Register now to join us at FFC/2025: The 26th Federal Forecasters Conference on October 9th! cer.columbian.gwu.edu/ffc2025-26th...

Speakers at #NABE2025 will address a shifting trade landscape, geopolitical instabilities, the complexities of widespread AI adoption, as well as persistent inflation and escalating fiscal imbalances. Join us and explore how governments and businesses can adapt to these new and enduring pressures.

#NABE2025 will explore the challenges and opportunities confronting leaders as they navigate an evolving global economy.

Join us for the 2025 NABE Economic Policy Conference, “Global Reset? New Dynamics Facing Business and Policy Leaders,” March 2-4 in Washington, DC! Register now! www.NABE.com/PC2025

Overall the report today looked like another set of data consistent with a soft landing.

More resources to the statistical agencies could help them collect more data more quickly and provide better information for data-driven decisions. For other examples, see the slides my (very nerdy) talk from last October: "Real Time Economics: Tales from the Trenches".

Statistical agencies face a timeliness versus accuracy tradeoff and provide the best estimates they can early on and as more information comes in they provide updates and revisions. They're doing incredible work on shoestring budgets.

Seasonal factor revisions strike again! Remember that increase in the U.S. unemployment rate in July to 4.3%? It ends up peak unemployment so far this cycle, based on updated seasonal adjustments, was just 4.2%. This is a challenge for policymakers watching every data release.

New Business Applications increased in November 2024 remaining at high levels relative to 2019. Applications in November 2024 for likely employers 46% higher than average month in 2019.

I got my Macro Musings podcast nominal GDP targeting mug. Check out the episode here: macromusings.libsyn.com/tara-sinclai...

On 9/27 at 3pm ET, join us at #ClimateConversations: The Macroeconomy with Eric Kemp-Benedict, Gregor Semieniuk and me on how to better incorporate climate into #Economic models: bit.ly/cc-macroecon...

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