The simplest equations for predicting the winner of the election were these:

If Harris won more support among women than she lost among men, she would become President.

If Trump won more support among men than he lost among women, he would become President.

Trump’s equation became a reality.

Here is the swing state of Wisconsin.

Obama won both urban and rural districts.

Biden lost rural areas but held on to urban strongholds like Madison and Milwaukee.

Harris, however, was crushed in rural areas and couldn’t make up the difference in the cities.

A remarkable shift in just 12 years.

Rural America is solidly red.

No candidate in history has matched Donald Trump’s performance in rural districts.

Democrats often claim that every vote lost in rural America is offset by gaining two in suburbs and cities.

But the numbers simply don’t add up.

The Democrats have lost the white working class.

In 1992, Bill Clinton won two-thirds of all white working-class voters.

Today, the numbers have reversed. Trump won two-thirds, leaving just one-third for Harris.

Meanwhile, Harris is far from winning highly educated voters to the same extent.

The Democrats' most loyal voting group, Black voters, are slowly drifting away from the party.

Obama secured an impressive 95%, Clinton and Biden around 90%, but Harris only managed about 85%.

Trump’s 13–14% among Black voters marks the best Republican performance since Nixon in 1960!

Democrats’ loss among Latino voters accelerated in this election.

Obama received 72%, Clinton 65%, Biden 60%, and Harris only around 52%.

Donald Trump is now the Republican candidate who has received the most votes among Latinos in history.

Let’s start with the election map.

Kamala Harris lost ground compared to 2020 almost everywhere—small cities, large cities, suburbs, rural districts. All red.

Democrats lost ground in a staggering 49 out of 50 states!

Remember the good old days in 2012?

In just 12 years, the Democrats have lost ground among key demographic groups.

Here’s a quick, numbers-driven dive into the US 2024 election—unpacked in 7 posts! 🧵👇🏽

#Polisky #Polsci #AcademicSky #USelection2024

Book 7:

Right-wing parties are rising across Western democracies. Is it due to a voter shift? Maybe not.

@valentimvicente.bsky.social insightful book reveals how social norms drive demand (voters) and supply (skilled leaders), reshaping the political landscape in today's Western democracies.

Book 6:

Do populist politicians have a specific type of personality? Yes, they do. And it is dark.

@alessandronai.bsky.social & @ Maier show that populist leaders tend to score high on narcissism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism and rely on character attacks to attract dark voters.

Book 5:

Liberal democracies need a world safe for democracy.

Yet, the expansion of the liberal world order has changed it from a club with solid commitments to a public utility in which countries can break the rules.

In a time when the US global leadership is vaning, this book is pivotal.

Book 4:

Krupnikov & Ryan upend the conventional view on polarization.

Citizens are not so much polarized by party and ideology. They are polarized by involvement in politics.

A vocal minority is deeply involved, while most are less interested in daily politics.

Book 3:

Discussing democratic crises often means addressing polarization. Yet, navigating the vast academic polarization research can be overwhelming.

@ezrakleinbot.bsky.social's book offers an exceptionally well-written overview and connects it to present democratic challenges. A must-read!

Book 2:

We’ve lost respect for political opponents.

By moralizing issues, we leave little room for differing views and end up alienating each other.

It is no longer about political disagreements. It is about right and wrong, good and evil, life and death.

In past episodes, US democracy faced 1-3 challenges at a time.

What’s uniquely alarming today is that all four threats—polarization, nativism, inequality, and executive aggrandizement—are present simultaneously, creating an unprecedented crisis!

Book 1:

@smettler.bsky.social & Lieberman explore five crises in the US: the 1790s, the Civil War, the Gilded Age, the Great Depression, & Watergate.

In each period, democracy was threatened by various challenges: Polarization, nativism, inequality, & executive aggrandizement.

Looking for the perfect Christmas gift? 🎁 Or perhaps something for Black Friday? ⚫

Why not a new book on today’s most critical topic: the crisis of Western democracies? 📚

Here are 7 impactful must-reads 🧵 👇🏽

Do you think Europeans are getting increasingly fed up with their democracies? Not really!

New 2024 Eurobarometer data reveals 50 years of democratic resilience.

Top-3 in 2024:
🥇 Denmark
🥈 Luxembourg
🥉 Sweden

Here are the numbers you usually don’t see.