Spruce Moose
@sprucemoosecaboose.bsky.social
Remember that Odd Lots guest that said they would consider it over when 3 of the mag7 closed below their 200 day? MSFT AVGO META.
February 4, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Remember that Odd Lots guest that said they would consider it over when 3 of the mag7 closed below their 200 day? MSFT AVGO META.
Haven't we thought that every January for the last 3 years? Non shelter inflation might be hot with annual contract repricing including tariffs this year.
January 23, 2026 at 1:53 PM
Haven't we thought that every January for the last 3 years? Non shelter inflation might be hot with annual contract repricing including tariffs this year.
I think that is one of the risks. I whole bunch of new investors are piling in to gold and silver thinking it is safe, and it is when the "safe" stuff sells off that causes panic.
January 13, 2026 at 4:33 PM
I think that is one of the risks. I whole bunch of new investors are piling in to gold and silver thinking it is safe, and it is when the "safe" stuff sells off that causes panic.
It's the credible threat of retribution that silences complaints.
January 10, 2026 at 3:04 AM
It's the credible threat of retribution that silences complaints.
That's probably the initial reaction. But nobody knows how they'll disperse the money they collected, and nobody knows what tariffs they'll impose by other means.
January 8, 2026 at 7:26 PM
That's probably the initial reaction. But nobody knows how they'll disperse the money they collected, and nobody knows what tariffs they'll impose by other means.
Tariff ruling, and then scrabbling to put tariffs back on by other means.
January 7, 2026 at 8:30 PM
Tariff ruling, and then scrabbling to put tariffs back on by other means.
Is there any impact to VIX settling the week after SPX instead of before?
December 22, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Is there any impact to VIX settling the week after SPX instead of before?
The point is to run it into the ground. If she knew SOH CAH TOA it would be disqualifying. She made her money from the squared circle for Christ sake.
December 20, 2025 at 5:41 PM
The point is to run it into the ground. If she knew SOH CAH TOA it would be disqualifying. She made her money from the squared circle for Christ sake.
It seems like the positive seasonal flows are being used to rotate or get out.
December 18, 2025 at 7:23 PM
It seems like the positive seasonal flows are being used to rotate or get out.
They missed last time, but if memory serves, they preannounced a big partnership with OpenAI and the stock popped twice from that. Maybe someone else comes to the rescue.
December 11, 2025 at 3:17 PM
They missed last time, but if memory serves, they preannounced a big partnership with OpenAI and the stock popped twice from that. Maybe someone else comes to the rescue.
This has to be in anticipation of the Tariffs getting struck down, no?
December 4, 2025 at 9:23 PM
This has to be in anticipation of the Tariffs getting struck down, no?
MSFT and AMZN are 1 bad day from the 200 day MA. Within 2%. Add those 2 to Meta and you'd have 3 of the mag7
November 21, 2025 at 3:12 PM
MSFT and AMZN are 1 bad day from the 200 day MA. Within 2%. Add those 2 to Meta and you'd have 3 of the mag7
Does that mean we can have an orderly selloff for longer? Comparing July 24 and Feb 25. July 24 we bounced right back once things broke. In Feb/Mar 25 we went down 10% and just paused before going lower.
November 20, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Does that mean we can have an orderly selloff for longer? Comparing July 24 and Feb 25. July 24 we bounced right back once things broke. In Feb/Mar 25 we went down 10% and just paused before going lower.
On the other hand. When NVDA reported earnings in Feb spy was 3.5% off the highs. Opened up 0.5% and finished -1.5%. We then went on to sell off another 16%.
November 20, 2025 at 6:08 PM
On the other hand. When NVDA reported earnings in Feb spy was 3.5% off the highs. Opened up 0.5% and finished -1.5%. We then went on to sell off another 16%.
The market is worried about how much companies are spending on AI. NVDA came out yesterday and said "Hey everybody, look how much companies are spending on AI!"
November 20, 2025 at 4:52 PM
The market is worried about how much companies are spending on AI. NVDA came out yesterday and said "Hey everybody, look how much companies are spending on AI!"
Its probably good enough, although it didn't save the day on 2/26. What is funny to me is people are worried that AI companies are overbuilding. This is confirmation that they are spending more than we thought, and at higher margins for NVDA.
November 19, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Its probably good enough, although it didn't save the day on 2/26. What is funny to me is people are worried that AI companies are overbuilding. This is confirmation that they are spending more than we thought, and at higher margins for NVDA.
Oh good. For a minute I thought it was immigration enforcement and the economy. Good thing we have only the weather to blame.
November 18, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Oh good. For a minute I thought it was immigration enforcement and the economy. Good thing we have only the weather to blame.
That's what I thought in April. But now there is less tacoing that can be done, and the same pumps won't be as effective.
Plus I don't think rate cuts will do much to help the long end.
Plus I don't think rate cuts will do much to help the long end.
November 17, 2025 at 7:07 PM
That's what I thought in April. But now there is less tacoing that can be done, and the same pumps won't be as effective.
Plus I don't think rate cuts will do much to help the long end.
Plus I don't think rate cuts will do much to help the long end.
This feels like jan feb action. Next wed is nvda earnings and vixpiration. Dispersion should hold till then like in Feb.
November 11, 2025 at 6:23 PM
This feels like jan feb action. Next wed is nvda earnings and vixpiration. Dispersion should hold till then like in Feb.
It seems the only way the market can durably decline is with a subdued vix. When vix spikes we recover days later.
November 6, 2025 at 6:04 PM
It seems the only way the market can durably decline is with a subdued vix. When vix spikes we recover days later.
The dispersion trade is supercharged during the opex window with megatech earnings. Just like Feb.
October 30, 2025 at 2:01 PM
The dispersion trade is supercharged during the opex window with megatech earnings. Just like Feb.
If we escalate with Venezuela in those "two weeks" he'll be giving China another justification to play hardball.
October 17, 2025 at 1:20 PM
If we escalate with Venezuela in those "two weeks" he'll be giving China another justification to play hardball.