Tom Carnduff
@tomcarnduff.bsky.social
Football stuff mainly tbh.
Junior Firpo's 24/25 Sky Bet Championship season...
▪️ Starts: 30
▪️ Assists: 10
▪️ Goals: 4
▪️ Chances created: 48
Champion. 🏆🥇
▪️ Starts: 30
▪️ Assists: 10
▪️ Goals: 4
▪️ Chances created: 48
Champion. 🏆🥇
July 1, 2025 at 11:21 AM
Junior Firpo's 24/25 Sky Bet Championship season...
▪️ Starts: 30
▪️ Assists: 10
▪️ Goals: 4
▪️ Chances created: 48
Champion. 🏆🥇
▪️ Starts: 30
▪️ Assists: 10
▪️ Goals: 4
▪️ Chances created: 48
Champion. 🏆🥇
It's been an injury-hit couple of seasons for Lukas Nmecha (made 22 Bundesliga appearances - 3 starts) but has demonstrated a clear preference in the areas he looks to score from. Shot map from the past two seasons showing a clear pattern 👇
June 15, 2025 at 3:25 PM
It's been an injury-hit couple of seasons for Lukas Nmecha (made 22 Bundesliga appearances - 3 starts) but has demonstrated a clear preference in the areas he looks to score from. Shot map from the past two seasons showing a clear pattern 👇
Leeds-linked Jaka Bijol and how his aerial numbers compared to last season's centre-back options (aerial duels won per 90):
▪️ Pascal Struijk - 3.64
▪️ Jaka Bijol - 3.34
▪️ Joe Rodon - 2.65
▪️ Ethan Ampadu - 2.4
▪️ Pascal Struijk - 3.64
▪️ Jaka Bijol - 3.34
▪️ Joe Rodon - 2.65
▪️ Ethan Ampadu - 2.4
June 9, 2025 at 8:35 AM
Leeds-linked Jaka Bijol and how his aerial numbers compared to last season's centre-back options (aerial duels won per 90):
▪️ Pascal Struijk - 3.64
▪️ Jaka Bijol - 3.34
▪️ Joe Rodon - 2.65
▪️ Ethan Ampadu - 2.4
▪️ Pascal Struijk - 3.64
▪️ Jaka Bijol - 3.34
▪️ Joe Rodon - 2.65
▪️ Ethan Ampadu - 2.4
And so, we move onto the play-offs.
Teams who finish 3rd in the Championship have reached the final in 80% of the previous 20 seasons (16/20), with 45% (9/20) securing promotion.
Teams who finish 3rd in the Championship have reached the final in 80% of the previous 20 seasons (16/20), with 45% (9/20) securing promotion.
May 5, 2025 at 10:21 AM
And so, we move onto the play-offs.
Teams who finish 3rd in the Championship have reached the final in 80% of the previous 20 seasons (16/20), with 45% (9/20) securing promotion.
Teams who finish 3rd in the Championship have reached the final in 80% of the previous 20 seasons (16/20), with 45% (9/20) securing promotion.
The final two home games of the season delivered:
✅ 6-0 and 4-0 wins
⚽️ 10 goals
🎯 23 shots on target
📝 40 shots
✅ 6-0 and 4-0 wins
⚽️ 10 goals
🎯 23 shots on target
📝 40 shots
May 4, 2025 at 9:19 AM
The final two home games of the season delivered:
✅ 6-0 and 4-0 wins
⚽️ 10 goals
🎯 23 shots on target
📝 40 shots
✅ 6-0 and 4-0 wins
⚽️ 10 goals
🎯 23 shots on target
📝 40 shots
After the 1-1 draw with Luton, Leeds looked like they'd lost their spark. One win in six at that stage and struggling to create anything (they had eight shots that day).
Fair to say, I really didn't expect the six which followed:
✅ Six wins
⚽️ 16 goals
🏆 18 points
Fair to say, I really didn't expect the six which followed:
✅ Six wins
⚽️ 16 goals
🏆 18 points
May 4, 2025 at 9:14 AM
After the 1-1 draw with Luton, Leeds looked like they'd lost their spark. One win in six at that stage and struggling to create anything (they had eight shots that day).
Fair to say, I really didn't expect the six which followed:
✅ Six wins
⚽️ 16 goals
🏆 18 points
Fair to say, I really didn't expect the six which followed:
✅ Six wins
⚽️ 16 goals
🏆 18 points
Joël Piroe wins the Sky Bet Championship's Golden Boot with 19 goals.
Really consistent with where he scores when hitting the target... 🎯
Really consistent with where he scores when hitting the target... 🎯
May 4, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Joël Piroe wins the Sky Bet Championship's Golden Boot with 19 goals.
Really consistent with where he scores when hitting the target... 🎯
Really consistent with where he scores when hitting the target... 🎯
And look at that after half-time for Leeds.
The 25 shots attempted was the second-highest of their Championship title-winning season (most was 29 in the 7-0 win over Cardiff).
Also the 14th occasion they posted at least 20 shots.
The 25 shots attempted was the second-highest of their Championship title-winning season (most was 29 in the 7-0 win over Cardiff).
Also the 14th occasion they posted at least 20 shots.
May 4, 2025 at 8:51 AM
And look at that after half-time for Leeds.
The 25 shots attempted was the second-highest of their Championship title-winning season (most was 29 in the 7-0 win over Cardiff).
Also the 14th occasion they posted at least 20 shots.
The 25 shots attempted was the second-highest of their Championship title-winning season (most was 29 in the 7-0 win over Cardiff).
Also the 14th occasion they posted at least 20 shots.
Can you tell Bradford needed a goal to be promoted?
May 4, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Can you tell Bradford needed a goal to be promoted?
Oh and Ethan Ampadu attempted a ridiculous 164 passes in Leeds' 4-0 win over Bristol City, successfully completing 157 of 'em.
April 29, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Oh and Ethan Ampadu attempted a ridiculous 164 passes in Leeds' 4-0 win over Bristol City, successfully completing 157 of 'em.
A season-high five chances created by Ilia Gruev as Leeds beat Bristol City 4-0 on Monday - that included an assist on Largie Ramazani's second goal of the night.
April 29, 2025 at 1:32 PM
A season-high five chances created by Ilia Gruev as Leeds beat Bristol City 4-0 on Monday - that included an assist on Largie Ramazani's second goal of the night.
‘Scarf on seat game’ at the end of the season which didn’t have huge pressure on it. That was nice.
April 29, 2025 at 7:48 AM
‘Scarf on seat game’ at the end of the season which didn’t have huge pressure on it. That was nice.
A total of 89 goals in 44 games for Leeds en route to promotion from an expected goals (xG) tally of 84.57.
And here's where they placed every one of 'em.
And here's where they placed every one of 'em.
April 22, 2025 at 11:27 AM
A total of 89 goals in 44 games for Leeds en route to promotion from an expected goals (xG) tally of 84.57.
And here's where they placed every one of 'em.
And here's where they placed every one of 'em.
⚽️ Joel Piroe is now two clear in the Championship's top goalscorer charts (19).
Implied probability in the odds on being the top scorer:
▪️ August 11 - 5.9%
▪️ September 27 - 3.8%
▪️ January 1 - 9.1%
▪️ February 24 - 42.1%
▪️ Pre-Stoke yesterday - 12.5%
▪️ Post-Stoke - 85.7%
Implied probability in the odds on being the top scorer:
▪️ August 11 - 5.9%
▪️ September 27 - 3.8%
▪️ January 1 - 9.1%
▪️ February 24 - 42.1%
▪️ Pre-Stoke yesterday - 12.5%
▪️ Post-Stoke - 85.7%
April 22, 2025 at 11:00 AM
⚽️ Joel Piroe is now two clear in the Championship's top goalscorer charts (19).
Implied probability in the odds on being the top scorer:
▪️ August 11 - 5.9%
▪️ September 27 - 3.8%
▪️ January 1 - 9.1%
▪️ February 24 - 42.1%
▪️ Pre-Stoke yesterday - 12.5%
▪️ Post-Stoke - 85.7%
Implied probability in the odds on being the top scorer:
▪️ August 11 - 5.9%
▪️ September 27 - 3.8%
▪️ January 1 - 9.1%
▪️ February 24 - 42.1%
▪️ Pre-Stoke yesterday - 12.5%
▪️ Post-Stoke - 85.7%
And for Burnley...
The implied probability of promotion at opening was 30.8%.
Hit 50% after two big wins to start the season.
Dropped to 28.6% at the end of October.
Jumped to 69.2% in mid-January.
Back to 50% in mid-February.
Rocketed in such a short space of time in April.
The implied probability of promotion at opening was 30.8%.
Hit 50% after two big wins to start the season.
Dropped to 28.6% at the end of October.
Jumped to 69.2% in mid-January.
Back to 50% in mid-February.
Rocketed in such a short space of time in April.
April 22, 2025 at 10:31 AM
And for Burnley...
The implied probability of promotion at opening was 30.8%.
Hit 50% after two big wins to start the season.
Dropped to 28.6% at the end of October.
Jumped to 69.2% in mid-January.
Back to 50% in mid-February.
Rocketed in such a short space of time in April.
The implied probability of promotion at opening was 30.8%.
Hit 50% after two big wins to start the season.
Dropped to 28.6% at the end of October.
Jumped to 69.2% in mid-January.
Back to 50% in mid-February.
Rocketed in such a short space of time in April.
When Leeds were beaten in the play-off final at Wembley, the implied probability of promotion in 24/25 was 34.8%.
It stood at 52.4% after two opening draws.
Up to 94.1% after three wins over Christmas.
At 97.1% after a 7-0 win over Cardiff.
Dropped to 81.8% just 17 days ago.
It stood at 52.4% after two opening draws.
Up to 94.1% after three wins over Christmas.
At 97.1% after a 7-0 win over Cardiff.
Dropped to 81.8% just 17 days ago.
April 22, 2025 at 10:31 AM
When Leeds were beaten in the play-off final at Wembley, the implied probability of promotion in 24/25 was 34.8%.
It stood at 52.4% after two opening draws.
Up to 94.1% after three wins over Christmas.
At 97.1% after a 7-0 win over Cardiff.
Dropped to 81.8% just 17 days ago.
It stood at 52.4% after two opening draws.
Up to 94.1% after three wins over Christmas.
At 97.1% after a 7-0 win over Cardiff.
Dropped to 81.8% just 17 days ago.
From 34.8% after defeat in the play-off final to 99% following Friday's win over Oxford.
Here's Leeds' season through the bookmakers' implied probability for promotion.
Here's Leeds' season through the bookmakers' implied probability for promotion.
April 21, 2025 at 6:25 PM
From 34.8% after defeat in the play-off final to 99% following Friday's win over Oxford.
Here's Leeds' season through the bookmakers' implied probability for promotion.
Here's Leeds' season through the bookmakers' implied probability for promotion.
A goal for Junior Firpo in Leeds' 6-0 win over Stoke but he created four chances for teammates too.
April 21, 2025 at 4:20 PM
A goal for Junior Firpo in Leeds' 6-0 win over Stoke but he created four chances for teammates too.
Joel Piroe has a hat-trick just 20 minutes into Leeds vs Stoke.
April 21, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Joel Piroe has a hat-trick just 20 minutes into Leeds vs Stoke.
Who thought this was a good idea then? The running of that club seems mad.
April 21, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Who thought this was a good idea then? The running of that club seems mad.
Now That’s What I Call Bundesliga!
April 19, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Now That’s What I Call Bundesliga!
For fans of that Championship graphic floating around this week which showed every team had something to play for still, let me introduce you to ‘Schalke can still finish top of the league or bottom of the league with five games to go’
April 18, 2025 at 10:29 AM
For fans of that Championship graphic floating around this week which showed every team had something to play for still, let me introduce you to ‘Schalke can still finish top of the league or bottom of the league with five games to go’
A sixth goal of the season for Jayden Bogle on Saturday, who is apparently a right-back.
The win over Preston was also the tenth occasion in which he's returned at least two shots.
The win over Preston was also the tenth occasion in which he's returned at least two shots.
April 14, 2025 at 10:03 AM
A sixth goal of the season for Jayden Bogle on Saturday, who is apparently a right-back.
The win over Preston was also the tenth occasion in which he's returned at least two shots.
The win over Preston was also the tenth occasion in which he's returned at least two shots.
📊 Leeds created chances worth 3.53 expected goals (xG) in yesterday’s 2-1 victory over Preston.
🥉 That’s their third-highest return of the season (after 5.74 in 7-0 win over Cardiff and 3.64 in 2-0 win at Coventry).
🥉 That’s their third-highest return of the season (after 5.74 in 7-0 win over Cardiff and 3.64 in 2-0 win at Coventry).
April 13, 2025 at 10:28 AM
📊 Leeds created chances worth 3.53 expected goals (xG) in yesterday’s 2-1 victory over Preston.
🥉 That’s their third-highest return of the season (after 5.74 in 7-0 win over Cardiff and 3.64 in 2-0 win at Coventry).
🥉 That’s their third-highest return of the season (after 5.74 in 7-0 win over Cardiff and 3.64 in 2-0 win at Coventry).