Tim Hotze
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Tim Hotze
@timhotze.com
Managing Editor @meninred97.com
Chicago Fire (& other) soccer
Member @soccerreporters.bsky.social

MLS Roster Rule nerd. GAM aficionado.
The phrase "committing journalism" is pretty chilling in this context, but it's also a tell: The Trump camp is clearly staking a lot that the ground they've laid for a decade (undermining credibility of journalism etc.) will work even when the context is radically different
January 30, 2026 at 3:15 PM
The framing. If he wanted to make a point about parity, that needed to be the focus. But it's boring and he knew it so...
January 30, 2026 at 3:41 AM
Doesn't mean I think HIP is the right way to go; I don't.

But there just isn't a fiscal reason why the NWSL couldn't have had a structure in place that would've allowed the Spirit to offer Rodman a deal to keep here here, past the old "rich like underpaying labor if they can" thing.
January 30, 2026 at 3:20 AM
There is not an ownership group in the league that would be measurably affected by a $1m change in team payroll. Or $2m. or $5m.

Until recently, NWSL existed in a vacuum where the league didn't need to compete with others for top talent. That's changed. So the rules have to change.
January 30, 2026 at 3:17 AM
I got the argument, my point is that it was an incredibly bad way of making it, with enough straw to stuff a pretty convincing XI that didn't even support the central thesis.

I'm glad Rodman is getting paid, but this is also Kang throwing down a gauntlet for the women's game. And I'm glad she did.
January 30, 2026 at 2:59 AM
And yet Levante's women play in the same division as Barcelona.

So maybe, in that case, Liew shouldn't have made "Eurorich" his counterweight? (and I've never read "Europoor" before that column, either, point of fact.)
January 30, 2026 at 1:37 AM
Oh he knows it: Apparently Trin earning 2% of the going rate for an expansion NWSL team over her new deal is the "Suez Crisis" which laid bare to the UK that they weren't a superpower post WWII.

Because that's how that went down in Egypt.
January 29, 2026 at 8:37 PM
Still trying to square "Eurorich" football with "crowds of 800" in the same column.

"Organic growth" ignores the fact that pro women's soccer didn't happen by spontaneous generation; a lot of people with a lot more money got together and made it happen... if they want to spend more on players? Good
January 29, 2026 at 8:34 PM
The universe is vast but nothing in it is more fragile than the untempered male ego.

Nothing.
January 27, 2026 at 12:34 AM
The fact that basically everyone is going to say "no, of course not, that's absurd" just screams that that's not what's going on here and the difference between this & gambling is who the regulator is
January 26, 2026 at 9:47 PM
Team's own games is 1 thing but isn't the idea of pred markets that there's value by letting someone w/insight- better model, w/e – get contracts so interested parties can have improved accuracy?

So wouldn't you *want* the ppl who know the game best – y'know, players, coaches, etc. - in the mkt?
January 26, 2026 at 9:43 PM
This is the dumbest thing: Begs Q of if teams/ppl involved Sports gambling for those in the sport is clearly wrong and illegal. But "predictions?"

Is this some extension of insider trading? A trainer can't "predict" b/c they've got material nonpublic information? It all seems absurd.
January 26, 2026 at 9:33 PM
Almost like the project was financed for something other than belief about how it'd do at the box office....
January 26, 2026 at 6:55 PM
Seriously, though: On top of Arman's MLS knowledge, dude has 2 econ degrees. I took like 2 macro classes.

Add that to his deep knowledge MLS and the cap.... if you're a true sicko, his (free!) substack is a must footyanalyticmusings.substack.com
Footy Analytic Musings | Arman | Substack
Musings about how we can do a better job of explaining and using analytics to describe the world's game. Click to read Footy Analytic Musings, by Arman, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscri...
footyanalyticmusings.substack.com
January 25, 2026 at 4:19 PM
And Bamba gets the Fire off to a 1-0 lead off of service from Gutman
January 24, 2026 at 3:23 PM