Vin D
@stogachess.bsky.social
Data Scientist. Live in Austin.
it'll be by more, largely due to turnout differential.
Dems are a lot more enthusiastic, but early polls based on RVs not LVs won't pick that up.
Even in the NYT poll there were stark signs -> 84% of Democrats said Trump is one of the worst presidents ever. Those people will all vote.
Dems are a lot more enthusiastic, but early polls based on RVs not LVs won't pick that up.
Even in the NYT poll there were stark signs -> 84% of Democrats said Trump is one of the worst presidents ever. Those people will all vote.
January 22, 2026 at 5:20 PM
it'll be by more, largely due to turnout differential.
Dems are a lot more enthusiastic, but early polls based on RVs not LVs won't pick that up.
Even in the NYT poll there were stark signs -> 84% of Democrats said Trump is one of the worst presidents ever. Those people will all vote.
Dems are a lot more enthusiastic, but early polls based on RVs not LVs won't pick that up.
Even in the NYT poll there were stark signs -> 84% of Democrats said Trump is one of the worst presidents ever. Those people will all vote.
Everyone needs to re-read Achieving Our Country. Rorty nailed it!
January 22, 2026 at 3:12 PM
Everyone needs to re-read Achieving Our Country. Rorty nailed it!
Do these leftist idiots ever listen to themselves? They would say stuff like "George W Bush was more a fascist than Trump". It's absurd! We all lived in Bush's America, there are plenty of reasonable criticisms of it, but my god to say that was the same or worse than this is not credible.
January 22, 2026 at 3:01 PM
Do these leftist idiots ever listen to themselves? They would say stuff like "George W Bush was more a fascist than Trump". It's absurd! We all lived in Bush's America, there are plenty of reasonable criticisms of it, but my god to say that was the same or worse than this is not credible.
All of these people should read the first 10 pages of "Achieving our Country".
January 22, 2026 at 2:50 PM
All of these people should read the first 10 pages of "Achieving our Country".
assume undecideds break about 3:1 for Dems (this is usually how midterms go, where undecideds break hard against the president's party), so remaining 9% will go 7% for Dems to 2% for Rs. So 55-45
January 22, 2026 at 1:12 PM
assume undecideds break about 3:1 for Dems (this is usually how midterms go, where undecideds break hard against the president's party), so remaining 9% will go 7% for Dems to 2% for Rs. So 55-45
i find the contempt among progs for libs and libs for progs very discouraging. we all basically want the same things. let's have respect for each other and try to be productive.
January 22, 2026 at 5:11 AM
i find the contempt among progs for libs and libs for progs very discouraging. we all basically want the same things. let's have respect for each other and try to be productive.
we have criminal leadership in our country
January 21, 2026 at 6:26 PM
we have criminal leadership in our country
you are a hero man. keep it up.
January 21, 2026 at 3:15 AM
you are a hero man. keep it up.
nope, it is all about shaping the narrative for us Dems now, the January econ data is terrible because Trump is destroying the economy, no additional nuance needes
January 20, 2026 at 5:20 PM
nope, it is all about shaping the narrative for us Dems now, the January econ data is terrible because Trump is destroying the economy, no additional nuance needes
Adam Tooze and Howard Lutnick on a panel. Wow!
January 20, 2026 at 5:01 PM
Adam Tooze and Howard Lutnick on a panel. Wow!
Matters for 2028 more than 2026
January 20, 2026 at 1:23 AM
Matters for 2028 more than 2026
15 to 30 maybe with Greenland, no way 45
January 20, 2026 at 1:09 AM
15 to 30 maybe with Greenland, no way 45
which is why the next Dem nominee won't be someone who worked in the Biden WH
January 17, 2026 at 5:33 PM
which is why the next Dem nominee won't be someone who worked in the Biden WH
so I guess Dimon turned him down? If so, smart.
January 17, 2026 at 5:32 PM
so I guess Dimon turned him down? If so, smart.
We are learning:
* The Resist libs were right about everything
* The Resist libs were not cringe. They were fighting some very dark forces.
At this point, to be an irony-pilled leftist is cringe
* The Resist libs were right about everything
* The Resist libs were not cringe. They were fighting some very dark forces.
At this point, to be an irony-pilled leftist is cringe
January 17, 2026 at 2:22 PM
We are learning:
* The Resist libs were right about everything
* The Resist libs were not cringe. They were fighting some very dark forces.
At this point, to be an irony-pilled leftist is cringe
* The Resist libs were right about everything
* The Resist libs were not cringe. They were fighting some very dark forces.
At this point, to be an irony-pilled leftist is cringe
worth watching how quickly Spanberger (& Sherill) move once inaugurated. May represent an incredible boost for the Democratic Party.
January 17, 2026 at 1:29 AM
worth watching how quickly Spanberger (& Sherill) move once inaugurated. May represent an incredible boost for the Democratic Party.
January 17, 2026 at 1:14 AM
why? what happened today?
January 16, 2026 at 6:20 PM
why? what happened today?
he is in deep trouble politically.
not just the overall disapproval, but that he is so negative on economy/foreign policy/immigration. there isn't a good issue for him to pivot to.
not just the overall disapproval, but that he is so negative on economy/foreign policy/immigration. there isn't a good issue for him to pivot to.
January 16, 2026 at 1:42 PM
he is in deep trouble politically.
not just the overall disapproval, but that he is so negative on economy/foreign policy/immigration. there isn't a good issue for him to pivot to.
not just the overall disapproval, but that he is so negative on economy/foreign policy/immigration. there isn't a good issue for him to pivot to.
it's smart. the resistance to what is happening is fierce and durable and is independent of leadership. Walz offering an olive branch makes clearer that Trump is the aggressor here.
January 16, 2026 at 1:03 AM
it's smart. the resistance to what is happening is fierce and durable and is independent of leadership. Walz offering an olive branch makes clearer that Trump is the aggressor here.
he isn't a sociopath like Altman
January 16, 2026 at 12:17 AM
he isn't a sociopath like Altman
man i hope anthropic beats OpenAI. How can you not root for Dario over Altman?
January 15, 2026 at 11:55 PM
man i hope anthropic beats OpenAI. How can you not root for Dario over Altman?