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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 13d

Great question. Answer is a bit of both, but higher inflation is the biggest driver, with similar (if lower) nominal wage growth this year compared to last year.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 22d

Unless we get strong growth in one of the next two months' data, annual earnings growth will fall to ~zero in data out on 11th Nov, before Budget, highlighting the importance of decisions there.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 22d

Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.

A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero. Between September 2023 and July 2024, wages grew 2.1%, but in the same period a year later, they grew just 0.1%.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 27d

It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.

Joseph Elliott @jelliott94.bsky.social · 27d

New report: Taxing landlords more is good, actually.

Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.

A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · 29d

Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.

Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · 29d

After a year of a new govt people on low to middle incomes are still struggling to reach the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) 📢

@crsp-uk.bsky.social, supported by JRF, calculated the costs needed to achieve this standard of living in the UK in 2025 1/4

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Aug 14

Without the security of affordable housing, a stable job & adequate social security, it's hard to take risks, invest in your future or be productive at work. Rising living standards aren’t just a desirable by-product of growth, they're an essential ingredient to a strong economy.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Aug 14

A growing economy is good news, and today's growth figures are actually better than expected, even if below the average since 2000. More broadly, the government is running out of time to put direct support for living standards at the heart of its strategy for growth.

Joseph Rowntree Foundation @jrf-uk.bsky.social · Aug 14

GDP grew 0.3% between Apr and June. But the story for families behind these numbers is declining living standards

Without affordable housing, a stable job and strong safety nets, people are less able to take risks or invest in the future

Rising living standards are essential for a strong economy 📢

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Aug 12

Thanks for picking this up. It's based on series A2FC in tab '6. Real AWE' in the spreadsheet at www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan.... We've waited a few months to be sure it's not a blip, but the earnings slowdown (mainly due to higher inflation) feels a real effect to us.

EARN01: Average weekly earnings - Office for National Statistics

Average weekly earnings at sector level headline estimates, Great Britain, monthly, seasonally adjusted. Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey.

www.ons.gov.uk

Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Aug 12

A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Aug 7

We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.

A chart comparing whole economy and private sector regular annual wage growth to CPI and CPIH inflation from September 2024 to December 2025, with the second half of 2025 being based on forecast data. Between December 2024 and December 2025 wage growth is falling, while from September 2024 to September 2025, inflation is rising, such that forecasts for annual private sector wage growth no longer exceeds forecast CPIH by around September 2025 and no longer exceeds forecast CPI by around December 2025.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Aug 6

When coupled with above target rate inflation, falling vacancy numbers and rising unemployment, it how much shows the Chancellor needs to focus on tackling falling living standards there. See jrf.org.uk/news/new-jrf... our previous analysis. (5/5)

jrf.org.uk

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Aug 6

Lack of earnings growth is deeply worrying and should trends continue and the budget be after 11 November (when September earnings data comes out), the latest picture may well show no earnings growth in the latest year. (4/5)

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Aug 6

What did the May Monetary Policy Report say? The Bank doesn’t look at whole economy regular wages or CPIH inflation, and were too high on private sector earnings and too low on CPI inflation. They had both series falling over the next six months. (3/5)

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Aug 6

Latest annual figures are flattered by positive earnings growth between May and September 2024. Why this stagnation? It’s due to higher inflation since September 2024, with non-inflation adjusted (nominal) earnings growth very similar over both periods. (2/5)

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Aug 6

Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Jul 25

Anyway, thanks for engaging with the report and material even if you remain a sceptic.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Jul 25

Thanks, I do think sequences of groups, each building on previous ones make it more objective. And I do think that thinking of what is needed for sufficiency rather than what people are having to go without is a good question. But we do have a range of data to look at, all with their pros and cons.

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Jul 25

See www.jrf.org.uk/a-minimum-in... for the methodology (used consistently since 2008). You'll see from www.lboro.ac.uk/research/crs..., separate MIS's for London & for rural Scotland has been constructed. I do think a good way of determining a decent living standard is to ask people what they need.

A Minimum Income Standard for the United Kingdom in 2024

The Minimum Income Standard provides a vision of the living standards that we, as a society, agree everyone in the UK should be able to achieve. This report sets out what households need to reach it i...

www.jrf.org.uk

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Jul 25

Thanks. This isn't the first way we would recommend raising tax revenue. We'd first look at Capital Gains Tax and National Insurance Contributions on investment income which improve the fairness and efficiency of the tax system and raise revenue. See www.jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for our thinking.

Starmer's missed milestone? The outlook for living standards at the Spring Statement

While on average all families are forecast to see a fall in living standards this Government, families on the lowest incomes are set to bear the brunt of the pain.

www.jrf.org.uk

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Jul 25

Here's a related comment piece from @mattpadley.bsky.social given his insights on pension reform: www.lboro.ac.uk/media-centre...

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Jul 24

See committees.parliament.uk/work/8675/pe... for the excellent Work and Pension Select Committee report and jrf.org.uk/households-l... for the latest Households Below a Minimum Income Standard report. (4/4)

Pensioner Poverty: challenges and mitigations - Committees - UK Parliament

Are pension age benefits and the State Pension enough to stop pensioners from falling into poverty?  We are looking at the state of pensioner poverty in the UK. Which groups are most affected? Wh...

committees.parliament.uk

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Jul 24

The report says "a guiding principle should be [State Pension] provides the amount needed for a minimum, dignified, socially acceptable standard of living. The Government should set a strategy to reduce ... the proportion of pensioners living below this level in future." (3/4)

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Jul 24

As I told the committee, the proportion of pensioners not reaching MIS, which sets out what the public agree is needed for a minimum, dignified, socially acceptable standard of living, has actually gone up even faster than the main poverty measure. (2/4)

A chart showing the proportion of pensioners falling below the Minimum Income Standard. This was around 13% in the period 2008-11 (around 1 in 8 pensioners), rising to 19% by 2017/18 (close to 1 in 5 pensioners), before falling back to 15% in 2020/21 (around 1 in 6 pensioners). The proportion of pensioners below the standard rose dramatically between then and 2022/23, currently standing at 24% (close to 1 in 4 pensioners).

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Jul 24

Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).

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Peter Matejic @statspeter.bsky.social · Jun 27

Thanks @bbcnewslive.bsky.social for covering disability cuts (I'm on just after 12.20 at bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live...) I'm proud of everyone's work in getting mitigations for existing recipients, but it's not right support is being cut from future disabled people who will be at high risk of hardship.

bbc.co.uk

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