We didn't know about the xbl ban or the 4chan connections

nutrient loaf

you don't. Cognitive bias doesn't work out like that. People in general do not have the capacity to face facts that fundamentally challenge their beliefs and if those in power benefit from appeasing to people's cognitive bias by lying, they will.

All these betting markets are both incredibly easy to game if you have inside information and overly simplify complex issues into numbers that mean less than nothing. You might as well be talking about your dad who works at Nintendo telling you about banjo threeie.