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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 13m

Also, this would have been politically radical but likely effective, letting BYD into the US might have been a quite useful disinflationary effort given how much rising car prices contributed to inflation. Telsa and the UAW would've HATED this but BYD is highly competitive everywhere its allowed.

Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 20m

Arguably because the kinds of policy from CHIPs and the IRA were meant for overly long-term outcomes and too much focus on competition with China rather than solving more immediate problems that were arising (most notably housing supply shortages exacerbated by slowing construction from rate rises).

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 36m

The bigger stimulus definitely did good, our real growth rates were faster than other countries without higher inflation levels while real income growth was quite fast and disproportionately so among lower income brackets in the US.

COVID relief was highly effective, post-22 policy was less so.

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 42m

Inflation also dropped in places that did fewer rate rises. Inflation dropped basically everywhere and at broadly similar rates even with different monetary policies. This is far too complex a topic to simply say "well it did come down so the rate rises worked".

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 1h

The question becomes, does the rate effect actually work against primarily supply-side inflation rises? And that's a real debate! Also possible that tax rises, especially focused among higher income folks who've had way disproportionate consumption impacts, would have been far more effective.

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 2h

associated with higher public disapproval of inflation per "The Cost of Money is Part of The Cost of Living" paper that noted inflation hawk Larry Summers helped write. www.nber.org/papers/w3216...

Joe Manchin and Jerome Powell fucked Biden's admin and Biden didn't even want to try and blame them

The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

www.nber.org

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 2h

Eh, I wouldn't say Biden did too much (the inflation that hit was about the same everywhere in the developed world including countries that did far less), but not making popular welfare moves like the child tax credit permanent really hurt. And not interfering with the fed since high rates were 1/2

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 10h

Obama is actually a counter-example to that. His personal charisma did carry him despite not fixing unemployment until basically the tail end of his 2nd term. And to be fair, that was partly his fault for doing a too limited stimulus package. Which did fuck over lower level Dems though.

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 11h

From a sub-tropical climate and lots of folks bike/walk on hot summer days. Shade becomes really important but beyond that heat is not much of a barrier (maybe more in REALLY hot places like desserts)

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Reposted by Surplus Cornbread

Al Jazeera English @aljazeera.com · 13h

BREAKING: Israeli war planes continue to launch raids on Gaza City as Palestinians celebrate the ceasefire announcement, according to an Al Jazeera Arabic correspondent on the ground.

🔴 LIVE update: aje.io/xqppys

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 13h

Sorry, best I can do is $5 million ARR for any consecutive 30 day period you choose (projections allowed if the 30 days includes future days)

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 13h

I know some bikes can go that fast, I quite dislike the ones that use regulatory loop holes and can go up to 50 mph just because they have pedals on them. Those I'd be fine with enforcement actions against. But I'll admit I haven't seen those and a lot of folks are bad at judging speed.

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 13h

Its healthy to be able to articulate not just that you dislike something, but also how much you do and then what exactly should be done about it.

If you want to yell at a cyclist to get in the road have at it! If you want cops to start enforcing that, I'm going to say they have better things to do.

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 13h

Well I was responding to someone else so feel free to mute the conversation if you like.

But surely bikes can belong on the sidewalk when parked to a bike parking spot? And there may be some sidewalk riding to briefly get there. And as I said before I'm annoyed when people do it, but that's all.

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 13h

I'm in favor of not making anything a principle that can fit in a social media post.

Including the principal I just articulated of course!

Beyond that to say, its not so much about being "in favor", but just the degree of "disfavor" I hold to those practices. Which is pretty mild.

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 14h

Man some folks are really weird. Guy blocked me when I asked what his problem was, so I'm going to assume he's a Zionist.

@surpluscornbread.bsky.social
"I am thrilled for the people of Gaza that they will get at least a temporary reprieve.

But I also don't trust Trump and Israel to keep the ceasefire. Any break is better than none and the longer it lasts the better, but I fully expect the Israelis to break their agreement and Trump to support them."

@jayweixelbaum.bsky.social
"why does your opinion matter"

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 14h

What is your problem? Do you go around asking every person who posts "why does your opinion matter"?

Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 14h

why does your question matter?

Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 14h

I would just suggest let the results of what you see actually happen in these interactions guide you more than the worry about might happen scenarios. In the absence of hard data for results, that's the best way to handle anecdotal experience in my opinion.

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 14h

I am thrilled for the people of Gaza that they will get at least a temporary reprieve.

But I also don't trust Trump and Israel to keep the ceasefire. Any break is better than none and the longer it lasts the better, but I fully expect the Israelis to break their agreement and Trump to support them.

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 14h

Its not dumb luck if collisions are rare, but just the fact that people walking are rarely unpredictable. Multi-use paths like the Beltline in Atlanta show its not dangerous for pedestrians and bikes/scooters to be mixed. But narrow sidewalks do make this more annoying. Though still only annoying.

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 14h

As a guy who walks more than I e-bike, I do think sidewalk riding in a dense part of the city with lots of stop lights keeping car travel slow is annoying and completely unnecessary. And its often young guys who cut it closer than they should.

But annoyance is all I can really muster for it.

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 16h

Slight nuance in the article: he's not exactly implying if this was universal it'd kill the industry, just the UK would be "left behind". Granted, the UK is already not important in the big LLM race (which is almost all US companies with a few Chinese ones). So really, who cares? Make the rule.

“I just don’t know how you go around, asking everyone first. I just don’t see how that would work,” Clegg said. “And by the way if you did it in Britain and no one else did it, you would basically kill the AI industry in this country overnight.”

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 17h

The president of Colombia is saying there are indications the last boat that was attacked in Trump's Caribbean murder spree may have been Colombian. If true, its no longer just Venezuela Trump is doing acts of war against.
x.com/petrogustavo...

Tweet from @petrogustavo quoting @SenAdamSchiff
Auto-translated from Spanish by Grok
"Senator Adam Schiff is correct.

Now I find myself in a meeting with the European governments and I will say the same thing.

A new war scenario has opened up: the Caribbean.

Indications show that the last boat bombed was Colombian with Colombian citizens inside it. I hope their families come forward and report it.

There is no war against smuggling; what there is is a war for oil and it must be stopped by the world.

The aggression is against all of Latin America and the Caribbean."
Quoted tweet from Adam Schiff:
"Tomorrow, I, along with @SenTimKaine
will be forcing a vote to block President Trump’s use of our Armed Forces to conduct strikes against vessels in the Caribbean Sea.

Congress has not authorized these strikes. They are illegal and risk dragging America into another war."

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Surplus Cornbread @surpluscornbread.bsky.social · 17h

The details on the Palisades fire case are going to be interesting. Assuming this charge is accurate, the state seems confident this guy caused a fire. A big question will be if an ember from his fire #1 actually caused the fire that did the most damage a week later. www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr...

Florida Man Arrested on Federal Criminal Complaint Alleging He Maliciously Started What Became the Palisades Fire

A former Pacific Palisades resident now living in Florida has been arrested on a federal criminal complaint charging him with maliciously starting what eventually became the Palisades Fire of January ...

www.justice.gov