Valentin Smoliak
@valentinsmoliak.bsky.social
Geopolitical analyst, musicologist, composer, researcher & writer
🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇸🇫🇷🇲🇩
Works:
https://linktr.ee/valentinsmoliak?utm_source=linktree_profile_share<sid=68fd646e-8436-4d9b-bb75-1b7393770a4d
🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇸🇫🇷🇲🇩
Works:
https://linktr.ee/valentinsmoliak?utm_source=linktree_profile_share<sid=68fd646e-8436-4d9b-bb75-1b7393770a4d
1/3 Europe under pressure
The “great replacement” myth predates COVID. With Trump’s 2025 return, it’s back — now echoed in US policy debates. Migration isn’t Europe’s main threat. External backing of radical-right movements is.
Follow for deeper analysis 👇
The “great replacement” myth predates COVID. With Trump’s 2025 return, it’s back — now echoed in US policy debates. Migration isn’t Europe’s main threat. External backing of radical-right movements is.
Follow for deeper analysis 👇
January 15, 2026 at 9:35 PM
1/3 Europe under pressure
The “great replacement” myth predates COVID. With Trump’s 2025 return, it’s back — now echoed in US policy debates. Migration isn’t Europe’s main threat. External backing of radical-right movements is.
Follow for deeper analysis 👇
The “great replacement” myth predates COVID. With Trump’s 2025 return, it’s back — now echoed in US policy debates. Migration isn’t Europe’s main threat. External backing of radical-right movements is.
Follow for deeper analysis 👇
1️⃣
Trump’s second term runs on a paradox: abroad, cold America First realism — sanctions, coercion, control of resources. At home, managed populist chaos and permanent mobilization. Two logics operating at once.
Trump’s second term runs on a paradox: abroad, cold America First realism — sanctions, coercion, control of resources. At home, managed populist chaos and permanent mobilization. Two logics operating at once.
January 13, 2026 at 10:03 PM
1️⃣
Trump’s second term runs on a paradox: abroad, cold America First realism — sanctions, coercion, control of resources. At home, managed populist chaos and permanent mobilization. Two logics operating at once.
Trump’s second term runs on a paradox: abroad, cold America First realism — sanctions, coercion, control of resources. At home, managed populist chaos and permanent mobilization. Two logics operating at once.
1️⃣ 🚨 Le second mandat de Trump repose sur un paradoxe clair.
À l’extérieur : une stratégie America First cohérente (coercition économique, contrôle des ressources, pression ciblée).
À l’intérieur : un chaos politique maîtrisé fondé sur le populisme et la mobilisation permanente.
À l’extérieur : une stratégie America First cohérente (coercition économique, contrôle des ressources, pression ciblée).
À l’intérieur : un chaos politique maîtrisé fondé sur le populisme et la mobilisation permanente.
January 13, 2026 at 5:55 PM
1️⃣ 🚨 Le second mandat de Trump repose sur un paradoxe clair.
À l’extérieur : une stratégie America First cohérente (coercition économique, contrôle des ressources, pression ciblée).
À l’intérieur : un chaos politique maîtrisé fondé sur le populisme et la mobilisation permanente.
À l’extérieur : une stratégie America First cohérente (coercition économique, contrôle des ressources, pression ciblée).
À l’intérieur : un chaos politique maîtrisé fondé sur le populisme et la mobilisation permanente.
1️⃣ 🧠 Trump has set the stage for a new, tougher sanctions regime on Russia.
Congress-backed secondary sanctions — including tariffs on countries still importing Russian energy — signal a shift from symbolic measures to concrete geopolitical pressure.
Congress-backed secondary sanctions — including tariffs on countries still importing Russian energy — signal a shift from symbolic measures to concrete geopolitical pressure.
January 12, 2026 at 9:18 PM
1️⃣ 🧠 Trump has set the stage for a new, tougher sanctions regime on Russia.
Congress-backed secondary sanctions — including tariffs on countries still importing Russian energy — signal a shift from symbolic measures to concrete geopolitical pressure.
Congress-backed secondary sanctions — including tariffs on countries still importing Russian energy — signal a shift from symbolic measures to concrete geopolitical pressure.
1️⃣ The Epstein Affair isn’t just a scandal — it’s a crisis of trust.
Even without a “client list,” patterns of elite access and long-standing associations with powerful figures have left many questioning whether the wealthy and connected play by the same rules as everyone else.
Even without a “client list,” patterns of elite access and long-standing associations with powerful figures have left many questioning whether the wealthy and connected play by the same rules as everyone else.
January 12, 2026 at 10:21 AM
1️⃣ The Epstein Affair isn’t just a scandal — it’s a crisis of trust.
Even without a “client list,” patterns of elite access and long-standing associations with powerful figures have left many questioning whether the wealthy and connected play by the same rules as everyone else.
Even without a “client list,” patterns of elite access and long-standing associations with powerful figures have left many questioning whether the wealthy and connected play by the same rules as everyone else.
1️⃣ ♟️ Trump’s approach aligns with Europe’s strategy on Ukraine.
A U.S. withdrawal risks repeating Afghanistan — far costlier and damaging to America’s credibility. Maintaining pressure preserves leverage.
A U.S. withdrawal risks repeating Afghanistan — far costlier and damaging to America’s credibility. Maintaining pressure preserves leverage.
January 11, 2026 at 11:01 PM
1️⃣ ♟️ Trump’s approach aligns with Europe’s strategy on Ukraine.
A U.S. withdrawal risks repeating Afghanistan — far costlier and damaging to America’s credibility. Maintaining pressure preserves leverage.
A U.S. withdrawal risks repeating Afghanistan — far costlier and damaging to America’s credibility. Maintaining pressure preserves leverage.
1/5
2026 Paris Declaration echoes 1919:
post-WWI treaties aimed at stability but fueled WWII via punishment & blind spots. Now Macron, Starmer & Zelenskyy plan post-ceasefire troops in Ukraine — hubs, monitoring, EU/NATO ties. Real security or diplomatic show? History warns: words need will. ⬇️
2026 Paris Declaration echoes 1919:
post-WWI treaties aimed at stability but fueled WWII via punishment & blind spots. Now Macron, Starmer & Zelenskyy plan post-ceasefire troops in Ukraine — hubs, monitoring, EU/NATO ties. Real security or diplomatic show? History warns: words need will. ⬇️
January 11, 2026 at 8:09 PM
1/5
2026 Paris Declaration echoes 1919:
post-WWI treaties aimed at stability but fueled WWII via punishment & blind spots. Now Macron, Starmer & Zelenskyy plan post-ceasefire troops in Ukraine — hubs, monitoring, EU/NATO ties. Real security or diplomatic show? History warns: words need will. ⬇️
2026 Paris Declaration echoes 1919:
post-WWI treaties aimed at stability but fueled WWII via punishment & blind spots. Now Macron, Starmer & Zelenskyy plan post-ceasefire troops in Ukraine — hubs, monitoring, EU/NATO ties. Real security or diplomatic show? History warns: words need will. ⬇️
1️⃣ ♟️ U.S. policy toward Venezuela has entered a new phase.
Years of sanctions and symbolic diplomacy failed to change power dynamics in Caracas. The latest operation signals the end of managed stalemate — and the start of a riskier strategy.
Years of sanctions and symbolic diplomacy failed to change power dynamics in Caracas. The latest operation signals the end of managed stalemate — and the start of a riskier strategy.
January 10, 2026 at 11:20 PM
1️⃣ ♟️ U.S. policy toward Venezuela has entered a new phase.
Years of sanctions and symbolic diplomacy failed to change power dynamics in Caracas. The latest operation signals the end of managed stalemate — and the start of a riskier strategy.
Years of sanctions and symbolic diplomacy failed to change power dynamics in Caracas. The latest operation signals the end of managed stalemate — and the start of a riskier strategy.
Performative solidarity on social media:
“I’m in the Netherlands/US, saw the video, and support the Iranian/Ukrainian people” creates dissonance: personal safety vs others’ suffering.
That’s performative activism — comfort empathy, no risk, an implicit “I’m safe, you’re not.”
#introduction
“I’m in the Netherlands/US, saw the video, and support the Iranian/Ukrainian people” creates dissonance: personal safety vs others’ suffering.
That’s performative activism — comfort empathy, no risk, an implicit “I’m safe, you’re not.”
#introduction
January 10, 2026 at 3:36 PM
Performative solidarity on social media:
“I’m in the Netherlands/US, saw the video, and support the Iranian/Ukrainian people” creates dissonance: personal safety vs others’ suffering.
That’s performative activism — comfort empathy, no risk, an implicit “I’m safe, you’re not.”
#introduction
“I’m in the Netherlands/US, saw the video, and support the Iranian/Ukrainian people” creates dissonance: personal safety vs others’ suffering.
That’s performative activism — comfort empathy, no risk, an implicit “I’m safe, you’re not.”
#introduction
Reposted by Valentin Smoliak
Je n'ai qu'une toute petite audience - et je m'en satisfais ! - mais que celle-ci sache que vous comptons désormais parmi nous @valentinsmoliak.bsky.social dont les analyses sont souvent précieuses.
Valentin, des contacts experts en question militaire dans l'onglet "liste" de mon profil.
Valentin, des contacts experts en question militaire dans l'onglet "liste" de mon profil.
January 10, 2026 at 2:38 PM
Je n'ai qu'une toute petite audience - et je m'en satisfais ! - mais que celle-ci sache que vous comptons désormais parmi nous @valentinsmoliak.bsky.social dont les analyses sont souvent précieuses.
Valentin, des contacts experts en question militaire dans l'onglet "liste" de mon profil.
Valentin, des contacts experts en question militaire dans l'onglet "liste" de mon profil.
1️⃣ Ukraine’s war has entered a phase of endurance, not breakthrough.
Russia is applying steady, low-intensity pressure and incremental advances — a war of attrition designed to outlast Ukraine and exhaust Western cohesion.
Russia is applying steady, low-intensity pressure and incremental advances — a war of attrition designed to outlast Ukraine and exhaust Western cohesion.
January 10, 2026 at 2:24 PM
1️⃣ Ukraine’s war has entered a phase of endurance, not breakthrough.
Russia is applying steady, low-intensity pressure and incremental advances — a war of attrition designed to outlast Ukraine and exhaust Western cohesion.
Russia is applying steady, low-intensity pressure and incremental advances — a war of attrition designed to outlast Ukraine and exhaust Western cohesion.
Hello Bluesky! 👋
Geopolitical analyst, musicologist, composer & researcher based in France.
Specializing in Ukrainian & Balkan classical music – using its structural insights to decode geopolitical and historical patterns.
#introduction #NewHere #shipping #energy #trading #Bluesky
Geopolitical analyst, musicologist, composer & researcher based in France.
Specializing in Ukrainian & Balkan classical music – using its structural insights to decode geopolitical and historical patterns.
#introduction #NewHere #shipping #energy #trading #Bluesky
January 10, 2026 at 1:36 PM