No. Russian forces are still in Pokrovsk

TL;DR: Ukraine urgently needs more manpower to achieve a military victory. However, if the goal is to bleed Russia and delay its advance while ceding ground slowly, Ukraine is currently managing that grim task effectively.

"Molon labe"

We don't anticipate major changes in the short term. This update is simply to clarify the situation, as misinformation continues to circulate from people using our map suggesting large-scale Ukrainian counterattacks are imminent. These claims not supported by battlefield realities.

Last December, our editor Kodiak predicted that he'd be happy if Russia managed to advance roughly 4,000 square kilometers in 2025, as it would come at staggering cost.

Even so, Ukraine's defenders continue to fight with extraordinary resilience, especially useful against Russia's increasingly manpower-intensive assaults by foot, bike, and vehicle.

This shortage has left Ukraine largely unable or unwilling to conduct major counterattacks beyond limited operations by assault troops, who often face immense difficulty retaking even small villages. As a result, Russian forces can pause, refit, and rebuild with minimal risk of counter-offensives.

Over that period, this amounts to more than 200,000 soldiers who were never rotated, trained, or deployed to reinforce defences. Despite having plenty of eligible men and women aged 25-40, mobilization progress remains limited, which continues to embolden Russia.

Ukraine's persistent manpower shortage remains a central issue. As October 2025 draws to a close, it's been two years since our warnings began about the growing deficit - now estimated at around 10,000 troops per month.

Disturbingly, Russian forces also massacred Ukrainian civilians in the town, treating them with horrific disregard. If this isn't a wake-up call to stop being a stay-behind and join the army, it's hard to imagine what would be. You don't get to sit this out.

Ukrainian troops sighted in Andriivka, Sumy, showing Russian forces push back in Sumy

Russian forces advance slightly over the Vovcha river to Dachne in Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Russian forces also advance east of Pokrovsk / Myrnohrad, which does put Ukrainian forces in a pickle, but it's slow

Ukrainian drone strike on Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant (Russian SAM production site) causes substantial damage, over 1,300 km away from Ukraine. Strategic targeting has improved dramatically over the course of the year

Russian rail sabotaged in Zaporizhia yet again. That's three times this month

Russian forces only took the usual ~500 square kilometers again, and have been stopped for now in Sumy oblast.

At this point it's mainly manpower than Ukraine is failing at, can't take or hold a position without manpower but well, that's entirely on them to deal with that. Perspective is important

We continue to work, and have done some minor updates. Key updates this month on the back end have been some much needed updates to unit ID, Corps and patches, thanks to Militarylandnet and WarUnitObserver
and all the geolocators for their thankless work!

@covertshores.bsky.social in case you missed it:
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