MD 2269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST Mesoscale Discussion 2269 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the southern California Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241522Z - 241715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado is possible along the immediate coast as a shallow convective band moves east this morning. DISCUSSION...A shallow band of convection, not currently deep enough to support lightning production, continues to move eastward into the LA Basin region ahead of a strong shortwave trough. The strongest parts of this band remain near the coastline where dewpoints appear to be in the low 60s F. Prior to the passage of this activity, KVTX VAD data did show notable low-level shear/SRH. Recent velocity imagery has also depicted weak, transient areas of low-level rotation. A brief tornado will remain possible as this activity continues east. Strong and gusty winds may also accompany the band. The primary threat area will likely remain along the immediate coast given decreasing surface moisture and buoyancy inland. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 12/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX... LAT...LON 33911889 34031895 34311890 34181855 33971821 33781789 33581766 33461763 33411778 33461806 33551816 33911889 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH Read more

MD 2268 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST Mesoscale Discussion 2268 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Areas affected...Central/Southern California Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241311Z - 241445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Localized risk for strong to severe gusts and perhaps a brief waterspout/tornado may increase over the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Radar data from KVBX over the last hour or so depicts a north/south-oriented band of shallow/cellular convection with transient rotation streaming northward across the Channel Islands toward Point Conception. Over the next couple hours, a modest increase in boundary-layer moisture/low-level theta-e toward the immediate coast and localized terrain effects may support some increase in updraft intensity. Despite limited buoyancy, strong deep-layer flow/shear and low-level hodograph curvature (200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KVBX/KVTX VWP) may favor a risk of strong to locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief waterspout/tornado with any sustained surface-based convection that can evolve over the next couple hours. ..Weinman/Smith.. 12/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOX... LAT...LON 34351884 34131872 33981882 34011915 34281951 34331997 34392065 34572066 34692051 34711990 34561925 34351884 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 2266 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST Mesoscale Discussion 2266 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Areas affected...Central/Northern California Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241005Z - 241130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Convectively enhanced severe wind gusts may impact coastal areas from Monterey Bay to the Bay Area during the next couple hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KMUX shows a loosely organized line segment with a northern book-end mesovortex moving east-northeastward at around 50 kt toward the Monterey Bay area. Despite limited buoyancy (especially over land areas), very strong wind fields (60+ kt in the lowest 1 km AGL per KMUX VWP) and relatively moist conditions/neutral static stability in the boundary layer may support convectively enhanced severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado risk over the next couple hours as this activity moves ashore over the immediate coastal areas. ..Weinman/Smith.. 12/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MTR... LAT...LON 37422270 37632277 37802249 37762222 37592200 36852160 36492157 36352186 36492212 37422270 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 23 00:48:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 23 00:48:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2265 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. Mesoscale Discussion 2265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Areas affected...far northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 220932Z - 221330Z SUMMARY...Wintry precipitation will continue this morning across the region. Amounts should generally remain light, but may pose some travel issues before temperatures warm above freezing this morning. DISCUSSION...Light wintry mix/freezing rain has developed across the region this morning in response to strong warm-air advection/frontogenesis in the 850-700mb layer. RAP point forecast soundings across Minnesota this morning depict surface temperatures generally near 0C/32F beneath 750mb, with wet-bulb temperatures generally a few degrees below 0C/32F within a region of low-level dry air. As the aforementioned precipitation moves into the area, precipitation may initially fall as sleet before transitioning to freezing rain or rain as persistent moist, warm-air advection warms and moistens the low level profile. Farther east/northeast, temperature profiles are colder across Wisconsin and should support light snow, although a mix or change to sleet/freezing rain/rain remains possible (especially closer to Minnesota) as low levels warm. Precipitation amounts are expected to remain generally light this morning. However, brief travel impacts may develop -- especially across Wisconsin where the colder surface temperatures reside -- this morning before temperatures warm above 0C/32F. ..Marsh.. 12/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45339265 45229100 44709001 44218977 43738988 43519036 43529113 43649190 43759288 44119383 44469455 44839478 45239453 45329344 45339265 Read more

MD 2264 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 642... FOR PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH Mesoscale Discussion 2264 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Deep South Concerning...Tornado Watch 642... Valid 190054Z - 190230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 642 continues. SUMMARY...Limited tornado and strong gust threats should persist for at least a few more hours as broken bands of thunderstorms consolidate into a line, with the greatest potential across east-central Mississippi into western Alabama. An additional WW issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells have largely diminished, but one is still ongoing in Newton County, MS. The east-central MS/western AL area will have the primary near-term tornado threat, owing to its proximity to modest but weakening buoyancy sampled by the 00Z JAN sounding. 5.5 to 6 C/km mid-level lapse rates in the JAN/BNA/BMX soundings will remain a limiting factor to more intense updrafts. But enlarged low-level hodographs and persistent low 60s surface dew points will support potential for a tornado or two. Farther north-northeast, faster propagation of cold front convection relative to the pre-frontal swath should yield consolidation into a QLCS that progresses towards the southern Appalachians. Strong gusts capable of locally damaging winds should be the main threat as surface-based instability becomes negligible, east and north of central AL where mid to upper 50s surface dew points persist. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 32538919 32868837 33718783 34618766 35068736 35468708 35688639 35648624 35608585 35238575 34808582 34388589 33958607 33538627 32948704 32568752 32408794 32258830 32538919 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 2263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN MS...WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN Mesoscale Discussion 2263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Areas affected...eastern MS...western/northern AL...southern Middle TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182236Z - 190000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Increasing potential for a tornadic supercell or two appears to be underway across eastern Mississippi. This should spread into parts of western to northern Alabama through mid-evening. A tornado watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...A broken swath of semi-discrete convection has increased from northeast to central MS along a pre-frontal confluence axis. Surface temperatures have reached the low 60s north to upper 60s south ahead of this axis, with 70s farther south and behind this convection. This has yielded a plume of modest MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg that should shift across western AL this evening. Low-level to deep-layer shear is conducive to a few supercells developing and being maintained within this regime. A tornadic supercell or two is possible before convection probably weakens later in the evening as instability wanes deeper into AL. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34778620 33388682 32918729 32528790 32478836 32488907 32818930 34458838 34988812 35378733 35358647 34778620 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates STATUS FOR WATCH 0642 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 642 TORNADO AL MS 182305Z - 190300Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 642 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Alabama Eastern Mississippi * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 900 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A few supercells are forecast to continue to mature and move east-northeast within a moist and strongly sheared environment across the Watch area. Gradual destabilization will occur immediately ahead of the storm activity this evening. The primary threats accompanying the stronger storms will be damaging gusts and the possibility for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Huntsville AL to 70 miles south southwest of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Smith Read more

MD 2261 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA Mesoscale Discussion 2261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Areas affected...Southern Minnesota Concerning...Blizzard Valid 182023Z - 190030Z SUMMARY...Patchy blizzard conditions are spreading southeast into south-central Minnesota and may persist for several hours. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations from across south-central MN have begun to report visibility reductions of 1/2 to 1/4 mile under a swath of light snowfall. Traffic and snow plow cameras show areas of substantial visibility reductions, estimated to be down to 1/10 mile at times. Widespread 40-60 mph wind gusts continue across the region and will support similar visibility reductions under any areas with even light snowfall rates. Recent high-res guidance suggests that winds may peak over the next hour before gradually diminishing through the evening hours; however, gusts between 30-45 mph will likely continue for the next several hours with a continuation of light snowfall within the mid-level TROWAL region of the maturing cyclone. As such, areas of transient blizzard conditions will likely continue through early/mid-evening. ..Moore.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 43519467 43739507 44069549 44599562 45079552 45289519 45349479 45279435 44449302 44159292 43889295 43639312 43509330 43429355 43409402 43519467 Read more

MD 2260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY Mesoscale Discussion 2260 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois and western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181644Z - 181845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A band of low-topped convection will proceed eastward through early afternoon and may result in sporadic wind damage across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois into western Kentucky. Watch issuance is not expected due to the overall limited thermodynamic environment. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KLSX shows a well-organized, but shallow, band of convection that has developed along a strong synoptic cold front. Latest HRRR/RAP forecast soundings are showing minimal MLCAPE (around 100 J/kg) that is confined to the lowest few kilometers where lapse rates near 700 mb are steep enough to allow for some convective augmentation of precipitation along the front. Despite the very poor thermodynamic environment, the KLSX VWP depicts 40-50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer, which may mix to the surface within the convective band. Although lightning production will likely be minimal, sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible with this line (gusts up to 40-45 knots have already been observed associated with the front). The limited thermodynamic environment is not forecast to substantially improve through the afternoon, so watch issuance is not expected with this activity. ..Moore/Gleason.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38368822 37058867 36568923 36488994 36529068 36659115 36869160 37139182 37339185 38119111 39129056 39879034 40098991 39938921 39648855 39258817 38368822 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 2259 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WEST AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA Mesoscale Discussion 2259 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025 Areas affected...The Eastern Dakotas into west and northwest Minnesota Concerning...Blizzard Valid 181509Z - 182015Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are expected to continue across parts of the eastern Dakotas and into parts of west/northwest MN through early/mid afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and web cams from southeast SD northward through the Red River Valley of the north show widespread visibility reductions to 1/4 mile or less with some areas experiencing white out conditions - especially across northeast ND into northwest MN where moderate to heavy snowfall rates are contributing to the visibility reductions under a developing snow band. Heading through the afternoon, the strongest push of low-level cold advection should migrate from the eastern Dakotas into southern MN/northern IA. Although the heaviest snowfall will likely shift eastward into northern MN through the day, light snow and persistent strong northerly winds will continue to support blizzard conditions through the Red River Valley through at least mid-afternoon and possibly until around 00z. Further south/southeast, the antecedent snow pack is not as widespread compared to locations further north, but a combination of light to moderate snowfall and intense surface winds (gusting between 40-50 mph) will likely contribute to areas of blizzard conditions into west/southwest MN. ..Moore.. 12/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45379439 44949441 44709454 44459491 44249551 44169600 44199677 44309723 44579749 45039785 45599814 45949836 46839890 48129916 48699904 48959878 49069819 49059675 49029527 48549520 47799538 47109550 46189521 45379439 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 17 18:00:01 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 17 02:47:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 15 10:34:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 15 01:54:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2258 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR FAR SOUTHEAST IA...CENTRAL IL...AMD WEST-CENTRAL IN Mesoscale Discussion 2258 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025 Areas affected...far southeast IA...central IL...amd west-central IN Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 131543Z - 131945Z SUMMARY...A band of moderate to heavy snow with bursts of rates around 1 inch per hour expected through around 20Z. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar data and surface observations depict a swath of moderate to locally heavy snow spreading eastward across eastern IA, central IL, and western IN. As strengthening DCVA preceding an embedded midlevel perturbation (evident in water-vapor imagery) continues spreading eastward into IL over the next couple hours, an uptick in the coverage of heavy snowfall rates can be expected. This increase should generally focus in an east/west corridor extending from southeast IA across central IL into west-central IN through around 20Z -- when the aforementioned lift overspreads a cold, deeply saturated profile with a favorable isothermal layer below 700 mb for aggregation. Snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour are expected beneath the core of the heaviest banding, with bursts of locally higher rates possible. ..Weinman.. 12/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 39398761 39728927 40099058 40519152 40969185 41349183 41669154 41669096 41338964 40968807 40738664 40418605 39778602 39338653 39398761 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 12 02:05:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 12 02:05:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 11 05:39:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2257 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEW YORK Mesoscale Discussion 2257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0807 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 101407Z - 101800Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to persist into the late morning and perhaps early afternoon hours. A few localized instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates may occur. DISCUSSION...A primary band of moderate to heavy snow has become established over much of New York as a surface low approaches from the Great Lakes, resulting in increased low-level WAA over the Hudson Valley. At the terminus of the WAA resides strong 925-850 mb convergence, which may be providing enhanced lift within a saturated, sub-freezing troposphere. As such, efficient dendritic growth should result in widespread moderate to occasionally heavy snow through the morning hours, perhaps extending into early afternoon, before the aforementioned WAA axis shifts east, away from the Hudson Valley. Localized instances of 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are possible. ..Squitieri.. 12/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 42817652 43447630 43697517 43627428 43527373 43437354 43127321 42597346 42327392 42237492 42327562 42527613 42767646 42817652 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 10 09:17:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2256 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN Mesoscale Discussion 2256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025 Areas affected...eastern Minnesota...western/central Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 100112Z - 100415Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow to continue through the evening with occasional 1"/hr rates. DISCUSSION...Heavy to moderate snow continues to be reported across portions of eastern MN into central WI as of 01z. The surface low continues to shift south and eastward, currently located over southern MN. 750-850 mb frontogenesis is maximized across far eastern MN into portions of central WI. 00z sounding from MPX shows a nearly saturated dendritic growth zone. Moist profiles and continued frontal support will continue to bring potential for heavy bands with 1"/hr rates over the next few hours. As the surface low continues to shift south and east, rates will decrease through the late evening/overnight. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45168976 45809185 45779315 44449368 44309332 43519148 43189063 42818973 43488872 44668880 45168976 Read more

MD 2255 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA Mesoscale Discussion 2255 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern into central Minnesota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 091756Z - 092300Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow is expected to begin over the next few hours. 1 inch/hour snowfall rates are possible. DISCUSSION...A surface-850 mb low is beginning to intensify while shifting southeastward across ND, which is resulting in increased low-level warm-air/moisture advection within a sub-freezing troposphere over northern to central MN. A primary band of at least light to moderate snow is already in place along the ND/MN border, and this band is expected to intensify with increased 850-700 mb frontogenesis over central MN over the next several hours. Increased saturation of the dendritic growth zone should support widespread moderate snowfall rates, but at least a few instances of heavy snow are possible, including snowfall rates locally exceeding 1 inch/hour. ..Squitieri.. 12/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47919705 48009693 48069675 48079663 48049635 47949602 47629508 47199421 46929378 46239305 45759294 45389305 45229348 45199421 45259516 45429561 45799613 47029686 47419699 47719709 47919705 Read more