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John V. Kane

@uptonorwell.bsky.social

1.3K followers 630 following 350 posts

Political Scientist. Professor at NYU’s Center for Global Affairs. Experiments, data analysis, guitar, drums, fan of comedy. Make guides for @statacorp.bsky.social users. Two boys and exhausted all the time. More at www.johnvkane.com

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Feb 20

🚨It's finally out AND #OpenAccess!!!

Do you do survey experiments? This article is for you! 7 things that increase the risk of null/non-significant results & how to detect/prevent them. It's one of my fav things I've ever written so I hope you enjoy ☺️ polisky

cup.org/3OQhKNv

More than meets the ITT: A guide for anticipating and investigating nonsignificant results in survey experiments | Journal of Experimental Political Science | Cambridge Core

More than meets the ITT: A guide for anticipating and investigating nonsignificant results in survey experiments

cup.org

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 12h

A short-and-sweet guide to developing research questions published in @nature.com.

Lots of good advice here 👍

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 12d

Really appreciate it, Rikio! My primary goal for that paper was for it to be as practical and useful for researchers as possible, so this is really nice to hear! 😊🙏

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · 14d

Are you or one of your students considering doing a Ph.D. in a social science? I've spent a lot of time talking about this w/ students & finally wrote something up.

IMO, there are only 3 good reasons to do it. One of them needs to be true--otherwise, don't.

medium.com/the-quantast...

The Only Three Reasons to Do a Ph.D. in the Social Sciences

If none are true, don’t do it.

medium.com

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Sep 7

Just heard about this from a friend. Wow. It’s like the Refused, Hives, Minus (circa “Jesus Christ Bobby” album), and At the Drive-In all combined together in the best possible way. Loving it.

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Sep 1

My goodness—hope the recovery keeps going smoothly, Raul! 🤞

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Aug 28

🚨 Very flattered to have a piece, w/ the terrific
@miacosta.bsky.social, in the new @apsa.bsky.social Experiments Newsletter!

In it, we offer some thoughts on how to think about how "realistic" experimental results are. Might be useful for students 😁

connect.apsanet.org/s42/newslett...

Newsletter: Main Page

connect.apsanet.org

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Aug 27

Many thanks for the s/o, Arieda! I’m really glad you liked it and hope folks find it useful 😊

Reposted by John V. Kane

Arieda Muço @ariedamuco.bsky.social · Aug 24

If you use Stata and you want to make nice coefficient plots, this article by @uptonorwell.bsky.social is really fantastic!

medium.com/the-stata-ga...

Making Regression Coefficient Plots in Stata

Traditionally, researchers reported results of regression analyses using tables. A more visually appealing way of presenting these results is by using a coefficient plot. Unlike a typical scatterplot…

medium.com

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Aug 5

Just submitted book revisions 🥳 and wanted to write something a little more "fun."

I've been wanting to write this one for a long time and just posted it on Medium (no paywall 👍). For the profs out there, it might serve as a useful class reading (?). Hope you enjoy!

medium.com/@jvk221/3-st...

3 Statistical Problems with Fate

We’ve all thought about whether particular events in our lives might have been due to Fate. Here are 3 statistical problems with doing that.

medium.com

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jul 30

Agreed, yes. I think what we're showing is that info about the "inflation rate" might not be interpreted the way we assume. There's clearly a lot of public confusion about what it means.

Lots more to do on this, so thank you for the feedback! 😁

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jul 30

I just checked and the partisan difference still holds. It's true that Ds tend to be more educated than Rs, but the difference isn't huge. On top of that, the % of the sample with post-grad edu (~15%) probably isn't big enough to drive that effect.

But yeah, edu is definitely a part of the puzzle.

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jul 29

Good question! It's looking like those with post-graduate degrees are the only ones with a (albeit narrow) plurality answering correctly.

But even still, it's a surprisingly small % 😕

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jul 28

Oh yes, that’s another huge misunderstanding indeed. I’d love to know the share of the public that makes that mistake

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jul 28

p.s., this is some early data from a current project with the great @cbwlezien.bsky.social 👍

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jul 28

Inflation was a big issue--maybe even *the* issue--in 2024.

But do citizens understand how to interpret inflation rates?

Using some new data from @verasight.bsky.social, the answer seems to be largely: no.

On top of that, Republicans show significantly less understanding than Democrats.

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jul 21

Truly wild to see that this just hit 300 citations on GS 🤯

It's a good lesson for PhD students--this started as a short homework assignment for a class on causal inference. At first I just wanted to know if MC placement matters. But over time, it turned into much more & led to several more papers.

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jul 15

Much appreciated, David! And thank you again for generously giving me feedback on an early draft of it! 🙏

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jul 15

Thanks so much, Hans!

Yep, empirically, a candidate whose party has already served two terms may have a slight disadvantage—but it doesn’t seem to be inherent.

That disadvantage, though, pales in comparison to the advantage held by 1-term incumbents (historically speaking) 👍

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jul 14

Link to article (open access!): www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Two terms of endearment? Incumbent-party performance in US presidential elections | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core

Two terms of endearment? Incumbent-party performance in US presidential elections - Volume 13 Issue 3

www.cambridge.org

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jul 14

My article on incumbency advantage in presidential elections is now out w/ issue and page numbers 🥳

Key finding: Being an incumbent president comes w/ inherent electoral advantages after 1 term. After 2 terms, a party is not inherently *dis*advantaged--just no more incumbency advantage.

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jun 29

Aww, so sorry, Julia 😔

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jun 18

A look at partisanship in the U.S. right now--what partisans will tolerate, what they won't, and where the parties differ.

(From an ongoing project with @iganson.bsky.social; n = ~1,100; graph made in @statacorp.bsky.social 😊)

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John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jun 5

Yes! Though it looks like it’s restricted to “methodology papers” and meta-analyses (?)

John V. Kane @uptonorwell.bsky.social · Jun 3

Hard to express what a relief it is to have just submitted the first complete draft of my book manuscript to @ucpress.bsky.social 😮‍💨🥳

5+ years in the making.
249 pages.
82,000 words.
0 ChatGPT. 😉

A million thanks to all those who gave me guidance and inspired me along the way! 🙏

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Reposted by John V. Kane

Matt Graham @mattgraham.bsky.social · May 23

Rs forgetting about the deficit is a classic case of what Kane & Anson call "deficit attention disorder." Their classic article: link.springer.com/article/10.1... @uptonorwell.bsky.social @iganson.bsky.social

‘Nobody’s talking about it’: Republicans’ incredible shrinking deficit talk

Only a few fiscal hawks raised debt worries, before almost all of them fell in line on the tax and spending megabill.

www.semafor.com

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