Sub-Prime Goals
@spgoals7.bsky.social
Football fan writing on finance in football/sport. Have worked in banking, venture capital and most recently as a CFO.
Substack: https://spgoals.substack.com
Substack: https://spgoals.substack.com
🔴⚪ #FCBayern are moving up the revenue league 🔴⚪
'24/25 revenue was €978.3mn. But excluding player sales it grew 15% to €877mn.
Winning the Bundesliga and Club World Cup prize money were major drivers alongside merchandise and sponsorships.
EBITDA grew 11% also due to minor wage bill decrease.
'24/25 revenue was €978.3mn. But excluding player sales it grew 15% to €877mn.
Winning the Bundesliga and Club World Cup prize money were major drivers alongside merchandise and sponsorships.
EBITDA grew 11% also due to minor wage bill decrease.
November 3, 2025 at 4:30 PM
🔴⚪ #FCBayern are moving up the revenue league 🔴⚪
'24/25 revenue was €978.3mn. But excluding player sales it grew 15% to €877mn.
Winning the Bundesliga and Club World Cup prize money were major drivers alongside merchandise and sponsorships.
EBITDA grew 11% also due to minor wage bill decrease.
'24/25 revenue was €978.3mn. But excluding player sales it grew 15% to €877mn.
Winning the Bundesliga and Club World Cup prize money were major drivers alongside merchandise and sponsorships.
EBITDA grew 11% also due to minor wage bill decrease.
#PSG 24/25 revenue of €837mn - probably keeps them Top 3 in the Football Club revenue league.
But that's only €70mn more than #MUFC and has the #UCL win and some CWC money in (c.€60mn+ boost).
Meaning other rev was down, some from Ligue 1 TV money but not spectacular.
www.psg.fr/content/le-p...
But that's only €70mn more than #MUFC and has the #UCL win and some CWC money in (c.€60mn+ boost).
Meaning other rev was down, some from Ligue 1 TV money but not spectacular.
www.psg.fr/content/le-p...
October 29, 2025 at 8:00 PM
#PSG 24/25 revenue of €837mn - probably keeps them Top 3 in the Football Club revenue league.
But that's only €70mn more than #MUFC and has the #UCL win and some CWC money in (c.€60mn+ boost).
Meaning other rev was down, some from Ligue 1 TV money but not spectacular.
www.psg.fr/content/le-p...
But that's only €70mn more than #MUFC and has the #UCL win and some CWC money in (c.€60mn+ boost).
Meaning other rev was down, some from Ligue 1 TV money but not spectacular.
www.psg.fr/content/le-p...
INEOS’ cuts means #MUFC can cover near term transfer debts.
£80mn non-transfer receivables increase gives ability to spend on players going forward.
Risks aplenty, Men’s first team needs to improve to realise this planning.
If it doesn’t work it strengthens INEOS’ hand.
Full report: bit.ly/47UEmqy
£80mn non-transfer receivables increase gives ability to spend on players going forward.
Risks aplenty, Men’s first team needs to improve to realise this planning.
If it doesn’t work it strengthens INEOS’ hand.
Full report: bit.ly/47UEmqy
September 22, 2025 at 6:18 AM
INEOS’ cuts means #MUFC can cover near term transfer debts.
£80mn non-transfer receivables increase gives ability to spend on players going forward.
Risks aplenty, Men’s first team needs to improve to realise this planning.
If it doesn’t work it strengthens INEOS’ hand.
Full report: bit.ly/47UEmqy
£80mn non-transfer receivables increase gives ability to spend on players going forward.
Risks aplenty, Men’s first team needs to improve to realise this planning.
If it doesn’t work it strengthens INEOS’ hand.
Full report: bit.ly/47UEmqy
#MUFC 4Q25 results FIRST TAKE: guidance in-line with my expectations, targeting a ‘25/26 Premier league finish of 6/7th, and will be guiding factor in any decision surrounding the first team coach.
Full report: bit.ly/42sY216
Full report: bit.ly/42sY216
September 17, 2025 at 12:27 PM
#MUFC 4Q25 results FIRST TAKE: guidance in-line with my expectations, targeting a ‘25/26 Premier league finish of 6/7th, and will be guiding factor in any decision surrounding the first team coach.
Full report: bit.ly/42sY216
Full report: bit.ly/42sY216
Chelsea's heady £300mn from player sales this summer. But they still don’t have a front-of-shirt sponsor and most players they could generate a meaningful profit from are now in their first team squad. #CFC hitting UEFA’s €5mn loss target in 2026/27 feels increasingly tricky.
Report: bit.ly/3JKfpUD
Report: bit.ly/3JKfpUD
September 4, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Chelsea's heady £300mn from player sales this summer. But they still don’t have a front-of-shirt sponsor and most players they could generate a meaningful profit from are now in their first team squad. #CFC hitting UEFA’s €5mn loss target in 2026/27 feels increasingly tricky.
Report: bit.ly/3JKfpUD
Report: bit.ly/3JKfpUD
Nottingham Forest continue to challenge the established elite. They’ve dug deep financially, and Elanga’s sales was probably crucial to complying UEFA’s financial regulations. They are showing ambition but continue to tread the financial tightrope for UEFA compliance.
Report: bit.ly/47oiGTy
Report: bit.ly/47oiGTy
September 2, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Nottingham Forest continue to challenge the established elite. They’ve dug deep financially, and Elanga’s sales was probably crucial to complying UEFA’s financial regulations. They are showing ambition but continue to tread the financial tightrope for UEFA compliance.
Report: bit.ly/47oiGTy
Report: bit.ly/47oiGTy
Arsenal’s £200mn Summer net spend was partly facilitated by allowing expensive players to leave for free and loans. They are as close as ever to UEFA’s 70% Squad Cost target. If trophies elude #AFC this season, Berta’s deal making will be tested so they can go again.
Report: bit.ly/3JKR9BM
Report: bit.ly/3JKR9BM
September 2, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Arsenal’s £200mn Summer net spend was partly facilitated by allowing expensive players to leave for free and loans. They are as close as ever to UEFA’s 70% Squad Cost target. If trophies elude #AFC this season, Berta’s deal making will be tested so they can go again.
Report: bit.ly/3JKR9BM
Report: bit.ly/3JKR9BM
#AVFC player sales should enable UEFA financial compliance for '25/26 (losses under €5mn) and register new signings for Europa League.
But a high squad cost ratio (c.87%) still needs work. More big sales likely needed to make up the shortfall.
Full report: bit.ly/45V0Wgh
But a high squad cost ratio (c.87%) still needs work. More big sales likely needed to make up the shortfall.
Full report: bit.ly/45V0Wgh
August 25, 2025 at 5:10 PM
#AVFC player sales should enable UEFA financial compliance for '25/26 (losses under €5mn) and register new signings for Europa League.
But a high squad cost ratio (c.87%) still needs work. More big sales likely needed to make up the shortfall.
Full report: bit.ly/45V0Wgh
But a high squad cost ratio (c.87%) still needs work. More big sales likely needed to make up the shortfall.
Full report: bit.ly/45V0Wgh
A New Old Trafford financing blueprint – unite the Club, Fans and the Community
bit.ly/47bp1BN
I see a world where the Club can fund a stadium and increase the no. of tickets for regular matchgoers, allow them to partially fund and guide stadium development and leverage lucrative Hospitality seats
bit.ly/47bp1BN
I see a world where the Club can fund a stadium and increase the no. of tickets for regular matchgoers, allow them to partially fund and guide stadium development and leverage lucrative Hospitality seats
August 12, 2025 at 12:07 PM
A New Old Trafford financing blueprint – unite the Club, Fans and the Community
bit.ly/47bp1BN
I see a world where the Club can fund a stadium and increase the no. of tickets for regular matchgoers, allow them to partially fund and guide stadium development and leverage lucrative Hospitality seats
bit.ly/47bp1BN
I see a world where the Club can fund a stadium and increase the no. of tickets for regular matchgoers, allow them to partially fund and guide stadium development and leverage lucrative Hospitality seats
Nkunku and Jackson have got to go, but clubs may just say no
bit.ly/4fwicwA
#CFC have freed up £55mn UCL List A headroom but need another £32.5mn to register new signings. Garnacho means they probably need £50n
Nkunku+Jackson is c.£43mn of that. But thereafter we may see some unhappy players.
bit.ly/4fwicwA
#CFC have freed up £55mn UCL List A headroom but need another £32.5mn to register new signings. Garnacho means they probably need £50n
Nkunku+Jackson is c.£43mn of that. But thereafter we may see some unhappy players.
August 8, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Nkunku and Jackson have got to go, but clubs may just say no
bit.ly/4fwicwA
#CFC have freed up £55mn UCL List A headroom but need another £32.5mn to register new signings. Garnacho means they probably need £50n
Nkunku+Jackson is c.£43mn of that. But thereafter we may see some unhappy players.
bit.ly/4fwicwA
#CFC have freed up £55mn UCL List A headroom but need another £32.5mn to register new signings. Garnacho means they probably need £50n
Nkunku+Jackson is c.£43mn of that. But thereafter we may see some unhappy players.
Chelsea’s talent house and Jim Fraser
Substack: bit.ly/44jIdv3
• Fraser potentially joining #MUFC academy - helped build #CFC academy with Neil Bath
• Specialises in dom and intl scouting & development
• Since '05 CFC academy generated c.£700mn fees
• Forward thinking in evolving academy operations
Substack: bit.ly/44jIdv3
• Fraser potentially joining #MUFC academy - helped build #CFC academy with Neil Bath
• Specialises in dom and intl scouting & development
• Since '05 CFC academy generated c.£700mn fees
• Forward thinking in evolving academy operations
June 19, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Chelsea’s talent house and Jim Fraser
Substack: bit.ly/44jIdv3
• Fraser potentially joining #MUFC academy - helped build #CFC academy with Neil Bath
• Specialises in dom and intl scouting & development
• Since '05 CFC academy generated c.£700mn fees
• Forward thinking in evolving academy operations
Substack: bit.ly/44jIdv3
• Fraser potentially joining #MUFC academy - helped build #CFC academy with Neil Bath
• Specialises in dom and intl scouting & development
• Since '05 CFC academy generated c.£700mn fees
• Forward thinking in evolving academy operations
Full Omar Berrada interview in United We Stand is worth and #MUFC fans' time. Read it to make up your own mind on him. Can subscribe here: uwsonline.com/subscribe.php
Interesting stuff on Amorim, financial model & direction from here
Reminder chart on EBITDA (profit) margin and free cash flow below
Interesting stuff on Amorim, financial model & direction from here
Reminder chart on EBITDA (profit) margin and free cash flow below
June 17, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Full Omar Berrada interview in United We Stand is worth and #MUFC fans' time. Read it to make up your own mind on him. Can subscribe here: uwsonline.com/subscribe.php
Interesting stuff on Amorim, financial model & direction from here
Reminder chart on EBITDA (profit) margin and free cash flow below
Interesting stuff on Amorim, financial model & direction from here
Reminder chart on EBITDA (profit) margin and free cash flow below
Appreciate the kind words, Nick. It’s definitely tough at the moment and agree, not easy to see many of the things happening at the moment. Reposting the charts for you here!
March 17, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Appreciate the kind words, Nick. It’s definitely tough at the moment and agree, not easy to see many of the things happening at the moment. Reposting the charts for you here!
🏟️🏦📉📈INEOS own MUFC shares:
United now have a further vehicle for to fund a new stadium, on better than market terms.
INEOS owned shares give more flexibility for future full ownership options without harming MUFC.
Working capital buffer less likely given £282mn losses in 4 years.
United now have a further vehicle for to fund a new stadium, on better than market terms.
INEOS owned shares give more flexibility for future full ownership options without harming MUFC.
Working capital buffer less likely given £282mn losses in 4 years.
December 22, 2024 at 9:06 AM
🏟️🏦📉📈INEOS own MUFC shares:
United now have a further vehicle for to fund a new stadium, on better than market terms.
INEOS owned shares give more flexibility for future full ownership options without harming MUFC.
Working capital buffer less likely given £282mn losses in 4 years.
United now have a further vehicle for to fund a new stadium, on better than market terms.
INEOS owned shares give more flexibility for future full ownership options without harming MUFC.
Working capital buffer less likely given £282mn losses in 4 years.
A potentially distressing #MUFC story...
Years of mismanagement, SJR plugging cash gap, fans paying the price #StopExploitingLoyalty
W/o Jim’s $100mn by year end they’d be short on cash
So need to pull every lever but continued poor on pitch performance means they can't use sponsorships like before
Years of mismanagement, SJR plugging cash gap, fans paying the price #StopExploitingLoyalty
W/o Jim’s $100mn by year end they’d be short on cash
So need to pull every lever but continued poor on pitch performance means they can't use sponsorships like before
December 1, 2024 at 7:04 PM
A potentially distressing #MUFC story...
Years of mismanagement, SJR plugging cash gap, fans paying the price #StopExploitingLoyalty
W/o Jim’s $100mn by year end they’d be short on cash
So need to pull every lever but continued poor on pitch performance means they can't use sponsorships like before
Years of mismanagement, SJR plugging cash gap, fans paying the price #StopExploitingLoyalty
W/o Jim’s $100mn by year end they’d be short on cash
So need to pull every lever but continued poor on pitch performance means they can't use sponsorships like before
3 takeaways from #MUFC game
1. Still phase 1 of squad overhaul, any coach still dealing with that. There will be pain before gain.
2. Amorim is an out and out football person, media duties comment is Mourinho-esque. On the football leadership to back him on it.
3. Not a fan of Ed Sheeran
1. Still phase 1 of squad overhaul, any coach still dealing with that. There will be pain before gain.
2. Amorim is an out and out football person, media duties comment is Mourinho-esque. On the football leadership to back him on it.
3. Not a fan of Ed Sheeran
November 24, 2024 at 9:53 PM
3 takeaways from #MUFC game
1. Still phase 1 of squad overhaul, any coach still dealing with that. There will be pain before gain.
2. Amorim is an out and out football person, media duties comment is Mourinho-esque. On the football leadership to back him on it.
3. Not a fan of Ed Sheeran
1. Still phase 1 of squad overhaul, any coach still dealing with that. There will be pain before gain.
2. Amorim is an out and out football person, media duties comment is Mourinho-esque. On the football leadership to back him on it.
3. Not a fan of Ed Sheeran
Revenues...
More tickets, Food & Beverage, better Hospitality and sponsorships. 19k more seats could mean c.£25mn matchday revs. Emirates deal is £50mn/yr until 2028 and incl. Shirt & Stadium rights. If it increases by £10mn/ yr (like before) only another £4mn rev/yr is needed cover interest costs.
More tickets, Food & Beverage, better Hospitality and sponsorships. 19k more seats could mean c.£25mn matchday revs. Emirates deal is £50mn/yr until 2028 and incl. Shirt & Stadium rights. If it increases by £10mn/ yr (like before) only another £4mn rev/yr is needed cover interest costs.
November 18, 2024 at 9:45 PM
Revenues...
More tickets, Food & Beverage, better Hospitality and sponsorships. 19k more seats could mean c.£25mn matchday revs. Emirates deal is £50mn/yr until 2028 and incl. Shirt & Stadium rights. If it increases by £10mn/ yr (like before) only another £4mn rev/yr is needed cover interest costs.
More tickets, Food & Beverage, better Hospitality and sponsorships. 19k more seats could mean c.£25mn matchday revs. Emirates deal is £50mn/yr until 2028 and incl. Shirt & Stadium rights. If it increases by £10mn/ yr (like before) only another £4mn rev/yr is needed cover interest costs.
PSR/FSR…
Costs to build or develop stadiums don't go into P&L compliance but if liabilities (debts) are greater than assets then UEFA need to see an improving balance sheet position annually. This means more profit is needed - for #Arsenal not to be inhibited they need £40mn+ /yr from the expansion.
Costs to build or develop stadiums don't go into P&L compliance but if liabilities (debts) are greater than assets then UEFA need to see an improving balance sheet position annually. This means more profit is needed - for #Arsenal not to be inhibited they need £40mn+ /yr from the expansion.
November 18, 2024 at 9:45 PM
PSR/FSR…
Costs to build or develop stadiums don't go into P&L compliance but if liabilities (debts) are greater than assets then UEFA need to see an improving balance sheet position annually. This means more profit is needed - for #Arsenal not to be inhibited they need £40mn+ /yr from the expansion.
Costs to build or develop stadiums don't go into P&L compliance but if liabilities (debts) are greater than assets then UEFA need to see an improving balance sheet position annually. This means more profit is needed - for #Arsenal not to be inhibited they need £40mn+ /yr from the expansion.
What might it cost?
“Cost per seat” could be up to £20k (Spurs, Everton and #MUFC yardsticks) implying total costs of £386mn. Arsenal financials are sound and the Kroenke’s experience in stadium development could see better interest rates for debt funding (10% interest rate = £38.6mn interest cost)
“Cost per seat” could be up to £20k (Spurs, Everton and #MUFC yardsticks) implying total costs of £386mn. Arsenal financials are sound and the Kroenke’s experience in stadium development could see better interest rates for debt funding (10% interest rate = £38.6mn interest cost)
November 18, 2024 at 9:45 PM
What might it cost?
“Cost per seat” could be up to £20k (Spurs, Everton and #MUFC yardsticks) implying total costs of £386mn. Arsenal financials are sound and the Kroenke’s experience in stadium development could see better interest rates for debt funding (10% interest rate = £38.6mn interest cost)
“Cost per seat” could be up to £20k (Spurs, Everton and #MUFC yardsticks) implying total costs of £386mn. Arsenal financials are sound and the Kroenke’s experience in stadium development could see better interest rates for debt funding (10% interest rate = £38.6mn interest cost)
Matchday: Only rev stream with growth accelerate over the last 5 years (+3% pa 19-24 vs. +5% 2014-19), primarily thanks to Spurs’ nearly tripling match day revenue due to their new stadium as well as more on-pitch success for all teams (incl. Europe) meaning more home matches to sell tickets for.
November 17, 2024 at 9:30 PM
Matchday: Only rev stream with growth accelerate over the last 5 years (+3% pa 19-24 vs. +5% 2014-19), primarily thanks to Spurs’ nearly tripling match day revenue due to their new stadium as well as more on-pitch success for all teams (incl. Europe) meaning more home matches to sell tickets for.
Commercial: somewhat a derivative of tv deals (more eyeballs, the more attractive sponsoring a club becomes) commercial has been the biggest driver of growth in the last 5 years but growth there is also slowing (+8% pa 19-24 vs. +11% 2014-19).
November 17, 2024 at 9:30 PM
Commercial: somewhat a derivative of tv deals (more eyeballs, the more attractive sponsoring a club becomes) commercial has been the biggest driver of growth in the last 5 years but growth there is also slowing (+8% pa 19-24 vs. +11% 2014-19).
Broadcasting revenue: #EPL TV deals grew +13% pa 2007 to 2019. The last domestic deal saw rev/yr grow just +1% pa. International revs arguably still has some room to grow but with limitations due to international consumer pricing models (AUS/ US).
November 17, 2024 at 9:30 PM
Broadcasting revenue: #EPL TV deals grew +13% pa 2007 to 2019. The last domestic deal saw rev/yr grow just +1% pa. International revs arguably still has some room to grow but with limitations due to international consumer pricing models (AUS/ US).
For the 9 ever present teams over the last decade, revs have nearly doubled from £2.2bn to £4.1bn (as of summer ’23). The boon was driven by TV deals (Broadcasting revs £1.8bn vs. £1bn) and commercial success (£1.6bn vs. £730mn). But that growth has slowed from 10% pa to 4% pa over the last decade.
November 17, 2024 at 9:30 PM
For the 9 ever present teams over the last decade, revs have nearly doubled from £2.2bn to £4.1bn (as of summer ’23). The boon was driven by TV deals (Broadcasting revs £1.8bn vs. £1bn) and commercial success (£1.6bn vs. £730mn). But that growth has slowed from 10% pa to 4% pa over the last decade.