Tim Latimer
@timlatimer.bsky.social
7K followers 820 following 350 posts
Geothermal 🌋⚡️ CEO @ Fervo Energy HTX
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timlatimer.bsky.social
I propose a “Rendering Index” for new technologies. Ratio of press releases accompanied by renderings vs. actual photos of projects. To be used as an estimation of commercial readiness for a new technology sector.
timlatimer.bsky.social
I guess it inevitably comes with more attention being focused on geothermal, but I’m starting to see a lot more “startups” in the space that are just outright frauds. Some have even already gotten significant funding.

Caveat emptor.
timlatimer.bsky.social
Usually layoffs happen at corporates during downturns. This market cycle feels very different. Is there historical precedent for what we are seeing now at many companies, which is layoffs happening concurrently to quarter after quarter of record profits?
timlatimer.bsky.social
It’s very clear the future is EVs. Astonishing how fast they have taken over in these markets.
wblau.bsky.social
Staggering figures.
Source: www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/b...
“Nepal, The Country Where 76% of Cars Sold Are Electric”
timlatimer.bsky.social
That probably adds to my point. It takes quite a bit of work to get even a single patent. An idea is just the beginning of that process.
timlatimer.bsky.social
It’s not a graph of electricity prices. It’s a graph of Electrical Power and Specialty Transformer Manufacturing.

The point is, people hoping power prices will go back to “normal”, in a new regime when most of the major inputs to power prices are structurally higher, are not going to be happy.
timlatimer.bsky.social
It’s a Producer Price Index for Electrical Power and Specialty Transformer Manufacturing.
timlatimer.bsky.social
Driving costs lower in the face of unprecedented rises in power component costs while simultaneously removing China from the supply chain is going to be quite a challenge.
timlatimer.bsky.social
Distributed energy is probably even more exposed to these price trends than utility scale is.
timlatimer.bsky.social
A lot of folks still have 2000-2010s era power prices in their heads as “normal” with an expectation that we will return to “normal” at some point.

There are many reasons that isn’t true, but this is probably the biggest among them. We are in a new era of power prices.
timlatimer.bsky.social
This has been very different from the Fervo experience, where we are flooded with hundreds of applicants for every technical role we post now. I don’t think staff shortages are going to be a limiter for geothermal growth. www.wsj.com/articles/geo...
Geothermal Energy Is Heating Up. It’s Going to Need More Geologists.
The only renewable-energy source buoyed by the Trump administration is in short supply of scientific experts as the industry expands.
www.wsj.com
timlatimer.bsky.social
I have found to to be an almost invariable rule that, after seeing a viral post about a business leader that insists on some weird quirk for their company meetings, if you ask someone that works at that company, they basically just have normal meetings like any other corporation.
timlatimer.bsky.social
If it’s that easy to replicate it probably was never going to be an enduring business anyway.
timlatimer.bsky.social
Hardtech startups are generally way too concerned about someone “stealing their idea”, to their detriment. The Edison quote that it is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration is very applicable.

Ideas are easy, execution is hard.
timlatimer.bsky.social
No, the article is correct. Taking existing technology from shale and then adapting it to work is the whole thesis, and that’s what the article says.
timlatimer.bsky.social
Warrens is correct. While the technology category of PDC bits comes from oil and gas, they have had to be adapted to perform in granite.
timlatimer.bsky.social
That was my reaction at first, and actually spent a few years trying to get a job somewhere already
using this approach for EGS because I thought it was so obvious someone must be doing it.

However, replicating O&G performance in geothermal reservoirs has been a huge technical undertaking.
timlatimer.bsky.social
Hello, regular reminder that if you are using stale drilling costs for geothermal analysis, anything from more than 12 months ago, your analysis is wildly out of date and you are going to have a major miss in forecasting.
timlatimer.bsky.social
There is a fear that LLMs will stop their pace of improvement because they’ll run out of training data. Based on their answers on utilities questions, there is actually a long way of to go. Although the prospect of LLMs trained on utility filings is concerning for other reasons. 😆
timlatimer.bsky.social
It was a great week this week at Fervo.
Reposted by Tim Latimer
timlatimer.bsky.social
Seems like something happened in April that really shifted the prospects of the US oil and gas industry. 🤔
peark.es
US oil rig counts (proxy for drilling activity) down 13% YTD.
Chart of weekly Baker-Hughes US rig counts
timlatimer.bsky.social
As a general rule, someone throwing around the acronym “EROI” is a good signal they have no idea how energy markets work.