plot twist: emails are sent by chatGPT

🤔

Our bullish bet did not play out this time, to put it mildly. So in the end we walked away with a tiny +$110.

practically it does not exist

The payout structure is as follows, on Dec 20, 2024:

- we have an uncapped profit if price goes up and above $109400.

- we have a fixed +$110 profit if price goes below $108610.

- we sustain up to a maximum loss of -$390 if price stays somewhere within $108610-$109400 range.

Of two possible outcomes:

Draw: we win +$1383 and lose -$1.4
No draw: we win +$2800 and lose -$1037

We would have made money anyway.

This one was easy: 3 unanswered goals have already been scored before we even noticed. But for educational purpose, here's how a green book looks like:

A bit of terminology: "back" is the same as "long" in finance, "make the book green" is to structure your bets such that you make some money no matter the outcome, typically achieved by time arbitrage.

This strategy plays out as follows:

- lay the draw before the game starts.
- if goals start happening then probability of draw starts falling, so we can sell our shares at profit.
- optionally, if conditions are good, we can back the draw with freed funds at better odds and "make the book green".

And of course ideological bitcoiners have been avoiding this giant opportunity since about 2016 at all costs.

To be fair, partially because it was pitched in a very academic way by Drivechain/Hivemind people (market signalling, reveal of private info etc) and not as NGU tech that it apparently is

It's a reasonable proposition for book-makers to at least start participating in blockchain betting if not wind down their own websites completely: much less regulatory headaches, a plan for a future where Polymarket-style wins completely

Suddenly the world is already full of potential-market makers for blockchain-based sports betting since traditional book-makers are exactly market-makers who have historically captured a trading platform, got rid of other sellers and then did a distributed cartel collusion

We ourselves use this favor of RSI as one of many features in our proprietary price prediction model. Ablation tests show that it alone improves model accuracy by about 1%, which is substantial.

What's important here is that chosen indicator must be global, that is, at any given time it should display exactly the same value to anyone looking.

Tradingview is arguably the most popular trading interface in the world and RSI is one of the most widely used trading indicators.

When it comes to technical indicators, our opinion is that most of them are meaningless and can't be relied upon in any way. However, very few of them do have predictive power simply because they are popular and lots of traders have decided to coordinate around them in a distributed fashion.