unfixed_income
@unfixed-income.bsky.social
Really nice overview
July 6, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Really nice overview
Är du kvar runt Picadilly så kan jag bjuda på en pint
June 6, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Är du kvar runt Picadilly så kan jag bjuda på en pint
I think the jokes on you for reading about which ETFs a ”seasoned PM” is putting a few hundred thousand into.
May 22, 2025 at 6:47 AM
I think the jokes on you for reading about which ETFs a ”seasoned PM” is putting a few hundred thousand into.
I have Kri as a big position and have owned since 2021. My fear is UK growth will inevitably slow down at some point and US Froyo growth might be delayed by tariffs, which makes it hard to see an incredible IRR from here.
May 6, 2025 at 3:19 PM
I have Kri as a big position and have owned since 2021. My fear is UK growth will inevitably slow down at some point and US Froyo growth might be delayed by tariffs, which makes it hard to see an incredible IRR from here.
Allmänna tankar kring rapporten/bolaget/aktien här?
April 9, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Allmänna tankar kring rapporten/bolaget/aktien här?
Thank you chief!
April 1, 2025 at 6:31 AM
Thank you chief!
Disclosure: I own both $BGEO and $CGEO (both listed in London). As always, not advice — but for me, this is one of those rare setups where patience could really pay off. 23/x
March 31, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Disclosure: I own both $BGEO and $CGEO (both listed in London). As always, not advice — but for me, this is one of those rare setups where patience could really pay off. 23/x
Obviously, this isn’t risk-free. First and foremost: country risk. Georgia is still a frontier market. Politics has been messy lately. They also share a border with Russia and who knows if Kremlin could attempt to M&A the country. That’s a big reason why the discount exists. 22/x
March 31, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Obviously, this isn’t risk-free. First and foremost: country risk. Georgia is still a frontier market. Politics has been messy lately. They also share a border with Russia and who knows if Kremlin could attempt to M&A the country. That’s a big reason why the discount exists. 22/x
Could it stay cheap forever? Sure. But if they keep buying back 10–20% of shares annually, improving fundamentals, and the occasional monetisation lands — you don’t need rerating to make money here. Rerating is just the kicker. 21/x
March 31, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Could it stay cheap forever? Sure. But if they keep buying back 10–20% of shares annually, improving fundamentals, and the occasional monetisation lands — you don’t need rerating to make money here. Rerating is just the kicker. 21/x
Using the company's own valuation the discount to NAV is around 50%. I don't want to make this an exercise of putting multiples on non-listed companies in Georgia but the fact they they have been able to sell above book speaks loud here. 20/x
March 31, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Using the company's own valuation the discount to NAV is around 50%. I don't want to make this an exercise of putting multiples on non-listed companies in Georgia but the fact they they have been able to sell above book speaks loud here. 20/x
This would likely lead to CGEO conducting significant buybacks. At current share prices it means 1 or 2 good exists plus the regular dividends ~£45 mio could be enough to retire a third of shares outstanding in an instant. 19/x
March 31, 2025 at 10:32 PM
This would likely lead to CGEO conducting significant buybacks. At current share prices it means 1 or 2 good exists plus the regular dividends ~£45 mio could be enough to retire a third of shares outstanding in an instant. 19/x
This means CGEOs stake in BGEO is worth c £480 mio and you pay £100 mio for the stub. A stub with a clear goal to monetise these assets in the next few years. Moreover all cash received from dividends and asset sales will be measured against an incredibly high buyback-bar 18/x
March 31, 2025 at 10:32 PM
This means CGEOs stake in BGEO is worth c £480 mio and you pay £100 mio for the stub. A stub with a clear goal to monetise these assets in the next few years. Moreover all cash received from dividends and asset sales will be measured against an incredibly high buyback-bar 18/x
Given their targets each of these handful investments could be worth anywhere from £50 to 150 mio in the foreseeable future. So let's put these numbers in context and do some basic arithmetic. Market cap BGEO £2,500mio and market cap CGEO £580mio... 17/x
March 31, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Given their targets each of these handful investments could be worth anywhere from £50 to 150 mio in the foreseeable future. So let's put these numbers in context and do some basic arithmetic. Market cap BGEO £2,500mio and market cap CGEO £580mio... 17/x
Most of their investments have target growth rates of 15% (with correspondingly high ROIC targets) allowing them to grow while also paying back dividends to the CGEO mothership. 16/x.
March 31, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Most of their investments have target growth rates of 15% (with correspondingly high ROIC targets) allowing them to grow while also paying back dividends to the CGEO mothership. 16/x.
The takeaway is this: CGEO isn’t playing empire builder. They’re running the numbers, comparing everything to buying back their own undervalued stock, and actually following through. Rare behavior, even rarer in emerging markets. 15/x
March 31, 2025 at 10:32 PM
The takeaway is this: CGEO isn’t playing empire builder. They’re running the numbers, comparing everything to buying back their own undervalued stock, and actually following through. Rare behavior, even rarer in emerging markets. 15/x
And when they do sell assets, they don’t mess around. Best examples, water utility and beer business exits. Water: Sold 80% at a 2.9x USD MOIC. Beer: Last year they sold 80% of this asset 40% above book value (for $63mio) while they have an ongoing put option for the rest. 14/x
March 31, 2025 at 10:32 PM
And when they do sell assets, they don’t mess around. Best examples, water utility and beer business exits. Water: Sold 80% at a 2.9x USD MOIC. Beer: Last year they sold 80% of this asset 40% above book value (for $63mio) while they have an ongoing put option for the rest. 14/x
Since the elections in Georgia last year they have been repurchasing 15-25 thousand shares daily, relative to the less than 38 million shares outstanding, this is punchy. If they wouldn't run out of sellers they could retire all outstanding shares in 5-8 years. 13/x
March 31, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Since the elections in Georgia last year they have been repurchasing 15-25 thousand shares daily, relative to the less than 38 million shares outstanding, this is punchy. If they wouldn't run out of sellers they could retire all outstanding shares in 5-8 years. 13/x