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António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · 21h

www.economist.com/briefing/201... Back in 2010 the Economist was the case for tax cuts: "A paper by António Afonso of the European Central Bank and Davide Furceri of the OECD found that increases in government spending as a proportion of GDP tended to be correlated with slower economic growth."

Sharing the pain

Increasing budget deficits and rising government debts are likely to entail fierce political battles—not least between taxpayers and public-sector workers

www.economist.com

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · 17d

Happy to be in the World's top 1%! Elsevier Data Repository, Aug 2025. "Updated science-wide author databases of standardized citation indicators" elsevier.digitalcommonsdata.com/datasets/btc...

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Sep 6

www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/pu... A discretionary positive shock to the primary balance leads to a decrease in real government debt, a result consistent with a Monetary Dominant regime and sustainable fiscal practices.

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Aug 28

14th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. Fri, Jul 17, 2026. ISEG. Lisbon. uece2.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/events/2026/... Keynote: Roel Beetsma

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Aug 22

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... António Afonso, Francisco Gomes Pereira. "An expansionary monetary policy stance, following an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, leads to lower primary balances."

Does monetary policy influence euro area fiscal sustainability?

This paper studies the impact of monetary policy on fiscal sustainability in the euro area. We extend a standard fiscal reaction function by introduci…

www.sciencedirect.com

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António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Aug 7

ideas.repec.org/e/paf1.html

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Jul 10

www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/ar...

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Jun 24

lnkd.in/dkjH8fbV "Greater skewness is associated with higher sovereign bond yields and higher short-term interest rates. In contrast, an increase in debt concentration tends to reduce both sovereign bond yields and short-term interest rates."

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Jun 11

lnkd.in/deQA9iiP Copernicus proposed a single unifying theory: the Quantity Theory of Money. In his 1526 tract, Copernicus identified the single common cause of all inflation as the general increase in the quantity of coins minted from any given metal basis.

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · May 24

Investment dynamics and economic growth: a robust VAR analysis of public and private investments across 18 advanced economies: Applied Economics: Vol 0, No 0 - Get Access www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Investment dynamics and economic growth: a robust VAR analysis of public and private investments across 18 advanced economies

This study examines the macroeconomic returns on public and private investments in 18 advanced economies from 1965 to 2019 using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. By exploring the interplay b...

www.tandfonline.com

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · May 5

António Afonso, Jorge Ferreira. rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/wps/ "With 1,368 euro-denominated sovereign bonds issued between Q1:2018 and Q1:2022 in 19 Eurozone countries, we find that the PEPP was more effective in low-debt countries, but its effects diminished with higher debt levels."

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Apr 18

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... Antonio Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta "With local projection methods, we find that in high-debt and low-sustainability regime, ”fiscal inflation” where monetary tightening raises prices instead of containing them."

Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: a panel analysis of the Euro Area

We examine the impact of surprise shocks on real output and price levels, conditioned on different fiscal stances, using quarterly data from 2001Q4 to…

www.sciencedirect.com

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Apr 12

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Does Fiscal Policy Boost Economic Growth in the LDCs? The Role of Fiscal Ratings and Key Fiscal Variables

Fiscal policy is an important tool for stimulating economic growth. Thus, in this paper, we assess empirically the role of the World Bank's Country Policy so-called fiscal policy rating variables (fi....

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Apr 10

"The Paradox of Macroprudential Policy and Sovereign Risk", forthcoming. António Afonso, André Teixeira. "Macroprudential policy lowers sovereign risk. The effect diminishes with excessive regulation or high debt. Paradoxically, macroprudential policy may increase public debt."

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Apr 8

“Monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability: the case of the Euro Area” forthcoming, 2025. António Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta. In the Euro Area, Germany, Italy, Portugal, in Ricardian regimes, output and prices contract after monetary tightening.

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Apr 7

“Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: a panel analysis of the Euro Area” forthcoming, 2025, JIMF. António Afonso, José Alves, Serena Ionta. "From 2001Q4 to 2021Q4 for 19 Euro Area countries, in the high-debt, low-sustainability regime, monetary tightening raises prices."

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Apr 3

2024 REM - Research in Economics and Mathematics (rem.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt) Young Researcher Award. Congratulations to the students Gabriel Pereira, Tomás Kapandoglu, Maryam Moshkelgosha, Fernando Reis, and to the supervisors, Isabel Proença, Raquel Bernardino, Maria João Guedes, Luís Costa

Reposted by António Afonso

CESifo @cesifo.org · Apr 2

⏰ Working Paper Alert

"Compliance with Fiscal Sustainability and the Euro"
✏️ @theiiiman.bsky.social & Catarina Farinha Miranda

Does adopting the euro contribute to fiscal sustainability in the Eurozone?
📚Find out here: www.cesifo.org/en/publicati...

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António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Mar 27

ISEG PhD in Economics. www.linkedin.com/posts/iseg-p...

Excellence in academic research is one of the pillars of ISEG's PhD… | ISEG PhDs

Excellence in academic research is one of the pillars of ISEG's PhD programme in Economics. António Afonso, the programme's coordinator, highlights the highly…

www.linkedin.com

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Mar 25

20000 citations in Google Scholar! scholar.google.com/citations?us...

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António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Mar 16

RHEINMETALL AG stock price spiking (Deutsche Börse): war economy?!

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Mar 13

2025 ISEG Master in Monetary and Financial Economics iseg.ulisboa.pt/study/master... Yes, you can still enroll!

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Mar 13

"Does fiscal policy boost economic growth in the LDCs? The role of fiscal ratings and key fiscal variables", forthcoming (lnkd.in/d66ScYAN) A. Afonso, M. Blanco-Arana. Fiscal policy rating positively enhance economic growth in LDCs, and government effectiveness positively influences growth.

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Mar 10

inomics.com/conference/1...

13th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments_Lisbon, 4 July 2025 | INOMICS

UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics), REM and ISEG are organising the 13th UECE Conference on Economic and Financial Adjustments. In this context we...

inomics.com

António Afonso @theiiiman.bsky.social · Mar 8

Testimonials of students/former students:
António Martins, Video: lnkd.in/df92-p_Q
Philemon Opoku, Video. lnkd.in/dbcUmCTY
Zoë Venter, Video: lnkd.in/d8g_t7hK
Joana Sousa Leite, Video: lnkd.in/dvAdS7iZ
Eduardo Sá Fortes, Video; lnkd.in/dsByD-_k