We're Not Ready for Superintelligence
AI 2027 depicts a possible future where artificial intelligence radically transforms the world in just a few intense years. It’s based on detailed expert forecasts — but how much of it will actually happen? Are we really racing towards a choice between a planet controlled by the elite, or one where humans have lost control entirely? My takeaway? Loss of control, racing scenarios, and concentration of power are all concerningly plausible, and among the most pressing issues the world faces. Check out the video and the resources below, judge the scenario for yourself, and let me know in the comments: how realistic is this? What are you still confused about? What makes you feel skeptical? What do you think we can actually do about this? *Where to find me, Aric Floyd* Subscribe to AI in Context to get up to speed and join the conversation about AI. There’s a lot to figure out, and we might have less time than you think. It’s time to jump in. You can also follow for skits and explainers on YouTube Shorts as well as: TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@ai_in_context Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ai_in_context/ This video is a production of 80,000 Hours. Find us at https://80000hours.org and subscribe to our main YouTube channel here: @eightythousandhours *What you can do next* To read more about what you might be able to do to help, or get involved, check out: https://80000hours.org/agi/ You can also check out the 80,000 Hours job board at https://jobs.80000hours.org Or see what the authors of AI 2027 suggest doing next: https://blog.ai-futures.org/p/what-you-can-do-about-ai-2027 Or take a 2-hour course on the Future of AI: https://bluedot.org/courses/future-of-ai You can tell your US or UK representatives you care about this issue in 60 seconds using this tool: https://controlai.com/take-action/ And if you just want some practical recommendations for how you and your family can get more prepared: https://benjamintodd.substack.com/p/how-can-an-ordinary-person-prepare *Further reading and watching* About AI 2027 Full report: https://ai-2027.com/ By Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean Update on their model: https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast#2025-may-7-update The lead author’s change in median forecast to 2028: https://x.com/DKokotajlo/status/1940270575248973910 For more videos about AI risk, check out: Previous video about AI 2027: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_onqn68GHY Could AI wipe out humanity? | Most pressing problems: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=qzyEgZwfkKY Intro to AI Safety by Rob Miles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYXy-A4siMw Me on Computerphile: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYP0ynR8h-k For more on what it means for an AI to “seek reward”, check out my short video: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/OoClSkTd6yY To read more about misalignment and AI risk: https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/artificial-intelligence/ To read more about why AGI by 2030 is plausible https://80000hours.org/agi/guide/when-will-agi-arrive/ *Chapters* 0:00 Introduction 1:15 The World in 2025 3:53 The Scenario Begins 6:07 Sidebar: Feedback Loops 7:21 China Wakes Up 10:11 Sidebar: Chain of Thought 10:52 Better-than-human Coders 11:46 Sidebar: Misalignment in the Real World 12:08 Agent-3 Deceives 15:18 Sidebar: How Misalignment Happens 17:53 The Choice 20:07 Ending A: The Race 24:08 Ending B: Slowdown 26:30 Zooming Out 29:04 The Implications 31:19 What Do We Do? 33:30 Conclusions and Resources *Credits* Directed and Produced by Phoebe Brooks: https://pbrooksfilms.com/ Written by Phoebe Brooks and Aric Floyd Editing, Graphics and Animation by Phoebe Brooks, Sam Watkins and Daniel Recinto: https://www.watkinsfilms.com/, http://behance.net/danielrecinto Executive Produced by Chana Messinger Production assistance from Charlotte Maxwell, Jack Worrall, David Erwood and Jake Morris With special thanks to Daniel Kokotajlo, Ryan Greenblatt, Nate Soares, Max Harms, Katja Grace, Mark Beall, Seán Ó Héigeartaigh and Eli Lifland And thanks to Bella Forristal, Arden Koehler, Ailbhe Treacy, Rob Wiblin, Sean Riley, Siliconversations, Mathematicanese, Valerie Richmond, Daria Ivanova, Sloane Siegel, Brendan Hurst, Katy Moore, Mark DeVries, Ines Fernandez, Francesca Forristal, Rob Miles, Elizabeth Cox, Drew Spartz, Petr Lebedev, Mithuna Yoganathan, Conor Barnes
