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Reposted by Institute for the Study of War

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 12h

NEW: The Kremlin continues its reflexive control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. 🧵(1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar100725

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 12h

6/ These recent Russian threats about Tomahawk missile provisions are part of Russia’s wider reflexive control campaign that aims to coerce Russia’s opponents to make policy decisions that actually benefit Russia. isw.pub/UkrWar100725

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7, 2025

The Kremlin continues its reflective control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

isw.pub

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 12h

5/ Previous Western weapons provisions and Ukrainian strikes using US-provided long-range weapons systems, however, did not trigger an escalatory Russian reaction, and the West and Ukraine have repeatedly violated Russia’s alleged “red lines” in the past with no resulting escalation.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 12h

4/ ...F-16 fighter jets, and Abrams tanks, and has routinely successfully delayed the provision of Western weapons to Ukraine.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 12h

3/ The Kremlin has previously conducted similar influence operations when the United States was discussing sending Ukraine Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS),...

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 12h

2/ ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is attempting to portray potential US Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine as a dangerous escalation to deter the United States from sending such weapons to Ukraine.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 12h

NEW: The Kremlin continues its reflexive control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. 🧵(1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar100725

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Reposted by Institute for the Study of War

Critical Threats Project @criticalthreats.bsky.social · 13h

Iran is pursuing alternative mechanisms, which may include barter systems, to mitigate the impact of snapback sanctions. Iran’s moves to mitigate sanctions are likely driven by concerns that sanctions on the Iranian economy will trigger an economic downturn.

www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 14h

Grow your network and hone your skills with ISW this spring!

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 14h

Join a community of young professionals in national security. From practicing your analytic tradecraft skills in trainings w/ your intern cohort to directly contributing to our mission, you will build relationships that will shape your career.

Apply to our internship: understandingwar.org... (1/2)

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Reposted by Institute for the Study of War

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 1d

NEW: Hamas agreed to a ceasefire with Israel on October 3 but called for negotiating other aspects of US President Donald Trump’s plan for peace in the Gaza Strip.

Read the October 6, 2025, Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

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Reposted by Institute for the Study of War

Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 1d

NEW: Russia appears to be accelerating the informational and psychological condition-setting phase — “Phase 0” — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar100625

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 1d

NEW: Russia appears to be accelerating the informational and psychological condition-setting phase — “Phase 0” — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar100625

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 1d

5/ Iraqi Shia nationalist cleric Muqtada al Sadr is reportedly planning to make an unspecified “move” regarding the upcoming November 2025 Iraqi parliamentary elections that will not cause “chaos or escalation,” according to a former Sadrist parliamentarian.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 1d

4/ Iran appears to be prioritizing strengthening its air power by purchasing foreign fighter jets to address weaknesses that Israel exploited during the Israel-Iran War.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 1d

3/ Iran and the People’s Republic of China have reportedly used barter systems that avoid monetary transactions on the international market to circumvent US sanctions on Iran since at least 2018, according to two US media reports published on October 5.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 1d

2/ Syria’s October 5 parliamentary elections are a positive step toward the development of a representative government in Syria, but the establishment of political parties will likely be necessary to form any meaningful opposition to Syrian President Ahmed al Shara.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 1d

NEW: Hamas agreed to a ceasefire with Israel on October 3 but called for negotiating other aspects of US President Donald Trump’s plan for peace in the Gaza Strip.

Read the October 6, 2025, Iran Update: isw.pub/IranUpdate10...

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 2d

7/ Ukraine has reportedly launched mass production of its new, domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile with a 3,000-kilometer range and 1,150-kilogram warhead, but the system remains unproven, and Ukraine will need time to scale up production.

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar100525

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5, 2025

Toplines Russian President Vladimir Putin continues attempts to deter the US from sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by linking improvements in the US-Russian bilateral relationship to concessions f...

isw.pub

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 2d

6/ ISW assesses that at least 1,945 Russian military objects are within range of the 2,500 km Tomahawk and at least 1,655 within range of the 1,600-km variant. Ukraine likely can significantly degrade Russia’s frontline battlefield performance by targeting a vulnerable subset of rear support areas.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 2d

5/ Russia’s nightly strike packages in Sept. 2025 featured an average of 187 long-range drones per night. Similar strike packages in Jan. only featured an average of 83 drones. Russia notably started launching overnight strike packages that included over 500 drones more frequently in Sept. 2025.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 2d

4/ Russia has been able to significantly scale up its Shahed drone production by expanding the factory in Yelabuga, allowing Russia to launch increasingly large and more frequent long-range drone strikes against Ukraine.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 2d

3/ Ukraine’s ability to launch missile strikes deep into Russia’s rear with larger payloads would allow Ukraine to significantly damage – if not destroy – key military assets in Russia, such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, or the Engels-2 Air Base in Saratov Oblast.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 2d

2/ Ukrainian forces are able to conduct long-range drone strikes against a significant portion of Russia’s rear, but the payloads on these drones are limited and not suitable to destroy specialized objects.

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Institute for the Study of War @thestudyofwar.bsky.social · 2d

MORE: The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear.🧵 (1/7)
isw.pub/UkrWar100525

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