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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 22h

Listen on our website, or wherever you get your podcasts! tnsr.org/horns-of-a-d...

Horns of a Dilemma - Texas National Security Review

Brought to you by the Texas National Security Review, this podcast features lectures, interviews, and panel discussions at The University of Texas at Austin.

tnsr.org

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 22h

Has US policy toward North Korea been a failure? In our latest podcast episode, Igor Khrestin and Chris Walsh from the George W. Bush Institute break down sanctions, trilateral security, and why human rights must be tied to policy moving forward.

"Addressing the North Korean Conundrum" with Igor Khrestin and Chris Walsh

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 5d

Thank you all for helping us continue this endeavor at The University of Texas at Austin! Our articles are alway free at TNSR.org, but if you prefer print issues, you can order those on the @utexaspress.bsky.social website. utpress.utexas.edu/journals/tex...

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 5d

The TNSR leadership team recently met with our friends at @utexaspress.bsky.social, whose tireless efforts ensure that our work is published and distributed. We would also be remiss if we didn't acknowledge the support of our directors at the Clements Center and Strauss Center. Thank you!

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Reposted by Texas National Security Review

Stanford CISAC @stanfordcisac.bsky.social · 6d

A new roundtable by CISAC affiliate @laurensukin.bsky.social and Rohan Mukherjee examines the evolving global nuclear order, with several papers by former CISAC postdocs that show the interconnected nature of nuclear challenges and the vital role of domestic politics.

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 8d

Our latest roundtable examines the rapidly evolving global nuclear order. From North Korea to NATO, China to Latin America, this collection of essays explores the domestic and international forces reshaping nuclear security.

Full roundtable: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review

The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This roundt...

tnsr.org

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Reposted by Texas National Security Review

Politics_Oxford @politicsoxford.bsky.social · 7d

DPIR's @laurensukin.bsky.social has contributed to a roundtable in the @tnsr.org on the nuclear politics of the Korean Peninsula, China, South Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review

The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This roundt...

tnsr.org

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 8d

How does Latin America’s nuclear-free zone offer lessons for global nonproliferation? @jluisrodriguez.com explores the region’s unique approach to managing nuclear risks.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

"Latin America and Contemporary Nuclear Challenges" by J. Luis Rodriguez

Latin American approaches to managing nuclear risks emphasize communal efforts promoting arms control, disarmament, and the irreversibility of nuclear nonproliferation. For these countries, nuclear weapons are not necessary for their security but, instead, represent the primary source of nuclear risks, regardless of who possesses them or how a possessor behaves. As a result, these countries have decided not to acquire these arsenals—but this decision is not automatic. Latin American countries have used the regional and global nonproliferation regimes to lock in this calculus and secure their access to peaceful atomic technologies. It would be a mistake, however, to take these institutions for granted and assume that they will keep managing nuclear risk automatically. The regional approaches may face challenges stemming from the intrinsic difficulties of utilizing peaceful nuclear technologies, the modernization efforts of nuclear powers, and escalating geopolitical tensions among great powers, especially if arms races extend to Latin America.

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 8d

Does NATO have a credible nuclear deterrent—or does consensus decision-making undermine it? Jacklyn Majnemer dives into the tensions between credibility and alliance unity.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

"A Nuclear Veto? The Credibility–Consensus Trade-Off and NATO Nuclear Use Procedures" by Jacklyn Majnemer

Do NATO allies have a veto over the use of American nuclear weapons stationed in Europe? While the alliance has publicly indicated that a NATO nuclear mission would require consensus approval from the Nuclear Planning Group, NATO allies have limited practical means to veto American unilateral use of these weapons. The authorization procedures within NATO for the use of American nuclear weapons stationed in Europe pose inherent trade-offs between credibility and consensus. Meaningful consensus decision-making undermines the credibility of the American nuclear weapons on European soil, but enhancing credibility raises the risk of American nuclear use emanating from Europe that is unwanted by NATO allies. Given the recent erosion of the security environment and allies’ trust in the US, there are reasons to think that the tension between credibility and consensus might become more salient within NATO.

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 8d

From Iran’s nuclear ambitions to great power competition over energy, this essay by @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and Jane Darby Menton examines the complex nuclear dynamics shaping the Middle East and North Africa.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

"MENA at the Threshold? Proliferation Risks and Great Power Competition" by Nicole Grajewski and Jane Darby Menton

This article situates the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the global nuclear order, emphasizing how the region has both challenged and spurred adaptations in international nuclear governance for decades. It then examines two pressing contemporary issues: the uncertain trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program after Israeli and US military strikes in June 2025, and the anticipated expansion of nuclear energy across MENA, which could also result in more countries with capabilities that would be conducive to pursuing the bomb. Both developments underscore the difficulties of managing nuclear latency in a conflict-prone region, where tensions among local actors inflect nuclear decision-making. While there are opportunities to mitigate these challenges, and principles that policymakers should follow in addressing them, nuclear aspirations are likely to remain a prominent feature of MENA’s security landscape so long as underlying tensions between regional actors remain unresolved.

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 8d

How is U.S.—China rivalry fueling a dangerous cascade of nuclear proliferation across Southern Asia? @debak.bsky.social explores the ripple effects of AUKUS and regional competition.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

"Cascades of Competition: Southern Asia, the Indo-Pacific, and AUKUS" by Debak Das

Nuclear stability in Southern Asia is being shaped by different layers of competition in the Indo-Pacific. This article highlights two dynamics that are shaping nuclear competition in the region. The first, within Southern Asia, is states finding space to escalate at lower levels of conflict to address nuclear and military asymmetry. Pakistan is seeking to create space to escalate at lower levels of conflict against India, while India is doing the same against Pakistan on one side and China on the other. The second dynamic is a cascade of reactionary vertical proliferation that is occurring in the Indo-Pacific as a result of China and the United States’ strategic competition. While Washington and Beijing are responding to each other’s nuclear arsenals, India is responding to China’s arsenal, and Pakistan is responding to India’s nuclear modernization. The technology transfers and submarine proliferation in the Indo-Pacific precipitated by AUKUS are intensifying this dynamic.

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 8d

China’s nuclear expansion isn’t just about strategy—it’s deeply tied to domestic politics under Xi Jinping. Learn how centralization and internal priorities are shaping Beijing’s nuclear decisions in this essay by Nicola Leveringhaus.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

"The Domestic Politics Behind China’s Strategic Force Improvements" by Nicola Leveringhaus

China’s nuclear expansion is occurring at a time of major domestic political change, with implications for its nuclear weapons strategy. Domestic changes of note include defense reforms, a contraction and politicization of China’s strategic community, as well as sustained top-down interest in commemoration of China’s nuclear weapons past, such as the “Two Bombs, One Satellite” program. These domestic political changes represent an unprecedented elevation of the national, social, and political value of China’s nuclear weapons by the CCP in the Xi era. How should others in the region and beyond best respond to these changes? The article ends with some thoughts on foreign state engagement with China as Beijing expands and elevates the domestic importance of its nuclear arsenal.

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 8d

Why is South Korea losing confidence in U.S. extended deterrence? @doyoung-lee.bsky.social unpacks how Pyongyang’s aggressive nuclear posture is driving a wedge between allies.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

"Growing Divergence: North Korea’s Evolving Nuclear Strategy and the US–South Korea Alliance" by Do Young Lee

In response to North Korea’s escalating nuclear and missile threats, the US and South Korea have taken measures to reinforce extended deterrence: the Washington Declaration, the Nuclear Consultative Group, and the enhanced visibility of US strategic assets around the Korean Peninsula. Despite these steps, South Korea’s public confidence in US extended deterrence commitments has declined. This article argues that this decline is rooted in growing divergence between US and South Korean interpretations of North Korea’s evolving nuclear strategy and the appropriate responses to it.

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 8d

How are alliances like AUKUS and cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea reshaping the nuclear order? @laurensukin.bsky.social and @rohanmukherjee.bsky.social introduce the essays and explore the effects of domestic politics and global competition.

📖 Read here: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

"The Evolving Global Landscape of Nuclear Security" by Lauren Sukin and Rohan Mukherjee

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 8d

Our latest roundtable examines the rapidly evolving global nuclear order. From North Korea to NATO, China to Latin America, this collection of essays explores the domestic and international forces reshaping nuclear security.

Full roundtable: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review

The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This roundt...

tnsr.org

1 3 10

Reposted by Texas National Security Review

Nuffield College Library @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social · 8d

Navigating the new nuclear map
tnsr.org/roundtable/n...
Round table feature in @tnsr.org chaired by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Fellow @laurensukin.bsky.social and @rohanmukherjee.bsky.social

Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review

The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This…

tnsr.org

1 1 2

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 11d

Read the full analysis here: tnsr.org/2025/09/us-p...

US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis? - Texas National Security Review

As the Trump administration recalibrates America’s global priorities, containing Pyongyang should be at the top of its agenda. Despite the progress of North Korea's illicit weapons programs, the…

tnsr.org

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 11d

Our latest piece explores a multi-pronged strategy that includes diplomatic engagement, sanctions, and military options, while also considering the growing alliances between North Korea, Russia, China, and Iran.

"US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis?" by Cory Gardner, Igor Khrestin, and Chris Walsh. Quote: "The United States cannot simply give up and accept decades of failure as permanent."

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 12d

Learn why understanding uncertainty is critical and how simple training can significantly improve decision-making in high-stakes environments, wherever you get your podcasts.

tnsr.org/horns-of-a-d...

#NationalSecurity #CognitiveBias #DecisionMaking #Leadership

Horns of a Dilemma - Texas National Security Review

Brought to you by the Texas National Security Review, this podcast features lectures, interviews, and panel discussions at The University of Texas at Austin.

tnsr.org

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 12d

Jeff Friedman explores how overconfidence and other cognitive biases impair the judgment of even the most seasoned national security professionals in our latest podcast episode.

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 13d

📖 Read the full article here: tnsr.org/2025/09/us-p...

#NorthKorea #USPolicy #ForeignPolicy #NationalSecurity

US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis? - Texas National Security Review

As the Trump administration recalibrates America’s global priorities, containing Pyongyang should be at the top of its agenda. Despite the progress of North Korea's illicit weapons programs, the…

tnsr.org

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 13d

What does it mean to contain North Korea in today’s geopolitical landscape? Former US Senator Cory Gardner co-authors our latest article exploring the challenges, strategies, and stakes for US policy toward Pyongyang.

"As the Trump administration recalibrates America’s global priorities, containing Pyongyang should be at the top of its agenda." Quote from "US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis?" by Cory Gardner, Igor Khrestin, and Chris Walsh

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 14d

In our conversation with Jeff Friedman from @dartmouthartsci.bsky.social, we discuss his findings that national security officials tend to be overconfident in their assessments of uncertainty.

The bright side? Just 2 minutes of training can improve judgment accuracy. youtu.be/TsiTfyXQ4gA

Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials

YouTube video by Texas National Security Review

youtu.be

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Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 15d

What’s next for US policy on North Korea?

From nuclear threats to diplomatic stalemates, the path forward is anything but clear. Cory Gardner, Igor Khrestin, and Chris Walsh dive deep into the challenges and opportunities for the US on this critical issue. tnsr.org/2025/09/us-p...

US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis? - Texas National Security Review

As the Trump administration recalibrates America’s global priorities, containing Pyongyang should be at the top of its agenda. Despite the progress of North Korea's illicit weapons programs, the Unite...

tnsr.org

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 20d

Read more to learn how the Cold War “CoCom” technology control regime offers lessons for today.

tnsr.org/2025/09/hard...

Hard Then, Harder Now: CoCom’s Lessons and the Challenge of Crafting Effective Export Controls Against China - Texas National Security Review

Will the US-led technology control regime against China have a meaningful impact on the emerging great power competition? Supporters praise the effort’s targeted approach and optimistically see the ca...

tnsr.org

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 20d

In the quest to deny China advanced military capabilities with export controls, Jennifer Lind (@proflind.bsky.social) and Michael Mastanduno warn that US action to expand the control yard could backfire.

"In preparing for the long haul, the more US officials resist the inevitable temptation to expand the control yard, the better their chances at keeping the supplier coalition together . . ." quote by Jennifer Lind and Michael Mastanduno from ". . . CoCom's Lessons and the Challenge of Crafting Effective Export Controls Against China"

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