StableBread
@stablebread.bsky.social
Learn how to analyze, value, and manage your stock portfolio from the teachings of successful value investors.
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StableBread
@stablebread.bsky.social
· Jul 10
Beating the market consistently is incredibly difficult, even for the most successful investors.
That's why I compiled a list of 50 investors who have proven track records of beating the SP500TR, net of fees.
Here's the scatterplot visual and table with source data: stablebread.com/investors/
That's why I compiled a list of 50 investors who have proven track records of beating the SP500TR, net of fees.
Here's the scatterplot visual and table with source data: stablebread.com/investors/
When value investing succeeds, it attracts everyone. Too many value investors eliminate the opportunities. People give up. Then it works again.
September 16, 2025 at 3:57 PM
When value investing succeeds, it attracts everyone. Too many value investors eliminate the opportunities. People give up. Then it works again.
"Everybody was sure that the internet would change the world. And it did. And yet the internet and e-commerce stocks that were the beneficiaries of that thinking in the TMT bubble of the late 90s — the vast majority are now worthless."
— Howard Marks, CNBC (2024)
— Howard Marks, CNBC (2024)
September 15, 2025 at 8:56 PM
"Everybody was sure that the internet would change the world. And it did. And yet the internet and e-commerce stocks that were the beneficiaries of that thinking in the TMT bubble of the late 90s — the vast majority are now worthless."
— Howard Marks, CNBC (2024)
— Howard Marks, CNBC (2024)
There are three structural problems that make banks fundamentally different from normal businesses:
1️⃣ High leverage that magnifies risk.
2️⃣ Inadequate returns despite that risk.
3️⃣ Systemic risk that can destroy even well-managed institutions.
1️⃣ High leverage that magnifies risk.
2️⃣ Inadequate returns despite that risk.
3️⃣ Systemic risk that can destroy even well-managed institutions.
September 15, 2025 at 1:03 PM
There are three structural problems that make banks fundamentally different from normal businesses:
1️⃣ High leverage that magnifies risk.
2️⃣ Inadequate returns despite that risk.
3️⃣ Systemic risk that can destroy even well-managed institutions.
1️⃣ High leverage that magnifies risk.
2️⃣ Inadequate returns despite that risk.
3️⃣ Systemic risk that can destroy even well-managed institutions.
Banks typically have a very small amount of equity to support their balance sheet.
Equity is important because it's the only cushion protecting depositors and creditors when loans go bad.
Equity is important because it's the only cushion protecting depositors and creditors when loans go bad.
September 12, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Banks typically have a very small amount of equity to support their balance sheet.
Equity is important because it's the only cushion protecting depositors and creditors when loans go bad.
Equity is important because it's the only cushion protecting depositors and creditors when loans go bad.
Published a comprehensive post yesterday on the 10 lessons @markmahaney shares when it comes to picking winning internet stocks.
Includes several real-world examples including $AMZN, $NFLX, $GOOGL, $SNAP, $SPOT, and others!
Includes several real-world examples including $AMZN, $NFLX, $GOOGL, $SNAP, $SPOT, and others!
September 11, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Published a comprehensive post yesterday on the 10 lessons @markmahaney shares when it comes to picking winning internet stocks.
Includes several real-world examples including $AMZN, $NFLX, $GOOGL, $SNAP, $SPOT, and others!
Includes several real-world examples including $AMZN, $NFLX, $GOOGL, $SNAP, $SPOT, and others!
Banks essentially do three things: take deposits, make loans, and process payments. Each function now faces disruption:
September 11, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Banks essentially do three things: take deposits, make loans, and process payments. Each function now faces disruption:
🧵 Anna Yartseva analyzed 464 companies that delivered at least 10-fold returns between 2009 and 2024.
Her findings show that earnings growth, dividends, buybacks, debt, R&D spending, and industry, among other factors, were statistically irrelevant.
Here's what actually mattered.
Her findings show that earnings growth, dividends, buybacks, debt, R&D spending, and industry, among other factors, were statistically irrelevant.
Here's what actually mattered.
September 10, 2025 at 12:57 PM
🧵 Anna Yartseva analyzed 464 companies that delivered at least 10-fold returns between 2009 and 2024.
Her findings show that earnings growth, dividends, buybacks, debt, R&D spending, and industry, among other factors, were statistically irrelevant.
Here's what actually mattered.
Her findings show that earnings growth, dividends, buybacks, debt, R&D spending, and industry, among other factors, were statistically irrelevant.
Here's what actually mattered.
🧵 Understanding why management pursues acquisitions helps identify problems in their thinking and decision-making process.
Companies typically cite two primary reasons, though the actual motivations often differ from stated goals.
Companies typically cite two primary reasons, though the actual motivations often differ from stated goals.
September 9, 2025 at 3:59 PM
🧵 Understanding why management pursues acquisitions helps identify problems in their thinking and decision-making process.
Companies typically cite two primary reasons, though the actual motivations often differ from stated goals.
Companies typically cite two primary reasons, though the actual motivations often differ from stated goals.
The DCF's strengths and weaknesses explain why it's both the most respected and the most criticized valuation method.
Here's what makes it powerful, and what can lead you astray. 👇
Here's what makes it powerful, and what can lead you astray. 👇
September 8, 2025 at 12:56 PM
The DCF's strengths and weaknesses explain why it's both the most respected and the most criticized valuation method.
Here's what makes it powerful, and what can lead you astray. 👇
Here's what makes it powerful, and what can lead you astray. 👇
Peter Lynch, in "One Up On Wall Street," dedicates an entire chapter to discussing which types of stocks to avoid: 👇
September 5, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Peter Lynch, in "One Up On Wall Street," dedicates an entire chapter to discussing which types of stocks to avoid: 👇
Many management teams see M&A as a guaranteed path to business expansion and increased profits.
Yet poorly executed M&A has proven to be one of the fastest ways companies destroy shareholder value.
Here are the seven specific criteria that determine whether acquisitions will succeed or fail. 🧵
Yet poorly executed M&A has proven to be one of the fastest ways companies destroy shareholder value.
Here are the seven specific criteria that determine whether acquisitions will succeed or fail. 🧵
September 4, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Many management teams see M&A as a guaranteed path to business expansion and increased profits.
Yet poorly executed M&A has proven to be one of the fastest ways companies destroy shareholder value.
Here are the seven specific criteria that determine whether acquisitions will succeed or fail. 🧵
Yet poorly executed M&A has proven to be one of the fastest ways companies destroy shareholder value.
Here are the seven specific criteria that determine whether acquisitions will succeed or fail. 🧵
Banks delivered 262% returns over 15 years.
Boring utility stocks with regulated monopolies returned 387%.
The S&P 500 nearly tripled banks at 690%.
High leverage. Inadequate returns. Systemic risk. Why would anyone own bank stocks?
Boring utility stocks with regulated monopolies returned 387%.
The S&P 500 nearly tripled banks at 690%.
High leverage. Inadequate returns. Systemic risk. Why would anyone own bank stocks?
September 3, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Banks delivered 262% returns over 15 years.
Boring utility stocks with regulated monopolies returned 387%.
The S&P 500 nearly tripled banks at 690%.
High leverage. Inadequate returns. Systemic risk. Why would anyone own bank stocks?
Boring utility stocks with regulated monopolies returned 387%.
The S&P 500 nearly tripled banks at 690%.
High leverage. Inadequate returns. Systemic risk. Why would anyone own bank stocks?
🧵 Companies fall into three distinct categories based on how much they spend on acquisitions.
Look at the "Acquisitions" line in the cash flow statement and divide it by cash flow from operations.
This ratio shows how much operating cash goes to buying companies.
Look at the "Acquisitions" line in the cash flow statement and divide it by cash flow from operations.
This ratio shows how much operating cash goes to buying companies.
September 1, 2025 at 1:00 PM
🧵 Companies fall into three distinct categories based on how much they spend on acquisitions.
Look at the "Acquisitions" line in the cash flow statement and divide it by cash flow from operations.
This ratio shows how much operating cash goes to buying companies.
Look at the "Acquisitions" line in the cash flow statement and divide it by cash flow from operations.
This ratio shows how much operating cash goes to buying companies.
Peter Lynch divided "One Up On Wall Street" into three main sections.
At the end of each section, he summarized his key takeaways for investors. These are provided below: 👇
At the end of each section, he summarized his key takeaways for investors. These are provided below: 👇
August 29, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Peter Lynch divided "One Up On Wall Street" into three main sections.
At the end of each section, he summarized his key takeaways for investors. These are provided below: 👇
At the end of each section, he summarized his key takeaways for investors. These are provided below: 👇
Traditional stock screening misses opportunities.
An EBIT margin > 0% would have excluded loss-making cyclicals like $SONY in 2012.
An EV/EBIT < 10x would have eliminated $AMZN, undervalued despite high multiples.
In "Global Outperformers," Eyesan presents "value chain investing" as his solution.
An EBIT margin > 0% would have excluded loss-making cyclicals like $SONY in 2012.
An EV/EBIT < 10x would have eliminated $AMZN, undervalued despite high multiples.
In "Global Outperformers," Eyesan presents "value chain investing" as his solution.
August 28, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Traditional stock screening misses opportunities.
An EBIT margin > 0% would have excluded loss-making cyclicals like $SONY in 2012.
An EV/EBIT < 10x would have eliminated $AMZN, undervalued despite high multiples.
In "Global Outperformers," Eyesan presents "value chain investing" as his solution.
An EBIT margin > 0% would have excluded loss-making cyclicals like $SONY in 2012.
An EV/EBIT < 10x would have eliminated $AMZN, undervalued despite high multiples.
In "Global Outperformers," Eyesan presents "value chain investing" as his solution.
Published a guide yesterday on how to assess whether management's acquisition strategy creates or destroys shareholder value.
August 28, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Published a guide yesterday on how to assess whether management's acquisition strategy creates or destroys shareholder value.
Warren Buffett warns against using margin to buy stocks.
"There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period," he wrote in 2017.
But Yuval Taylor from @P123Finance has used margin safely for years, generating 41% CAGR since 2016.
Here's his system: 🧵
"There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period," he wrote in 2017.
But Yuval Taylor from @P123Finance has used margin safely for years, generating 41% CAGR since 2016.
Here's his system: 🧵
August 27, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Warren Buffett warns against using margin to buy stocks.
"There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period," he wrote in 2017.
But Yuval Taylor from @P123Finance has used margin safely for years, generating 41% CAGR since 2016.
Here's his system: 🧵
"There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period," he wrote in 2017.
But Yuval Taylor from @P123Finance has used margin safely for years, generating 41% CAGR since 2016.
Here's his system: 🧵
In his 2023 book "Global Outperformers," @dede_eyesan studied 446 companies that returned over 1,000% from 2012 to 2022.
What I found most valuable weren't his findings on 10-bagger characteristics, but the 10 lessons he shares on achieving global outperformance. 🧵
What I found most valuable weren't his findings on 10-bagger characteristics, but the 10 lessons he shares on achieving global outperformance. 🧵
August 26, 2025 at 12:58 PM
In his 2023 book "Global Outperformers," @dede_eyesan studied 446 companies that returned over 1,000% from 2012 to 2022.
What I found most valuable weren't his findings on 10-bagger characteristics, but the 10 lessons he shares on achieving global outperformance. 🧵
What I found most valuable weren't his findings on 10-bagger characteristics, but the 10 lessons he shares on achieving global outperformance. 🧵
Social proof bias happens when you follow the crowd into a stock, thinking others must know something you don't.
Just because many investors are buying doesn't mean they're right.
Popular stocks (like on this platform) can be overvalued--do your own research instead of copying others' trades!
Just because many investors are buying doesn't mean they're right.
Popular stocks (like on this platform) can be overvalued--do your own research instead of copying others' trades!
August 25, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Social proof bias happens when you follow the crowd into a stock, thinking others must know something you don't.
Just because many investors are buying doesn't mean they're right.
Popular stocks (like on this platform) can be overvalued--do your own research instead of copying others' trades!
Just because many investors are buying doesn't mean they're right.
Popular stocks (like on this platform) can be overvalued--do your own research instead of copying others' trades!
Here's something to watch out for when looking at reported EPS numbers.
When a company buys back its shares, it reduces the shares outstanding.
Fewer shares means higher EPS, even if net income stays flat. If a company earns $1B with 100M shares, the EPS is $10.
When a company buys back its shares, it reduces the shares outstanding.
Fewer shares means higher EPS, even if net income stays flat. If a company earns $1B with 100M shares, the EPS is $10.
August 25, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Here's something to watch out for when looking at reported EPS numbers.
When a company buys back its shares, it reduces the shares outstanding.
Fewer shares means higher EPS, even if net income stays flat. If a company earns $1B with 100M shares, the EPS is $10.
When a company buys back its shares, it reduces the shares outstanding.
Fewer shares means higher EPS, even if net income stays flat. If a company earns $1B with 100M shares, the EPS is $10.
While luck plays a role in any success story, it cannot sustain performance over many years.
This distinction matters when evaluating fund managers and your own investment returns.
This distinction matters when evaluating fund managers and your own investment returns.
August 22, 2025 at 1:03 PM
While luck plays a role in any success story, it cannot sustain performance over many years.
This distinction matters when evaluating fund managers and your own investment returns.
This distinction matters when evaluating fund managers and your own investment returns.
Yesterday, we published a deep-dive post on Anna Yartseva's research paper, in which she analyzed 464 companies that delivered at least 10-fold returns between 2009 and 2024.
August 21, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Yesterday, we published a deep-dive post on Anna Yartseva's research paper, in which she analyzed 464 companies that delivered at least 10-fold returns between 2009 and 2024.
Bill Miller's Value Trust fund outperformed the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years through 2005, achieving a 4.7% CAGR outperformance versus the SP500TR Index.
Critics dismissed this as luck. But here's what Michael Mauboussin had to say on the matter: 🧵
Critics dismissed this as luck. But here's what Michael Mauboussin had to say on the matter: 🧵
August 21, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Bill Miller's Value Trust fund outperformed the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years through 2005, achieving a 4.7% CAGR outperformance versus the SP500TR Index.
Critics dismissed this as luck. But here's what Michael Mauboussin had to say on the matter: 🧵
Critics dismissed this as luck. But here's what Michael Mauboussin had to say on the matter: 🧵
Clayton Christensen's 2011 Harvard Business Review article "The Big Idea: The New M&A Playbook" reports that mergers and acquisitions fail 70% to 90% of the time.
August 20, 2025 at 12:58 PM
Clayton Christensen's 2011 Harvard Business Review article "The Big Idea: The New M&A Playbook" reports that mergers and acquisitions fail 70% to 90% of the time.
🧵 Most companies destroy value when they try to return cash to shareholders.
They consistently make the wrong choices between dividends, buybacks, and reinvesting in the business...
They consistently make the wrong choices between dividends, buybacks, and reinvesting in the business...
August 18, 2025 at 1:00 PM
🧵 Most companies destroy value when they try to return cash to shareholders.
They consistently make the wrong choices between dividends, buybacks, and reinvesting in the business...
They consistently make the wrong choices between dividends, buybacks, and reinvesting in the business...