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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 13h

Democratic nominee in a winnable County Legislature district disappeared back in April and is presumed dead. Dems are trying to replace him on the ballot, but the GOP don't want to lose the seat (it only backed Trump by 5 and probably backed Biden), so they're suing to keep him on the ballot.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 14h

Trump+22 district, so Van Epps should be the favorite here. I'm expecting a good Behn overperformance though, considering that Nashville should punch above its weight in a lower turnout special election.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 14h

The #TN07 primaries were tonight! Very lowkey election night a month before the big show lol.

Trump-endorsed former State Cabinet member Matt Van Epps easily won the Republican primary.

State Rep Aftyn Behn won the Democratic primary with just 28% of the vote!

They will face off in December now.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 21h

Court-ordered redistricting in Mississippi has given the Democrats an opportunity at gaining a Senate seat in the Memphis suburbs, specifically #SD02.

This district backed Harris by 6 last year and backed Brandon Presley for Governor by 15 in 2023.

RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 1d

a man and a woman are looking at each other and the man is asking " both "

ALT: a man and a woman are looking at each other and the man is asking " both "

media.tenor.com

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 1d

Thanks to court-ordered redistricting, the Democrats are hoping to flip Mississippi's #HD22 next month. This district backed Harris by less than a point and is represented by a Democrat-turned-Republican in Jon Lancaster.

Can the Dems punish a party switcher?

RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 2d

With November fast approaching, I'm announcing a new map series on here.

From tomorrow until the end of month, I'll be posting at least one map a day of each competitive state legislative district up for grabs next month! From New Jersey to Virginia and all the specials!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 3d

Illinois Dems finally got a candidate to announce for the Republican-held #SD24 in northern/central DuPage County (Harris+3) and his name is, I kid you not...

Ben McAdams

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 3d

Back in 1990, Connecticut had a chaotic gubernatorial election. Two Congressmen ran for the job, but in the end, it was a former US Senator who won it.

Former Republican Senator Lowell Weicker formed his own centrist Connecticut Party and ended up winning here by three points.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 4d

Last year, California's #AD36 flipped red on both the Presidential level and the State Assembly level. Nestled in Imperial/eastern Riverside Counties, this majority-Hispanic district swung from Biden+15 to Trump+1.

At the same time, Assembly Republicans flipped it by 4 points.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 5d

Shoutout to Will County Board Member Frankie Pretzel

Yes, you, Mr. Pretzel

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 5d

I probably will do that if I ever get around to making IDC primary maps

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 5d

Over in Alaska, Louise Stutes was one of the major Republicans players in the State House who left the GOP caucus to form a Majority Coalition with the Dems and Independents.

She ascended to the Speakership after 2020 and beat back a Republican challenger in 2022 in her #HD05.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 6d

Candidate filing is from October 27th to November 3rd

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 6d

Harris won it by 38 last year

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 6d

Don't think anyone has noticed this yet, but an hour ago, #IL05 Congressman Mike Quigley updated his campaign finance page with the state of Illinois to show that he's running for Mayor of Chicago in 2027.

Could be soon officially joining a *VERY* crowded field

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 6d

There's one Republican left on the Cook County Board of Commissioners, Sean Morrison in the 17th District.

His days on the board might be numbered though, because he represents a Harris+1 district in western Cook County and only won by 3 against an underfunded opponent in 2022.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 7d

What was he cooking

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 7d

As someone who goes to Rosemont/O'Hare somewhat often, I can vouch it is a very cursed place lol

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 7d

Redistricting changed it a little, but it backed Trump by 9

Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 7d

In most of the non-internal/non-partisan polls taken of this race, Ciattarelli hasn't been able to really escape Trump's approval rating:

This poll: Ciattarelli- 42%, Trump- 42%
Emerson: Ciattarelli- 43%, Trump- 41%
Quinnipiac: Ciattarelli- 41%, Trump- 41%
bsky.app/profile/poll...

Poll Tracker 📊 @polltracker.bsky.social · 7d

Fox News (Beacon/Shaw) poll | 9/25-9/28

New Jersey Governor (LV)
🟦Mikie Sherrill 50%
🟥Jack Ciattarelli 42%
—
New Jersey Governor (RV)
🟦Mikie Sherrill 48%
🟥Jack Ciattarelli 41%

www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-democrat-sherrill-leads-new-jersey-governors-race

t.co

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 7d

There's only one Republican left who represents Chicago in the State House, Brad Stephens of #HD20.

Stephens won his first bid for re-election in 2020, defeating Democrat Michelle Darbro by 9 despite being outspent by millions of dollars. He's won uncontested twice since then.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 8d

The most vulnerable Republican in the Pennsylvania State Senate next year is probably Tracy Pennycuick in #SD24.

This district in northern Montco backed Trump by two last year and elected Pennycuick in 2022 by four points, but both Fetterman & Shapiro won here in 2022.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 10d

Yeah I've heard that Ruwa Romman is going to jump in soon

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 10d

Probably. It's a state that voted less than a point to the rest of the country in 2024 in what's shaping up to be a blue midterm.

You're also running the risk of alienating some Democrats who would normally vote blue but don't want to vote for someone with Duncan's record.

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