SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
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SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
@spc-storms.nws-bot.us
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Unofficial bot sharing alerts from SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches.

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spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 30, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana tonight. ...Southeast TX and western LA... Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the Plains lifting into the Midwest and western Great Lakes this evening. Ascent attendant to the trough was passing over parts of southeast TX and western LA. A surface low over KS will continue to deepen as it lifts northward into the Midwest this evening. Southerly low-level flow along the TX coast will continue transporting a partially modified Gulf air mass northward ahead of a strong cold front trailing the low. This front will surge south, gradually shrinking the already confined warm sector over the southeastern TX Coastal Plain tonight. Within the shrinking warm sector, scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms may slowly intensify with continued low-level warm advection over east/southeast TX and far western LA. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support occasional stronger updrafts despite only modest mid-level lapse rates and nebulous ascent. Veering low-level hodographs could support weak updraft rotation with the strongest cells. A brief tornado, marginal hail and occasional strong gusts are possible, especially near a diffuse warm front across east TX and far western LA. These storms will persist tonight and eventually merge with the cold front moving south. Isolated thunderstorms along the front over north TX should continue to increase in coverage as the front surges south into more robust surface moisture. Current guidance shows these storms eventually merging with the warm sector convection and moving offshore between 10-12z Sunday. While surface temperatures should gradually cool this evening, sufficient moisture and weak buoyancy will maintain a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail with the stronger cores. This appears most likely near the coast where the front will be less likely to undercut ongoing convection. The severe risk will quickly decrease into early Sunday as the front and remaining warm sector are pushed offshore. ..Lyons.. 11/30/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 30, 2025 at 1:00 AM
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SPC Nov 29, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments required - mainly removal of thunder probabilities across portions of OK/KS/MO where the mid-level vorticity maximum and surface cold front have already passed through. Across east/southeast TX, modest low-level moisture advection continues northward with temperatures warming into the upper 70s and low 80s for a few locations - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by high-res guidance. This additional heating combined with persistent, but shallow, convective showers across southeast TX lend confidence that at least a few attempts at deeper convection are likely by peak heating in the coming hours. Any appreciable tornado threat will likely be limited to near/along a diffuse warm frontal zone draped roughly from the Houston to Waco, TX area where low-level winds remain south/southeasterly. Further north near the DFW metro, deepening cumulus is noted in visible imagery where the surface cold front is impinging on the northern extent of appreciable MLCAPE. Thunderstorm development along the front appears likely in the coming hours, but the modest buoyancy profiles should modulate convective intensity. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025/ ...Central/East/Southeast Texas into Western Louisiana... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Plains this morning will continue to progress quickly east-northeastward today across the mid MS Valley/Midwest and OH Valley. A related surface low over eastern KS will likewise develop northeastward towards IL by this evening, with an attendant cold front sweeping south-southeastward across OK/TX and the ArkLaTex through tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will continue to aid the northward transport of a partially modified Gulf airmass over portions of central/east TX and perhaps western LA. Thunderstorms should eventually develop by late afternoon/early evening along the front across north-central TX and vicinity, even though large-scale ascent will remain nebulous behind the departing mid-level shortwave trough. Filtered daytime heating will result in modest destabilization across the warm sector today, although mid-level lapse rates are not expected to remain modest. Sufficient deep-layer shear associated with a subtropical/southern branch of a mid/upper-level jet should support some updraft organization. Hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the stronger cores that can develop and be sustained. But, the surging cold front will likely undercut convection fairly quickly. There also appears to be some chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front from parts of central into southeast TX late this afternoon. The large-scale forcing for ascent with southward extent will remain weak/nebulous at best, but low-level confluence may aid in convective initiation across this area. If these thunderstorms can develop, they would have access to greater instability and sufficient low-level shear to pose some threat for a tornado or two. However, the overall environment still supports maintaining a Marginal Risk given the departing shortwave trough and related large-scale forcing, modest lapse rates aloft, and tendency for the low-level flow to gradually weaken/veer with time through this evening and tonight. Day 1 Outlook Image
November 30, 2025 at 12:20 AM
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SPC Nov 29, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana through tonight. ...Central/East/Southeast Texas into Western Louisiana... A mid-level shortwave trough over the Plains this morning will continue to progress quickly east-northeastward today across the mid MS Valley/Midwest and OH Valley. A related surface low over eastern KS will likewise develop northeastward towards IL by this evening, with an attendant cold front sweeping south-southeastward across OK/TX and the ArkLaTex through tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will continue to aid the northward transport of a partially modified Gulf airmass over portions of central/east TX and perhaps western LA. Thunderstorms should eventually develop by late afternoon/early evening along the front across north-central TX and vicinity, even though large-scale ascent will remain nebulous behind the departing mid-level shortwave trough. Filtered daytime heating will result in modest destabilization across the warm sector today, although mid-level lapse rates are not expected to remain modest. Sufficient deep-layer shear associated with a subtropical/southern branch of a mid/upper-level jet should support some updraft organization. Hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with the stronger cores that can develop and be sustained. But, the surging cold front will likely undercut convection fairly quickly. There also appears to be some chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front from parts of central into southeast TX late this afternoon. The large-scale forcing for ascent with southward extent will remain weak/nebulous at best, but low-level confluence may aid in convective initiation across this area. If these thunderstorms can develop, they would have access to greater instability and sufficient low-level shear to pose some threat for a tornado or two. However, the overall environment still supports maintaining a Marginal Risk given the departing shortwave trough and related large-scale forcing, modest lapse rates aloft, and tendency for the low-level flow to gradually weaken/veer with time through this evening and tonight. ..Gleason/Moore.. 11/29/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 29, 2025 at 4:40 PM
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SPC Nov 29, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight. ...Synopsis... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into the central Plains, with another shortwave in its wake over central WY. The lead shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward, reaching MO by this afternoon before then pivoting more northeastward from the Mid MS Valley into Lower MI. This progression will be accompanied by a strengthening of the mid-level flow as it spreads from the central Plains into the OH and TN Valleys. A surface low, recently analyzed over central KS, will accompany the lead shortwave as well, moving rapidly northeastward across MO and IL before ending the period over Lower MI. A cold front attendant to this low will sweep eastward across the Ozarks and southeastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. A large area of elevated thunderstorms is expected from the Arklatex into the Mid MS Valley, supported by strong southwesterly low-level flow and associated warm-air advection ahead of the front. More intense and potentially severe storms are anticipated along and ahead of the front across central/east TX and western LA. ...Central/East TX...Western LA... Recent surface analysis placed mid 50s dewpoints as far north as the TX Big Country, with 60s dewpoints farther south in the TX Hill Country. Low-level moisture advection is forecast to continue throughout the day, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching the Red River and low 60s dewpoints likely reaching the Metroplex vicinity ahead of the cold front. Primary thunderstorm activity is anticipated along the front as it interacts with the modestly moist and buoyant airmass ahead of it. Moderate mid-level flow is expected, but the fast-moving front will still likely lead to a prevalence of undercut updrafts. Even so, sufficient deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) could support a few stronger clusters as a broken line develops and surges south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some damaging gusts are possible as the front moves quickly toward the coast and reaches the Gulf early Sunday morning. There is a low-probability chance that thunderstorms develop from the TX Hill Country into the Brazos Valley during the afternoon, supported by low-level confluence within a diurnally destabilized airmass. If any of these updrafts are able to mature, there is enough low-level curvature to support transient supercell structures along with occasionally organized multicells. A brief tornado and marginally severe hail are possible with any stronger, longer-duration updrafts. ..Mosier/Dean.. 11/29/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 29, 2025 at 4:40 PM
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SPC Nov 29, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the central U.S. while rapidly tracking eastward, encouraging surface high pressure to overspread most of the CONUS on Day 3/Monday. As such, thunderstorm development will be limited over most locales given static stability. However, through the period, the eastward progression of the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage surface low development along the eastern Gulf Coast. Low-level warm air advection ahead of the developing low will allow low-level moisture to move inland by up to a couple hundred miles, fostering enough buoyancy for scattered thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may first develop along the TX/LA coastlines during the day, with thunderstorms then developing over southern MS to the northern FL Peninsula late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. However, this buoyancy, which may be largely elevated in nature, appears too scant to support organized severe potential, with no severe probabilities introduced at this time. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025 Day 3 Outlook Image
November 29, 2025 at 8:40 AM
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SPC Nov 29, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as a second mid-level trough to the west impinges on the Plains states tomorrow (Saturday). This upper-air pattern will support surface high pressure overspreading much of the CONUS, from the northern Rockies to the Atlantic Coastline. However, on the southern periphery of surface high pressure, a cold front will approach the Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula through the first half of the period. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F will support enough buoyancy for scattered thunderstorm development, given sufficient lift due to low-level convergence along the cold front. A couple of lightning flashes are possible over the central Rockies as a pocked of cooler air aloft overspreads the region in tandem with the passing mid-level trough. However, any scant buoyancy that develops may only be adequate enough for lightning flashes that are too sparse for the inclusion of thunder probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025 Day 2 Outlook Image
November 29, 2025 at 6:40 AM
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SPC Nov 29, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of east and southeast Texas into western Louisiana today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough and increasingly strong westerly flow over the central US are forecast to quickly intensify today, moving into the Ohio Valley by tonight. Accompanying the strengthening trough, a surface low over OK will deepen and shift toward the mid MS valley. Trailing the low, a strong cold front will sweep southeastward with increasing moisture ahead of it over the far southern Plains. Ahead of the front, isolated strong to severe storms are possible over parts of East TX and western LA this afternoon into early Sunday morning. ...Eastern Texas into western LA... South of the surface low across parts of central and southeast TX, low-level warm air advection is expected much of the day associated with a weakening 850 mb low-level jet. Persistent southerly flow will help transport low to mid 60s F dewpoints northward across the TX coastal plain into portions of central TX and far western LA. Filtered diurnal heating should allow for some warming of the relatively cool boundary layer. This warming, along with the increase in low-level moisture, should support at least weak destabilization by peak heating as cold mid-level temperatures from the approaching trough move overhead. While overall forcing and flow aloft should be modest south of the primary upper trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible within the warm advection regime through the afternoon and into the evening/overnight hours. Veering hodographs and a subtle increase in deep-layer shear should favor some storm organization with convection across southeast TX into far western LA. Wind fields will be weak, but slightly enlarged low-level hodographs (ESRH 100-200 m2/s2) and a cellular storm mode could favor transient supercell structures along with occasionally organized multicells. A brief tornado and marginally severe hail are possible with the stronger updrafts. While any sustained severe risk is likely to be contingent upon sufficient warming for surface-base buoyancy, at least a low-end risk is possible from late afternoon through much of the overnight hours ahead of the cold front. As the cold front moves south from the Red River into central TX this afternoon and into the evening, additional storms are likely to form along and behind it as the front encounters the northern fringes of the moisture plume. Despite sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg), the undercutting nature of the surging front should tend to limit storm intensity. Still, sufficient deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) could support a few stronger clusters as a broken line develops and surges south. Isolated hail, and perhaps some strong gusts are possible as the front is expected to quickly move toward the coast and reach the Gulf early Sunday morning. ..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/29/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 29, 2025 at 6:00 AM
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SPC Nov 29, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated tonight. ...Synopsis... Evening water-vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave trough over the Plains moving eastward ahead of a second, more intense, upper trough over the central and northern Rockies. As the primary trough intensifies to the west, the increases in west/southwesterly midlevel flow will help deep a surface low moving from eastern CO/western KS into OK tonight. The southerly winds will allow modest northward moisture return tonight across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. As the surface low strengthens with the approach of the western trough this evening and overnight, low-level warm advection should also intensify. Strong isentropic ascent atop the cool and relatively dry boundary-layer over the southern Plains should support increasing coverage of showers and elevated thunderstorms already ongoing from central and western North TX into OK and eventually the lower MO Valley/Ozarks. With meager buoyancy aloft (MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less) the potential for stronger updrafts appears quite limited despite increasingly robust deep-layer shear profiles. While a stronger storm or two with the potential for small hail cannot be completely ruled out, severe potential remains very low. ..Lyons.. 11/29/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 29, 2025 at 1:00 AM
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SPC Nov 28, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today/tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 11/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025/ ...Southern Plains vicinity... A midlevel shortwave impulse will eject across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains today ahead of a stronger upper trough digging southeast from the northern Rockies into much of the Great Plains tonight. Resulting increases in west/southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread weak northward moisture return across TX as a surface low develops/modestly deepens over KS/OK. Showers will increase today into tonight from central TX, north and east across portions of the Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight as midlevel temperatures cool and lapse rates modestly steepen. However, meager boundary layer moisture will limit instability, with forecast soundings generally indicating 500 J/kg or less MUCAPE. Severe potential appears low given expected modest updrafts intensity/longevity. Day 1 Outlook Image
November 28, 2025 at 7:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 28, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southward into the Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will pivot across the Northeast through early Monday. West of this trough, another strong trough will dive southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies. For the southern Plains into the Southeast, moderate westerly winds aloft will persist with nearly zonal flow. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will extend from MT into the Plains early Sunday, settling across the Midwest/mid MS and OH Valleys into Monday morning. Given the cool air mass over most of the CONUS, thunderstorms chances will be limited to the immediate Gulf Coast where the cold front will undercut residual moisture. Given minimal elevated instability and lift, any convection is expected to remain non-severe. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2025 Day 3 Outlook Image
November 28, 2025 at 7:20 PM
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SPC Nov 28, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley and upper Great Lakes on Saturday, with a midlevel speed max strengthening as it expands northeastward from KS to NY. East of this system, upper ridging will occur over the East as a trough moves out of the Maritimes. At the surface, low pressure will move from OK/KS into northern IL by 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwest across southern MO, western AR, and northern TX by that time. A large area of high pressure will remain over much of the eastern CONUS, with a surface ridge extending into the northern Gulf for much of the day. As such, low-level moisture return will be limited from the western Gulf into TX, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints spreading northward ahead of the cold front. Southwesterly 850 mb winds to around 50 kt will aid elevated moisture advection across eastern TX/LA, while the stronger surface-based instability stays generally west of the Sabine River. ...Eastern TX into western LA... Modest heating is forecast over central TX ahead of the cold front during the afternoon, though much of eastern TX into LA will remain cool at the surface. Coincident with peak heating, thunderstorms are likely to develop as the cold front intercepts the moist plume over northern TX around 21Z. While profiles aloft will be cool, lapse rates will not be particularly steep. With MLCAPE perhaps up to 1000 J/kg within the theta-e plume, and effective shear of 30-40 kt, marginal hail cannot be ruled out. Locally strong gusts may also accompany the storms as the cold front surges south. Farther south, additional activity may develop ahead of the cold front over southeast TX as moisture increases. Low-level wind fields will be weak overall, but veering with height. As such, a weak/brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, a line of storms will push south along with the surging cold front, with marginal hail or locally gusty winds. Severe risk into LA is less certain, as the surface air mass remains cool with elevated instability. SBCAPE may develop into southwest LA late in the period, supporting low severe probabilities. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2025 Day 2 Outlook Image
November 28, 2025 at 5:40 PM
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SPC Nov 28, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today/tonight. ...Southern Plains vicinity... A midlevel shortwave impulse will eject across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains today ahead of a stronger upper trough digging southeast from the northern Rockies into much of the Great Plains tonight. Resulting increases in west/southwesterly midlevel flow will overspread weak northward moisture return across TX as a surface low develops/modestly deepens over KS/OK. Showers will increase today into tonight from central TX, north and east across portions of the Plains into the Ozarks. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight as midlevel temperatures cool and lapse rates modestly steepen. However, meager boundary layer moisture will limit instability, with forecast soundings generally indicating 500 J/kg or less MUCAPE. Severe potential appears low given expected modest updrafts intensity/longevity. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 28, 2025 at 4:40 PM
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SPC Nov 28, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0625 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today. ...Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper ridge that has dominated the weather over the southwest states is rapidly breaking down, as a strong upper trough over OR approaches the Rockies. Large-scale height falls and increasing low-level warm/moist advection will result in marginal instability over TX and the development of scattered thunderstorms later today. Convection has already begun to form over the Big Bend region of TX this morning. Thunderstorms will further develop over west TX through early afternoon, then expand eastward into parts of OK and central TX this evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will be present over the central/southern Plains, but limited moisture return will generally keep CAPE values below 1000 J/kg and limit updraft strength/severe potential. Nevertheless, the strongest storms this evening could produce small hail. ..Hart/Dean.. 11/28/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 28, 2025 at 12:40 PM
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SPC Nov 28, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
⛈️DISCUSSION🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple instances of surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath deep-layer ascent. A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday, with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front (assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible. Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook. Day 4-8 Outlook Image
November 28, 2025 at 9:00 AM
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SPC Nov 28, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the central and southern Rockies as a broader upper trough overspreads the northeast on Sunday. As a surface low rapidly ejects toward the Northeast Atlantic coastline, surface high pressure will overspread much of the Interior West and most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Static stability with the high pressure should limit thunderstorm development over most areas. The best chance for any thunderstorm development will be along the Gulf Coast ahead of a surface cold front early Sunday. Before the front moves offshore, near 60 F surface dewpoints along the coast will promote marginal buoyancy, which will support thunderstorm development along the front given low-level convergence. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025 Day 3 Outlook Image
November 28, 2025 at 8:40 AM
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SPC Nov 28, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western and central Louisiana tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon or evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains and Middle MS Valley tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in the rapid northeastward progression of a surface low, with a cold front poised to surge southward across the southern Plains toward the Arklatex. Seasonal moisture will advect northward in advance of the surface low across much of central and eastern TX to the Sabine River Valley, promoting enough buoyancy, amid strong deep-layer ascent, for thunderstorm development. Given the expected presence of a strong southerly low-level jet and accompanying vertical wind shear, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Eastern TX to the Arklatex and Sabine River Valley... Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z Saturday) due to an ongoing warm-air advection regime, driven by a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet. While low-level cloud cover should persist for much of the day across eastern TX into the Sabine River Valley, pockets of occasional heating will help boost surface temperatures into the upper 60s F. Should this occur, mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, may yield MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg in spots. The latest guidance consensus depicts two general focal points for thunderstorm initiation. One is along the approaching cold front in northeast TX into southwestern AR and far northwestern LA by early afternoon, where linear convection may develop and support severe gusts. Ahead of the cold front, low-level confluence bands, over the TX coastal plain, within the primary moisture axis of the warm-air advection regime, may also support thunderstorm initiation. Despite the departing nature of the low-level jet, appreciable south-southwesterly 850 mb flow (30+ kts), beneath 50+ kt west-northwesterlies glancing the Arklatex, will support elongated hodographs and up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear. Transient supercells may develop in these confluence bands by afternoon into the evening hours, capable of an instance or two of severe wind/hail, and perhaps even a tornado. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025 Day 2 Outlook Image
November 28, 2025 at 7:20 AM
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SPC Nov 28, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorm activity may begin to develop across parts of western Texas by this afternoon, before increasing within an expanding area of precipitation across parts of the central and southern Great Plains toward lower Missouri and Mississippi Valleys tonight. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplifying flow, including building mid/upper ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, it appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations may consolidate into larger-scale digging troughing across and east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies later today through tonight. There is notable spread still evident within/among the model output concerning this evolution, but models generally indicate that this will be accompanied by modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of eastern Colorado into the adjacent central Great Plains by 12Z Saturday. This is close on the heels of a cool/dry intrusion still ongoing across the central into southwestern Gulf Basin, in the wake of amplified mid/upper troughing approaching the Atlantic Seaboard. However, the most significant short wave perturbation still digging within this regime is forecast to rapidly accelerate into the northwestern Atlantic today through tonight, and trailing surface ridging likely will begin shifting east of the southern Great Plains/lower Mississippi Valley. Models suggest that this will occur in a manner allowing for a strengthening southerly return flow from the Texas South Plains/lower Rio Grande Valley toward the lower Missouri Valley by late tonight. This may be accompanied by rapid north-northeastward advection of moisture now present across/east of the Mexican Plateau, and include near-surface dew points increasing through the mid 50s to lower 60s F across Deep South Texas into portions of western North Texas by the end of the period. However, to the north of Deep South Texas, where relatively warm mid-level temperatures probably will inhibit thunderstorm development, the moisture return is generally forecast above a residual cool/stable near-surface layer, which will remain deeper with northward/eastward extent into the central Great Plains and lower/middle Mississippi Valley. Still, forecast soundings indicate that this moistening, near the base of a layer of steepening lapse rates aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, will provide support for convective development capable of producing lightning. It appears that this could initiate across the Permian Basin vicinity by this afternoon, if not perhaps earlier, before forcing for ascent supports increasingly widespread convection and embedded weak thunderstorm activity across parts of the southern into central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley tonight. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/28/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 28, 2025 at 5:20 AM
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SPC Nov 28, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation tonight. ...01Z Update... Drying and stabilizing trends are now well underway across southeastern Florida coastal areas and the Keys, where lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields have veered to northwesterly. Some lightning was noted earlier in a convective band within west-southwesterly low-level flow emanating from Lake Ontario, where trajectories across the relatively warm lake waters are maximized. Additional convection occasionally becoming capable of producing lightning appears possible to the east of Lake Ontario through at least 05-06Z, before this potential becomes more negligible as mean lower/mid-tropospheric winds begin to veer to a more westerly/northwesterly component. ..Kerr.. 11/28/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 28, 2025 at 1:00 AM
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SPC Nov 27, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA🌪️
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Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon or evening. ...Synopsis... The shortwave trough over the central Plains will move eastward as mid-level westerly flow intensifies from the Plains to the MS Valley and Midwest Saturday/Sunday. A surface low attendant to the trough will move from OK/KS to the southern Great Lakes as a strong cold front moves south from the Red River to the lower MS Valley. Moisture return ahead of the front will support scattered thunderstorms across eastern TX, the Sabine Valley and lower MS valley through early morning Sunday. ...Southeast TX to western LA... With southerly surface flow expected to develop ahead of the deepening surface cyclone over the Plains Saturday, low-level moisture advection should increase across coastal and southeast TX into LA. A warm front will slowly lift northward, stalling over southwest LA as it encounters a deep and cool air mass farther north. Continued low-level warm air advection (despite ongoing showers and remnant clouds) should allow for gradual destabilization Saturday afternoon. While overall forcing for ascent appears weak as the upper trough departs to the north, scattered thunderstorm development appears probable, both within the low-level warm advection regime and along the approaching cold front from the Northwest. Given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE could support a few stronger updrafts late Saturday through Sunday morning. Residual westerly flow aloft may also favor some storm organization with multicell lines or clusters and perhaps transient supercells capable of damaging gusts and hail. This is most likely from the TX coastal Plain to southwestern LA before the cold front moves offshore into the Gulf. ..Lyons.. 11/27/2025 Day 3 Outlook Image
November 27, 2025 at 10:20 PM
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SPC Nov 27, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
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Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the central US will shift eastward behind a departing trough over the East. A second trough will deepen over the Rockies encouraging lee cyclogenesis over the southern Plains Friday. As the surface low deepens, modest low-level moisture will advect northward with a 40-60 kt southerly low-level jet. Lift from the approaching trough and an attendant cold front will support isolated thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the lower MO Valley late Friday into early Saturday. ...Southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley... Ahead of the lee low, strong low-level warm air advection will transport middling surface moisture northward over parts of central/north TX into southern OK ahead of the surging cold front. In the wake of the prior frontal passage, a persistent surface stable layer is likely to prevent substantial northward moisture return over the southern Plains. However, cold mid-level temperatures (H5 temps -24C) beneath the deepening upper trough will likely support some elevated buoyancy development late Friday, overnight into Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within the boarder warm advection band. While generally weak, (~250-500 J/kg MUCAPE) sufficient destabilization and strong flow aloft could support an occasional stronger storm capable of small hail from northeast TX into eastern OK and the Ozarks. But, given the limited thermodynamics, a sustained severe risk appears unlikely. ..Lyons.. 11/27/2025 Day 2 Outlook Image
November 27, 2025 at 10:20 PM
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SPC Nov 27, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to the thunder line to account for ongoing trends across the Florida peninsula. Otherwise, no additional changes are needed. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the central/eastern CONUS will develop slowly eastward through the period. Isolated thunderstorm potential today will generally remain limited to parts of south FL and the Keys along/ahead of a southward-moving cold front. 11/12Z soundings from XMR/TBW/KEY show southwesterly winds strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. While sufficient deep-layer shear may exist to support a stronger thunderstorm or two this afternoon, especially along the Atlantic Coast in south FL, the presence of poor mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level winds should hinder the risk for organized severe thunderstorms over land. Isolated lightning flashes may also occur with snow bands occurring in western NY off of Lake Ontario. Day 1 Outlook Image
November 27, 2025 at 10:20 PM
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SPC Nov 27, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the central/eastern CONUS will develop slowly eastward through the period. Isolated thunderstorm potential today will generally remain limited to parts of south FL and the Keys along/ahead of a southward-moving cold front. 11/12Z soundings from XMR/TBW/KEY show southwesterly winds strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. While sufficient deep-layer shear may exist to support a stronger thunderstorm or two this afternoon, especially along the Atlantic Coast in south FL, the presence of poor mid-level lapse rates and weak low-level winds should hinder the risk for organized severe thunderstorms over land. Isolated lightning flashes may also occur with snow bands occurring in western NY off of Lake Ontario. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/27/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 27, 2025 at 4:40 PM
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SPC Nov 27, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not anticipated today. ...FL... A large upper trough remains dominant over the eastern U.S. today, with a cold front sweeping southward across FL. A few thunderstorms will be possible over central/south FL through the afternoon, but low-level drying will eventually stabilize the air mass and end the convective threat after dark. ...PA/NY... Cold temperatures aloft and warm lake temperatures could be sufficient for a few lightning strikes in the lee of Lake Erie and Ontario today. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates and the depth of the unstable layer will be sufficient for occasional thundersnow through today and this evening. ..Hart/Dean.. 11/27/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 27, 2025 at 4:40 PM
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SPC Nov 27, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
⛈️DISCUSSION🌪️
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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week, ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs, isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front. However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance. Day 4-8 Outlook Image
November 27, 2025 at 10:00 AM
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SPC Nov 27, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY🌪️
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Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into northern Louisiana Saturday afternoon or evening. ...Synopsis... A surface low will translate northeast from the southern Plains toward the Great lakes as a broad mid-level trough overspreads the central U.S. on Saturday. Relatively rich low-level moisture return will occur across the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should occur within a warm-air advection regime. Given strong vertical wind shear in place due to a departing low-level jet, isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the TX Coastal Plain toward the Sabine River Valley ahead of the approaching cold front. ...Southeast Texas into northern Louisiana... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley within the warm-air advection regime. Through the day, airmass modification will result in some boundary layer destabilization as cloudiness and precipitation gradually clears the warm sector over southeastern TX. Over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize if surface temperatures can exceed 70 F given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. A surface cold front will sweep southeastward toward eastern TX. However, the mid-level trough should pivot northeastward through the day. As such, the surface low and accompanying low-level jet are poised to depart the southern Plains and track away from the axis of greater moisture and instability, which should limit severe potential to some degree. Still, low-level convergence along the cold front should support thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating across the TX coastal plain to the Sabine River Valley. Strong enough flow along the western periphery of the departing low-level jet, beneath modest westerlies, will support elongated hodographs and over 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Given the aforementioned buoyancy, multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells are possible. Isolated severe gusts/hail are possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025 Day 3 Outlook Image
November 27, 2025 at 8:40 AM