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Reposted by Tom Calver

Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 3d

Great chart from @tomcalver.bsky.social showing how a third of Britain’s economic output in the mid-1990s comprised fossil fuel extraction, electricity generation and mining. And financial services then stepped in before the financial crisis
www.thetimes.com/article/a394...

Chart showing value added to the economy by certain sectors. Growth in the 1990s was helped by oil and gas extraction

Figures unavailable before 1990
Chart: Tom Calver | The Times and The Sunday Times • Source:
ONS

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · 10d

NEW: Since the start of the Ukraine invasion, 17 out of 27 EU nations have spent more on Russian oil and gas than they’ve sent to Ukraine in aid!

Despite an oil embargo, Europe is still sending £1bn a month on Russian energy.

This week’s column:

www.thetimes.com/article/dd9d...

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 24

Which country works the hardest?

🇺🇸 = long hours, minimal holidays
🇬🇧 = long hours, modest holidays
🇩🇪 = modest hours, lots of holidays

This week’s @thetimes.com column 🔗 www.thetimes.com/article/5463...

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Reposted by Tom Calver

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · Aug 17

"The real mystery is why, during a period of mass migration, the number of foreign prisoners hasn't risen by more."

Good piece by @tomcalver.bsky.social (IMO bottom line is that migration/nationality status has little correlation, +be or -ve, with criminality).

www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Does anyone know whether migrants really commit more crimes?

News reports suggest asylum seekers are more likely to break the law than people born in the UK — so what does the data show?

www.thetimes.com

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 17

When we think rationally about the data we do have, we simply cannot say that migrants as a whole are more likely to commit crime than everyone else.

We await better data. Until then, bad data and bad interpretations threaten to fill the void

www.thetimes.com/article/72b6...

Does anyone know whether migrants really commit more crimes?

News reports suggest asylum seekers are more likely to break the law than people born in the UK — so what does the data show?

www.thetimes.com

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 17

Denominators matter. This is even more of an issue when looking at hard-to-measure populations. Take Afghans: depending on which denominator you use, they either have a wildly high crime rate or a more normal one.

This is the issue with “migrant crime league tables”

7/8

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 17

But there’s another adjustment we should make if we want to answer the question properly

Migrants are younger, and most crime is committed by young people. If migrants had the same crime as everyone else, we’d expect them to be responsible for between 15 and 22% of crimes!

6/8

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 17

In other words, it looks like this data actually shows convictions by a combination of either nationality OR country of birth.

This sounds like splitting hairs but it really matters. While foreign nationals are 11.2% of adults, about 17.3% of adults were born overseas…

5/8

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 17

I don’t think that’s quite the right denominator. A closer look at the data released by the Home Office to the Centre for Migration Control, based on recorded nationality at time of arrest, has some oddities.

Namely, it lists several countries that no longer exist!

4/8

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 17

Is 12.9% a lot? The ONS does provide a figure for the number of foreign nationals (people living in Britain but citizens of another country), and in 2023, it was 11.2% of adults.

But…

3/8

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 17

The Home Office hasn’t released crimes by immigration status, so we have to make do with “nationality” recorded on arrest

Home Office data suggests foreign nationals were behind 12.9% of criminal convictions in 2023. Now….

2/8

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 17

NEW: Are migrants more likely to commit crimes than non-migrants?

Here’s what the data does and doesn’t show.

1/8 @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/article/72b6...

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 10

Data finally proves it: online dating leads to worse relationships

This week’s column is about choice overload, the importance of shared context, and how too much data - when it comes to dating - is a bad thing

@thetimes.com

www.thetimes.com/article/82b7...

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Reposted by Tom Calver

Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 5

This is what $10,000 invested in Palantir on election day would be worth now.

But can you do any better?

Introducing @thetimes.com trading game. How much money can you make in 9 months?

Free link 👇

www.thetimes.com/article/086b...

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 5

This is what $10,000 invested in Palantir on election day would be worth now.

But can you do any better?

Introducing @thetimes.com trading game. How much money can you make in 9 months?

Free link 👇

www.thetimes.com/article/086b...

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Reposted by Tom Calver

The Times & Sunday Times @thetimes.com · Aug 5

Imagine you could go back to election day in November 2024, with $10k and everything you know now.

Could you successfully dodge Trump’s tariffs and outperform the market?

Play our stock trading game ⬇️

Can you beat Trump’s tariffs? Play our stock trading game

www.thetimes.com

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Reposted by Tom Calver

Michael Keith @michael-keith.bsky.social · Aug 5

If you could go back in time, to the day of the 2024 US election, with $10,000 US dollars and everything you know now, how much money do you think you could make?
Try for yourself and watch how Trump's first six months in office have affected the markets.
www.thetimes.com/us/news-toda...

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 3

More in my column, free to read

www.thetimes.com/article/8112...

British savers are motivated by pessimism rather than profit

In America, 62 per cent of people invest in stocks. In Britain, only 20 per cent do. We think it’s ‘too risky’

www.thetimes.com

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 3

Somewhere along the way, Britain lost its appetite for risk.

The challenge for Reeves is encouraging people to invest for profit when times are good, rather than simply building up cash to get through tough times. Doing so might help get Britain growing again.

4/5

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 3

This is bad for our economy. It’s even worse for our own returns because most of that saved money goes into cash

The average Moneyfacts savings rate is 3.5%, less than inflation. Just a quarter find UK stocks appealing while 10% say US equities are becoming more attractive

3/5

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 3

It’s not that British households aren’t putting enough away — in fact, we’re saving more than we were before the pandemic. Too much.

US households were like coiled springs: they spent what they’d saved, and the economy boomed. UK households, however, have been holding back

2/5

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Aug 3

This week’s @thetimes.com column is about how we’re bad at investing

Decades of data shows that rather than investing for profit, UK savers are motivated by pessimism

This “when shit hits the fan, save all you can” approach is bad for our finances, and bad for the economy

1/5

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Jul 27

This week’s @thetimes.com column: what is a comfortable salary in Britain?

Money does buy you happiness - but there’s a definite hump between £50k and £80k 👇

www.thetimes.com/article/f4dd...

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Jul 20

Britain’s grocery prices used to be the envy of Europe; not anymore.

This week’s column on food inflation 🔗 www.thetimes.com/article/5c2c...

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Tom Calver @tomcalver.bsky.social · Jul 13

A third of people in Britain now think the Covid pandemic was exaggerated to control people 🤯🤯

And 22% think the moon landings were staged!

One of many striking findings from new @moreincommonuk.bsky.social report on shattered Britain. My write up here:

🔗 www.thetimes.com/article/bb0f...

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