40 AM
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 18 Dec 2025 21:55:15 +0000
🔥Day 3/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Zonal flow aloft will prevail over the CONUS this weekend, with ridging slowly building over the southern US next week. Strong flow aloft will be prevalent around the weak ridging with upper-level troughing likely off/near the West and Northeast Coasts. This stronger west-southwest flow aloft will result in downslope flow on portions of the southern/central High Plains into mid-next week. Little to no precipitation is expected for much of the Plains for the forecast period. ...Day 3/Saturday: southern High Plains/vicinity... West-northwest winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front and amid dry downslope flow, likely resulting in elevated/critical fire weather conditions across much of west Texas into eastern New Mexico. Elevated to locally critical conditions may extend into the western Hill country and north Texas as boundary layer mixing routinely extends farther east than longer-range forecast guidance indicates. The cold front is forecast to arrive in the evening with breezy/gusty north-northeast winds and no precipitation, but temperatures will cool and RH will increase with the frontal passage. ...Day 5/Monday - Day 8/Thursday: southern/central Plains... Warm/dry conditions will continue on the southern/central Plains early into late-next week. Downslope flow will mostly continue on the southern/central High Plains with occasional increases as jets pass through the background flow. A 40% area was added on Day 5/Monday across northeast New Mexico, southeast Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles to reflect this potential. While the downslope early next week is unlikely to be as strong as this week's, it will be sufficient for at least locally elevated conditions on portions of the southern/central High Plains over multiple days. Additionally, the continued curing of fuels coupled with the potential of elevated/critical winds/RH in a multi-day event will be monitored going forward with additional probabilities likely needed in subsequent outlooks. ..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 19, 2025 at 12:40 AM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 18 Dec 2025 19:37:27 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING... A Critical area was added along and just east of the Front Range in Colorado from west of Colorado Springs extending north into southeast Wyoming. Given the strong westerly, downslope winds (sustained 15-30 mph and gusts of 50-80 mph) and RH below 15-20%, and this being the third day in the past week with similar conditions, the Critical area was added. Locally critical conditions are likely to extend farther south along the eastern slopes of the Colorado Rockies and into portions of southeast Colorado. The Elevated area was expanded across the southern Plains with a mix of dry downslope and return flow expected across the region. Locally critical conditions are likely to develop, but guidance is inconsistent on the location and magnitude of these conditions. If forecast guidance continues to trend drier with stronger winds, a critical area may be necessary across portions of eastern New Mexico, west Texas, and into western Oklahoma. ..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will break down through the day Friday and another strong mid-level jet will move across the Rockies. In the Plains, a broad and moderately deep surface trough will develop and shift eastward. These features will combine to promote another strong downslope wind regime in the immediate lee of the Rockies. ...Central/southern High Plains... Strong downslope winds will occur in the I-25 corridor again on Friday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, especially in Wyoming and Colorado, are expected. Wind gusts of greater than 60 mph could occur in the typically wind-prone gaps/foothills. Winds in New Mexico will generally be 15-20 mph. As with the last downslope wind event, RH will be uncertain during the afternoon. Higher confidence in 15-20% exists in New Mexico. With northward extent, RH will generally be higher, though pockets of 15-20% are at least possible. Cloud cover near the terrain is partly driving this uncertainty. Given the strength of winds and continued drying of fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Southern Plains... Winds of 15-20 mph will develop by the afternoon as the surface trough deepens. Dry return flow should foster 15-25% RH. Enhanced winds within the lowest 2-3 km should also foster stronger wind gusts, particularly during the afternoon/peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 18, 2025 at 8:20 PM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 18 Dec 2025 16:55:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... Strong sustained northwest winds of 15-40 mph gusting up to 70 mph have spread across much of Kansas, eastern Colorado, and into northern Oklahoma and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles this morning. Lower RH and stronger winds are forecast to spread farther south/east across the southern Plains today. Based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance, the critical area was expanded farther west/south, despite high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. There already appears to be one hot spot via GOES Imagery in Graham County in northwest Kansas. Eastern portions of the Elevated area in eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma may only see locally elevated conditions, but the Elevated area was maintained. ..Nauslar.. 12/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front. ...Central/southern Plains... Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25% range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH. Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude expansion of highlights into these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 18, 2025 at 8:20 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 18 Dec 2025 05:38:26 +0000
🔥Synopsis🔥
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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will break down through the day Friday and another strong mid-level jet will move across the Rockies. In the Plains, a broad and moderately deep surface trough will develop and shift eastward. These features will combine to promote another strong downslope wind regime in the immediate lee of the Rockies. ...Central/southern High Plains... Strong downslope winds will occur in the I-25 corridor again on Friday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, especially in Wyoming and Colorado, are expected. Wind gusts of greater than 60 mph could occur in the typically wind-prone gaps/foothills. Winds in New Mexico will generally be 15-20 mph. As with the last downslope wind event, RH will be uncertain during the afternoon. Higher confidence in 15-20% exists in New Mexico. With northward extent, RH will generally be higher, though pockets of 15-20% are at least possible. Cloud cover near the terrain is partly driving this uncertainty. Given the strength of winds and continued drying of fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Southern Plains... Winds of 15-20 mph will develop by the afternoon as the surface trough deepens. Dry return flow should foster 15-25% RH. Enhanced winds within the lowest 2-3 km should also foster stronger wind gusts, particularly during the afternoon/peak heating. ..Wendt.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 18, 2025 at 6:00 AM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 18 Dec 2025 05:36:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA🔥
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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... A cold front will push through the Plains into the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys today. On the western flank of the upper-trough, behind the cold front, strong northwesterly winds will persist through the morning and into the early/mid afternoon within the central/southern Plains. The cold air will lag behind the actual front. ...Central/southern Plains... Winds of 20-30 mph (with higher gusts) are probable across Kansas into northern Oklahoma. The strongest winds will occur in Kansas where surface temperatures will remain cooler. Despite the cold advection, clear skies and dry air will support RH in the 15-25% range in Texas/Oklahoma. RH in Kansas will likely be above 25% in most areas. However, the strong winds and drying fine fuels will still support rapid fire spread in these marginally critical RH conditions. Critical conditions are expected where the greatest overlap of strong surface winds and at least marginally low RH. Near-critical conditions are possible in parts of Oklahoma and Texas, but marginal fuels and less intense surface winds preclude expansion of highlights into these areas. ..Wendt.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 18, 2025 at 5:40 AM
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 17 Dec 2025 21:53:17 +0000
🔥D3/Friday - High Plains/southern Plains🔥
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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to persist through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend across the southern Plains and central/southern High Plains. A largely zonal upper-level flow regime is expected to persist through early next week before broad scale ridging becomes established over the south-central CONUS. This synoptic regime will favor lee troughing followed by frontal passages across the Plains with rain/snow chances for most regions, except for the Southwest/southern Plains where dry conditions will persist for the next several days. Long-range ensembles do show the potential for widespread precipitation late in the forecast period (D6/Mon to D8/Wed) for parts of the Southwest, but steady fuel drying is anticipated for the southern Plains/High Plains through next week. ...D3/Friday - High Plains/southern Plains... Dry conditions will prevail across the southern Plains early D3/Friday in the wake of Thursday's frontal passage. A surface high shifting eastward into the lower MS Valley will promote southwesterly winds across much of TX, OK, and KS. Coincidentally, an upper-disturbance moving across the northern Rockies will promote lee troughing along the High Plains, which will induce another downslope flow regime along the central Rockies and augment the pressure gradient over the Plains. 15-25 mph winds are anticipated within the dry return flow regime with RH reductions into the 15-25% range probable from the Permian Basin into western OK. In the lee of the Rockies, confidence in RH reductions is limited, but a strong wind signal coupled with drying fine fuels should promote at least a wind-driven fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday - southern High Plains... A cold front associated with a northern Plains/Great Lakes surface low will gradually push into the southern Plains through the day Saturday. While confidence in how far south this front will progress by peak heating remains uncertain, the general consensus among guidance is that 15-20 mph westerly pre-frontal winds will support adequate downslope warming/drying for areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 12/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 17, 2025 at 10:00 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 17 Dec 2025 19:58:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL KANSAS TO FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA🔥
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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL KANSAS TO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of central KS to north central OK for Thursday afternoon. Latest model guidance has trended towards stronger winds within the post-frontal regime with most solutions showing a swath of 20-25 mph sustained winds from southern NE into northern OK. Areas along and south of the I-70 corridor will likely see RH reductions into the 15-20% range by late afternoon, which will support an area of critical fire weather conditions. Latest ERCs across this region continue to suggest fuels are only modestly receptive; however, 4-inch soil moisture percentiles range from 5-10% of normal across much of southern KS and OK, suggesting that dormant fine fuels may see rapid drying that could support fire spread. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1157 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within a post-cold-front regime, strong northwesterly winds will overspread parts of the central/southern Plains on Thursday. Colder air will filter southward, but this should be lagging behind the front. ...Central/southern Plains... Despite cold air advection through the day, generally clear skies and dry air will promote RH reductions in the 20-30% range. Farther west, into the High Plains, 15-20% RH will be possible. Guidance does show a fair amount of variability with regard to surface temperatures during the afternoon, especially with northern extent. However, sustained winds/gusts will tend to be strongest in the central Plains with weaker winds with southward extent. With fine fuels showing sufficient dryness in some areas and the winds being near or just above critical thresholds, elevated fire weather can be expected from Kansas into North Texas. These conditions may extend farther south and west, but combinations of questionable fuels and duration limit confidence in expanding highlights into these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 17, 2025 at 8:20 PM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 17 Dec 2025 17:00:29 +0000
🔥 /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025/

🔥
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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor expansions made across southeast CO/southwest KS to reflect latest high-res guidance. 16 UTC surface observations show winds beginning to increase along the northern CO Front Range, but the strongest winds are expected later this afternoon (mainly between 20-00 UTC) as the mid-level jet begins to impinge on the northern Rockies. It remains unclear exactly how severe RH reductions will be in the lee of the immediate front range where peak winds are expected. While some guidance shows RH minimums near 20%, morning solutions don't appear to be accurately capturing recent satellite trends with more widespread cloud cover noted in GOES imagery than depicted in recent HRRR/RRFS runs. This continues to limit confidence in the potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions, though localized critical conditions may emerge if sufficient clearing can occur. Regardless, the strong winds coupled with slowly increasing ERC values (near the 70th percentile) should still support a wind-driven fire weather risk. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper trough will move through the Northwest and reach the Plains by Thursday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen in the northern Plains with a trough extending into the central/southern Plains. ...Central/southern High Plains... Strong mid-level winds will be nearly perpendicular to the Rockies. This, coupled with a strong cross-Divide pressure gradient, will foster strong sustained winds and stronger gusts in the immediate lee of the terrain. Sustained 20-30 mph winds will be probable in the terrain-favored areas. A period of wind gusts to 60-70 mph are expected in the lower foothills. Farther east and south, 15-20 mph will become more common. RH will be above elevated criteria in many places, but 15-25% will be possible from Wyoming into Colorado. Farther south, RH will more likely be around 15-20%. With fuels having continued to dry, the strong surface winds will still lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather. ...Piedmont... Dry and modestly breezy conditions appear possible within the region during the afternoon. RH could fall as low as 20-25%, but there is variability within guidance. Winds will generally be light at around 10 mph. Locally elevated conditions are possible, but the duration/spatial extent is too limited and uncertain for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 17, 2025 at 5:20 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 17 Dec 2025 05:58:26 +0000
🔥Synopsis🔥
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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Within a post-cold-front regime, strong northwesterly winds will overspread parts of the central/southern Plains on Thursday. Colder air will filter southward, but this should be lagging behind the front. ...Central/southern Plains... Despite cold air advection through the day, generally clear skies and dry air will promote RH reductions in the 20-30% range. Farther west, into the High Plains, 15-20% RH will be possible. Guidance does show a fair amount of variability with regard to surface temperatures during the afternoon, especially with northern extent. However, sustained winds/gusts will tend to be strongest in the central Plains with weaker winds with southward extent. With fine fuels showing sufficient dryness in some areas and the winds being near or just above critical thresholds, elevated fire weather can be expected from Kansas into North Texas. These conditions may extend farther south and west, but combinations of questionable fuels and duration limit confidence in expanding highlights into these areas. ..Wendt.. 12/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 17, 2025 at 6:20 AM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 17 Dec 2025 05:51:25 +0000
🔥Synopsis🔥
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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A potent upper trough will move through the Northwest and reach the Plains by Thursday morning. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen in the northern Plains with a trough extending into the central/southern Plains. ...Central/southern High Plains... Strong mid-level winds will be nearly perpendicular to the Rockies. This, coupled with a strong cross-Divide pressure gradient, will foster strong sustained winds and stronger gusts in the immediate lee of the terrain. Sustained 20-30 mph winds will be probable in the terrain-favored areas. A period of wind gusts to 60-70 mph are expected in the lower foothills. Farther east and south, 15-20 mph will become more common. RH will be above elevated criteria in many places, but 15-25% will be possible from Wyoming into Colorado. Farther south, RH will more likely be around 15-20%. With fuels having continued to dry, the strong surface winds will still lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather. ...Piedmont... Dry and modestly breezy conditions appear possible within the region during the afternoon. RH could fall as low as 20-25%, but there is variability within guidance. Winds will generally be light at around 10 mph. Locally elevated conditions are possible, but the duration/spatial extent is too limited and uncertain for highlights. ..Wendt.. 12/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
December 17, 2025 at 6:00 AM