Here we go! Region 4274 fires a big X1.8-flare now! HF and VHF radio is getting hammered by an R3-level radio blackout. Expect degraded radio & GPS reception over the next hour on Earth's dayside, especially the Western Hemisphere, Hawaii & West Africa (colored regions in map).

Along with the Sun's farside blasts, several solar storms are headed to Earth! Expect a bumpy ride through October 28. Aurora chasers at high latitudes could see decent shows. HF radio & GPS users expect better reception on the dayside. See my latest forecast for more https://youtu.be/-_pYGbD1l00

Space Weather has picks up in a big way! Region 4246 launches 4 solar storms towards Earth. Region 4248 and 4250 are entering the same hot longitudes and are becoming more active. Expect big flares, HF radio blackouts and & storm launches to continue! Strong Earth-impacts peak October 15-17.

The NOAA model run includes the two Earth-directed #solarstorm launches. The larger one catches up with the smaller one just ahead of Earth so a precursor disturbance may indeed ramp up before the larger storm hits. Impact is expected by late September 1. G2+ conditions are possible.

Here is the coronagraph imagery showing an impressive full halo signature, despite what at first glance looked like a modest eruption on the solar disk.

A close look at the coronal blast wave during the #solarstorm launch shows mild dimming along the edges of a large perimeter (highlighted region). This may indicate a large area of coronal magnetic field may have been ejected, contributing to the impressive halo signature seen in coronagraphs.

Direct Hit! Region 4199 fires an M2.7-class flare & launches a #solarstorm in the Earth-strike zone! NASA models predict storm impact late September 1. Another, slower storm ahead may cause early effects. #Aurora possible to mid-latitudes. Expect HF communications & GPS issues on Earth's nightside.

Looking at NOAA's recently released run, it seems SWPC might have modeled a two-part eruption. The stronger part being directed slightly eastward of Earth, while the weaker part directed more towards Earth. This is likely why NOAA believes we won't see much of an impact until early July 27.

Now, it looks like NASA chose to model this multi-part eruption as a single storm because the coronagraph signature was so complex. Their model run shows essentially a direct hit early on July 26, circa 0400 UTC.

Now, here is what makes things interesting. These eruptions happened so close together that in coronagraphs they look like a single structure launching to the east side of the Sun, but that is not consistent with the location of the main filament launch, which was west of center disk.