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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · 13d

the two vignettes are hidden in the tar.gz that you can download from CRAN. Then go to TTR.PGM/inst/doc 3/3

Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · 13d

if you are interested in using the process model for attribution or species distribution modelling, check out our R package: besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... 2/3

TTR.PGM: An R package for modelling the distributions and dynamics of plants using the Thornley transport resistance plant growth model

An ability to predict the ranges and dynamics of species is central to ecological and evolutionary research. Despite species range modelling being an active area of research for the past three to ...

besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · 13d

Attribution of vegetation change to climate change: here we compared vegetation time series to simulations from a process model forced with observed and counterfactual (detrended) climate data. Trends in climate necessary for the model to emulate vegetation trends www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/3

Shifts in vegetation activity of terrestrial ecosystems attributable to climate trends - Nature Geoscience

An analysis fusing satellite data with a process-based model of plant growth attributes changes in vegetation activity across terrestrial ecosystems to climatic changes.

www.nature.com

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Reposted by Timo Conradi

David Zelený @zdealveindy.bsky.social · Jul 21

Want to do vegetation ecology in Taiwan? I am still searching for postdocs, so if interested, check the ad below and apply!

We focus on ecological drivers of cloud & monsoon forests in mountains and how to explain them using plant functional traits.

davidzeleny.net/veglab/

David Zelený @zdealveindy.bsky.social · Jul 11

I am searching for 1-2 postdocs to join our research team at the Vegetation Ecology Lab, IEEB, National Taiwan University, from August 2025 for one to three years.

Details: davidzeleny.net/veglab/lib/e...

davidzeleny.net/veglab

#postdocjobs #vegetation #TaiwanIsaCountry

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Jul 2

If you are interested in process-based species distribution and plant growth modelling, check out this new R package and paper! besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

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Reposted by Timo Conradi

Juliano Sarmento Cabral @jsarmentocabral.bsky.social · May 29

Postdoc call in Mechanistic Biodiversity Modelling (up to 6 ya) at my lab @unibonn.bsky.social. We focus on modelling terrestrial plant communities, island biogeography, range dynamics, eco-evolutionary feedbacks, diversity gradients, tropical forests, vascular epiphytes. Pls rt! shorturl.at/CL1ny

Postdoc in Mechanistic Biodiversity Modelling with temporary civil servant status (“Akademische*r Rätin*Rat)

100%, A 13, Reference number: 2025/49

shorturl.at

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Apr 3

Congratulations Jens! Truly deserved!

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Feb 26

another very useful finding of this study imo is that process models parametrized inversely from species distribution data performed better than forward-parametrized process models, at least in this set of species with reasonable distribution data.

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Feb 24

One week left to apply!

Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Feb 13

I am hiring a species distribution modeller to compare model projections of climate-change risks for tree species using physiology-based versus correlative SDMs! Get in touch if you are interested. www.uni-bayreuth.de/job-vacancy-...

Job advertisement: University of Bayreuth

Research Associate (m/f/d) for modelling the climatic cultivation risk for tree species in Bavaria under climate change

www.uni-bayreuth.de

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Feb 13

I am hiring a species distribution modeller to compare model projections of climate-change risks for tree species using physiology-based versus correlative SDMs! Get in touch if you are interested. www.uni-bayreuth.de/job-vacancy-...

Job advertisement: University of Bayreuth

Research Associate (m/f/d) for modelling the climatic cultivation risk for tree species in Bavaria under climate change

www.uni-bayreuth.de

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 19

Okay ;) but if there IS a ‚correct‘ state and we fail to recognize it, as has been the case in the forest-savanna-bistability assertion, then we make badly informed management decisions.

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 19

forgot this review: nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Reassessing the alternative ecosystem states proposition in the African savanna‐forest domain

Ecologists are being challenged to predict how ecosystems will respond to climate changes. According to the Multi-Colored World (MCW) hypothesis, climate impacts may not manifest because consumers su...

nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 19

References (first 4 forest-savanna, last one lakes):
Higgins 2023: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Mattos 2023: www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...
Williamson 2024: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Zwaan 2024: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Davidson 2023 Lakes: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Limited climatic space for alternative ecosystem states in Africa

Field observations show that the distribution of African forest and savanna are highly predictable based on climate.

www.science.org

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 19

whereas shorter time series suggest alternative biomass states are possible. I agree that the definition of desired ecosystem states is often debatable, but the use of alternative stable states theory to justify goals is problematic when alternative states are only apparent but not true. 7/7

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 19

A similar problem occurs when the observation time span in experiments is too short to allow deterministic end points to be reached. For example, when the monitoring time series of phytoplankton biomass is extended, it turns out that phytoplankton is linearly related to nutrient concentrations 6/7

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 19

A string of recent works shows that when these factors are considered and better data is used, the remaining overlap between forest and savannas is minimal, refuting the hypothesis of widespread bistability and pointing to a predictable endpoint in this system. I include some references below. 5/7

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 19

such as growing season length and intensity or topography-driven variation in soil hydrology. 4/7

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 19

The graph from the Pausas and Bond paper you posted is an example: It shows overlap along one variable (annual rainfall), but most people would agree that the distribution of forest and savannas is also influenced by other environmental factors 3/7

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 19

The problem is that we often misinterpret prediction uncertainty in ecological models as evidence for overlapping environmental conditions between two or more ecosystem states, when in fact this uncertainty can be greatly reduced by better models and data. 2/7

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 19

I would partly disagree. The evidence for multiple stable states is often not robust enough to use this framework for prescribing management actions. 1/7

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Reposted by Timo Conradi

Alejandro Ordonez @anordonez1.bsky.social · Dec 4

🌟PhD Opportunity at @econovoau.bsky.social 🌟
We're looking for a motivated PhD candidate to join an exciting project on forecasting the spread of novel ecosystems under different environmental scenarios. 🌍
📌 **Deadline**: 1 February 2025
🔗 Apply now: bit.ly/3ZMF5pv
#PhD #Ecology #Modelling

Forecasting the near-future spread of Novel Ecosystems under alternative environmental scenarios

bit.ly

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 2

Thank you!

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 2

Oh cool, could you add me please?

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 2

Thank you 😊

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Timo Conradi @timoconradi.bsky.social · Dec 2

Would love to be on this list if there is space left :)

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