Notably the person who checked the math agrees that you cannot just draw a smooth curve on this, and their assumption that you can is bad. I noted this from the write-up and that's part of why I did not check the math.

It turns out someone else had already checked the math. I did not read any of the math because it seemed too painful, but if that's your jam, you can read about everything wrong with the math too. forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KgejNn...

There is some confusion about whether or not we understand LLMs. The answer is yes and no, but mostly no. It's a complicated enough question that it seemed like it needed an article.

www.verysane.ai/p/do-we-unde...

"AI 2027" argues that AI will reach roughly human level in roughly 2027. This just happens to be right about when OpenAI would expect to start to run out of money.

I argue that this is not a coincidence at all, and its predictions are all wrong.

www.verysane.ai/p/agi-probab...

This had an error in the post previously, fixed now.

What Makes AI "Generative"? It's Not What You Think

I can just tell you actually: it's how large the output space is, or equivalently, how many possible outputs there are. Bigger output spaces are just fundamentally different.

www.verysane.ai/p/what-makes...

Some Thoughts On The Platonic Representation Hypothesis,

or,

How We're Rediscovering Platonism By Doing Statistics

or,

How AI Training Is Actually Chaining Up Some Guy In A Cave,

or,

Bait for Philosophy Majors

www.verysane.ai/p/some-thoug...

The most well-known statistic about AI water use is a lie. This makes it frustrating to talk about AI and the environment, and this is a long deep dive on that specific point.

www.verysane.ai/p/the-bigges...

Pushed previously as a notes file, this is a short list of ideas which have, or are, setting the agenda for AI, presented entirely by quoting the relevant person.

www.verysane.ai/p/ai-history...

Pushed previously as a notes file, this is a short list of ideas which have, or are, setting the agenda for AI, presented entirely by quoting the relevant person.

www.verysane.ai/p/ai-history...

I couldn't find a high-level overview of what AI is and how we got where we are, so I wrote one. www.verysane.ai/p/what-is-ai