TransitionZero
@transitionzero.org
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⚡️ A non-profit climate tech startup based in London 🔌Open software, data and insights to support energy transition planning
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As with all countries on Scenario Builder, we start users with a ‘least-cost’ scenario, which is a starting point to allow users to quickly tweak assumptions to see how policies and prices affect costs, investments, and emissions. This lets users move from model to insight more quickly.
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🇵🇭 The Philippines is home to the region’s fourth-largest coal fleet, but has imposed a moratorium on new coal development. How can it meet surging demand while accelerating its clean energy transition? When and how can solar, offshore wind, storage, and interconnections take the lead?
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🇲🇾 Malaysia's power sector is at a crossroads — balancing rapid demand growth, a clear coal phase-out schedule, declining domestic gas reserves, and abundant but unevenly distributed renewable resources ... a fascinating energy story is unfolding.
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What’s different from our earlier country releases? We’re representing each of these countries as 3-node models, allowing users to explore capacity expansion pathways at the sub-national level — a major step forward, given how distinct the energy landscape and priorities are across the regions.
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🚀 Scenario Builder now features multi-node models for Malaysia and the Philippines!

We’re excited to expand Scenario Builder’s coverage to two of Southeast Asia’s most dynamic and fast-evolving power markets.
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👉 Download the full Modelling 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy in Singapore report here → transitionzero.org/cfe

These reports are based on detailed open source grid models. The GitHub repository will be made available after publication of the last report.
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🔄 Regional interconnectors are key: they save money and reduce emissions by increasing solar generation and further displacing gas. A 1 GW import line from Indonesia increases clean electricity access from 2.7% to 10% by 2030.
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💰 Results show that achieving a 70% CFE share could lower system costs by US$47M annually compared with annual matching, while saving at least US$185M in fuel costs by displacing gas on the main grid.
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Our model treated Singapore as a single grid zone with two interconnectors: the existing link to Peninsular Malaysia and a planned connection to Indonesia.
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Using a detailed, open-source model, we examined how 24/7 carbon-free energy could affect grid planners and corporate buyers. Specifically, what are the implications of meeting 4% of demand with 24/7 CFE by 2030?
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Our analysis shows strong benefits for commercial and industrial Singaporean consumers to move away from annual matching toward hourly-matched 24/7 carbon-free energy (CFE).
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🇸🇬 Singapore has committed to reducing emissions to 45–50 MtCO₂e by 2035.

🏝️ As a small island city-state with limited domestic clean energy resources, Singapore requires careful planning to decarbonise its power system.
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🇸🇬 Singapore has big emissions reductions goals.

But with limited wind and solar resources and a current dependence on gas, this will require a major transformation of its power system.

⚡ We explored how 24/7 carbon free energy (CFE) could help.

Stay tuned, the full report drops next week.
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🚀 Big news: Scenario Builder is out of beta and now open to everyone. Our no-code power system modelling platform makes it easier than ever to explore energy transition pathways.

And yes — it is still totally free.

👉🏻 Sign up and start modelling here www.transitionzero.org/products/scenario-builder
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Matt, Steph and Temi are heading to the Big Apple next week for a series of discussions on power systems, philanthropy and the future of 24/7 clean energy at @climategroup.bsky.social Climate Week NYC.

☎️ Will you be around? We’d love to connect — reach out!
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We’re thrilled to bring four more countries online in Scenario Builder!

🇧🇳 Brunei Darussalam
🇰🇭 Cambodia
🇱🇦 Lao PDR
and 🇲🇲 Myanmar

Sign up and start modelling for free here 👉🏻 www.transitionzero.org/products/sce...
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👉 Download the full Modelling 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy in Japan report here → transitionzero.org/cfe

These reports are based on detailed open source grid models. The GitHub repository will be made available after publishing the last report.
transitionzero.org
🏭 If on average 90% of consumption is matched with CFE each hour, offtakers’ emissions intensity falls to nearly 74% lower than under annual matching – 72 gCO2/kWh compared to 273 gCO2/kWh.
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💰 Under the 90% hourly matching scenario, the renewable build-out saves USD 1.84 billion dollars’ worth of fossil fuel consumption annually.

⚡ The cost of clean energy at this level is lower than Japan’s average wholesale market prices recorded since 2019.
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Specifically: if 3% of Japan’s electricity demand were met with 24/7 CFE by 2030, what would this mean for costs, investment, and emissions? Our modelling shows major savings and emissions reductions when industrial users match their electricity use to clean generation hourly.
transitionzero.org
Using a detailed, open-source model of Japan’s power system, we examined how 24/7 CFE could affect grid planners and corporate buyers.
transitionzero.org
Meeting these goals requires a fundamental shift in how clean energy is procured: from annual matching to hourly-matched 24/7 carbon-free energy (CFE) — ensuring that electricity demand is met with clean sources every hour of the day.
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🇯🇵 Japan’s government set a new target under its Seventh Strategic Energy Plan — raising the share of renewables to 40–50% of electricity generation by 2040 while decarbonising thermal generation and restarting parts of its nuclear fleet.
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🔎 In the meantime, explore our explainer on 24/7 CFE to see how this approach can transform energy transition planning 👉 www.transitionzero.org/insights/wha...