Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
@sundersays.bsky.social
36K followers 5K following 19K posts
Director of @britishfuture.bsky.social Author How to be a Patriot https://harpercollins.co.uk/products/how-to-be-a-patriot-why-love-of-country-can-end-our-very-british-culture-war-sunder-katwala?variant=40518936559694 Evertonian
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sundersays.bsky.social
This may be the idea that Badenoch is getting at with not wanting the debate to be on "how many faces people see on the street and what they look like"
bsky.app/profile/sund...
sundersays.bsky.social
Badenoch both defended Jenrick - for just making observations - but also said: “I don’t think this is where the debate should be, about how many faces people see on the street and what they look like.”
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
sundersays.bsky.social
I put five tests of how to define a "legitimate concern"

(4) was my challenge to talk about integration in a way that can resonate with white, black, Asian and mixed race people in Britain - not in ways that only make sense to one group
www.britishfuture.org/understandin...
sundersays.bsky.social
Badenoch both defended Jenrick - for just making observations - but also said: “I don’t think this is where the debate should be, about how many faces people see on the street and what they look like.”
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
sundersays.bsky.social
Yet that probably makes sense to many white British mainstream conservatives aged 55-65+ even while seeming a very static 'them and us' way of thinking about this country to second and third generation Britons born a generation or two after that, as well as to liberals from the majority group too
sundersays.bsky.social
I wrote this in 2013 about David Goodhart's The British Dream - on the "counting heads" approach to treating the white British % as the key indicator of integration
www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemoc...
sundersays.bsky.social
"The people of Smethwick certainly don't want integration" was the view of Tory Peter Griffiths in his notorious 1964 election contest, explaining why he would never criticise children chanting *that* slogan about n-word neighbours

("Integration" in 1964 as 'woke' social engineering+race mixing)
sundersays.bsky.social
On LBC at 23.20 to talk with Ben Kentish about the impacts in Britain of the two years since October 7th 2023
sundersays.bsky.social
So the new policy is this speech of 7th March 2023 but outside the ECHR

Claim is verybody could be returned within one week (because the government would start to open negotiations on a Rwanda-style scheme with Rwanda or somebody else!). Will hit similar capacity ceiling
www.gov.uk/government/s...
sundersays.bsky.social
I am agreeing that a populism that pitches to 25-30% (with some respectability credentials and reputational shields) is a different proposition to a Tommy Robindon party, and is now pushing the boundaries right on mass deportations and remigration of legal and even permanent settled migrants
sundersays.bsky.social
Chris Philp says starting Rwanda would have stopped all Channel boats immediately (which is v unlikely given its 1% scale). But it couldnt deter the 30k people in hotels and the 50k people in the UK, who the last government was pledged to refuse forever & renove, with no real world option for where
sundersays.bsky.social
The UK has some societal strengths. They mean a UK populism needs somewhat stromget very basic overt racism boundaries than the AfD. But clesrly a fragmented 6-8 party system is vulnerable to a populism that pitches to a third of the public rather than a tenth of it, if they manage those tensions
sundersays.bsky.social
I think Farage is right to see Tommy Robinson and the street football lads as electotally toxic. But that also makes Farage more effective. He has clearly moved right since November (Trump, Musk, Lowe, Robinson) There are few or no Reform moderates and lots of pro-Trump anti-system radicalisers
sundersays.bsky.social
Thanks Dave. It is complicated. I was saying the overt racist 3% are shrinking (and lashing out at so much diversity at the top). Robinson is clearly mobilising his 4% bsse & 10-12% casual support which is the "what has Tommy ever said is racist" latent but clearly racialised grievance group
sundersays.bsky.social
sundersays.bsky.social
Trump's standing on immigration tends to deteriorate when his push for mass deportations dominates the news, though he has a large minority base for his approach
sundersays.bsky.social
American polarisation is much starker than in Britain, where most people are balancers on immigration. But even in America, attitudes tend to be thermostatic: hardening under Biden, seen as lacking control, now softening under Trump (as in his first term) because of chaos, cruelty and violence
sundersays.bsky.social
Source: Archie Hall's thread for the deeper dive
bsky.app/profile/arch...
archiehall.bsky.social
For the first time in about 70 years, net immigration to America could be zero. Beneath the noise of tariff and budget fights, migration may well be the biggest economic story of 2025.

My latest for @economist.com: Welcome to Zero Migration America

Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...

🧵 below
sundersays.bsky.social
Donald Trump has delivered zero to negative net migration for the first time in 70 years. The chaos and cruelty mean most Americans disapprove of Trump on immigration now - and the US public overall are more *pro" immigration than ever before
sundersays.bsky.social
I don't think they are paying so much attention to politics but I will attempt an update after all of the conferences
sundersays.bsky.social
There was only one 2024 constituency where the Conservatives won 50% of the vote: Harrow East, which is also one of only two Conservative-held seats (with Leicester East) where most voters aren't white
sundersays.bsky.social
It is partly Reform-aversion. Scottish Tories are Unionists who value institutions/norms, so face risks from disruptive populism

Ethnic minority Tories [voters] are more centrist on immigration & race - pro-migration (legal), pro-integration, moderately pro-blm - than ethnic minority commentators
sundersays.bsky.social
This is partly because in the longrun Scottish Tories (a quarter or sixth of Scots) and ethnic minority Tories (a fifth/sixth of ethnic minorities) are counter-zeitgeist to start with. Smaller groups, more loyal/resilient.
sundersays.bsky.social
The Conservatives are obviously in a lot of political trouble, because they have lost support after their 24% worst ever result

A quirk that has not been noticed: resilient/loyal Conservatives are more likely to be ethnic minorities and Scottish voters than white British voters in England!
Reposted by Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
omaromalleykhan.bsky.social
This statistical fact is also obvious across so many domains: politicians, sport, economics, media, neighbours, partners, children

Does any adult in Britain (20, 40, 60 or 80) really think, has genuinely experienced, *less* interactions across ethnicity than they did as a child or younger afult?
Reposted by Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
omaromalleykhan.bsky.social
Here's the relevant chart from the above report. It's rare to see such a clear, consistent slope in any social trend. That segregation is decreasing is perhaps the best evidence, least controversial social fact of modern Britain