Vincent Ledvina
@vincentledvina.bsky.social
📷”The Aurora Guy”
🌌Space Physics Ph.D. student
📍North Pole, Alaska
🫂Participatory science, science comm.
🌀 Professional aurora chaser
👨💻Views my own
🌌Space Physics Ph.D. student
📍North Pole, Alaska
🫂Participatory science, science comm.
🌀 Professional aurora chaser
👨💻Views my own
The aurora at mid-latitudes is a bit subdued so far tonight. Here is a live look at the northern horizon from Isle Royale in Michigan: go.theauroraguy.com/webcams .
November 25, 2025 at 12:38 AM
The aurora at mid-latitudes is a bit subdued so far tonight. Here is a live look at the northern horizon from Isle Royale in Michigan: go.theauroraguy.com/webcams .
The Bz is almost entirely southward as well. G1-G2 conditions may persist throughout the day and into the night.
November 24, 2025 at 9:40 PM
The Bz is almost entirely southward as well. G1-G2 conditions may persist throughout the day and into the night.
Quick update: the high-speed solar wind from the coronal holes has arrived a bit earlier than expected. Speeds are now in excess of 700 km/s. Some auroral displays may be possible for the northern tier of the U.S. tonight.
November 24, 2025 at 9:40 PM
Quick update: the high-speed solar wind from the coronal holes has arrived a bit earlier than expected. Speeds are now in excess of 700 km/s. Some auroral displays may be possible for the northern tier of the U.S. tonight.
Hey, everyone! One of my friends, Dr. Claire Gasque who is a scientist studying the aurora at UC Berkeley has a request and needs your help! She is looking for pictures of a STEVE event which occured on the night of August 29-30, 2024 over Alaska and northern Canada.
November 24, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Hey, everyone! One of my friends, Dr. Claire Gasque who is a scientist studying the aurora at UC Berkeley has a request and needs your help! She is looking for pictures of a STEVE event which occured on the night of August 29-30, 2024 over Alaska and northern Canada.
Some nice aurora in Porjus, Sweden now fueled in part by the ongoing effects of the coronal hole high-speed stream. These CHHSS events are particularly nice for high-latitudes.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
November 24, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Some nice aurora in Porjus, Sweden now fueled in part by the ongoing effects of the coronal hole high-speed stream. These CHHSS events are particularly nice for high-latitudes.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
Here's what the aurora looked like last night in Ely, MN, close to the U.S.-Canada border. Views like these are possible tonight as well, perhaps with the aurora stretching even higher in the sky since solar wind conditions have become more favorable. Let's see!
November 24, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Here's what the aurora looked like last night in Ely, MN, close to the U.S.-Canada border. Views like these are possible tonight as well, perhaps with the aurora stretching even higher in the sky since solar wind conditions have become more favorable. Let's see!
Currently, the solar wind magnetic field is elevated, and GOES mag readings indicate that there is enough "charge" in the system to fuel a substorm, maybe within the next hour. If you're above the 45th parallel and are a dedicated chaser, monitor webcam activity and GOES mag.
November 24, 2025 at 6:05 AM
Currently, the solar wind magnetic field is elevated, and GOES mag readings indicate that there is enough "charge" in the system to fuel a substorm, maybe within the next hour. If you're above the 45th parallel and are a dedicated chaser, monitor webcam activity and GOES mag.
There's a bit of glow on the Isle Royale cam in Michigan right now! This is likely due to the elevated IMF and some recent south Bz conditions. Take a look at live webcams and if you're along the U.S-Canada border, you have a shot at activity right now.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
November 24, 2025 at 5:44 AM
There's a bit of glow on the Isle Royale cam in Michigan right now! This is likely due to the elevated IMF and some recent south Bz conditions. Take a look at live webcams and if you're along the U.S-Canada border, you have a shot at activity right now.
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
go.theauroraguy.com/webcams
There are some new sunspot regions emerging in the Sun's east! The SSN nearly doubled in the last few days. Will these active regions manifest into major flare players? We'll see! So far, AR 4290 and 4291 are the most promising of the bunch. AR 4291 has a 15% chance of M-flares.
November 24, 2025 at 5:30 AM
There are some new sunspot regions emerging in the Sun's east! The SSN nearly doubled in the last few days. Will these active regions manifest into major flare players? We'll see! So far, AR 4290 and 4291 are the most promising of the bunch. AR 4291 has a 15% chance of M-flares.
At the opera this afternoon. La bohème
November 24, 2025 at 12:23 AM
At the opera this afternoon. La bohème
Imagine being alone under a sky like this
November 23, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Imagine being alone under a sky like this
Here is a multi-day extended forecast from the UK Met office showing their take on what activity levels we may expect from the incoming fast wind. Note that these forecasts are more like best guesses, and actual conditions will differ.
November 23, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Here is a multi-day extended forecast from the UK Met office showing their take on what activity levels we may expect from the incoming fast wind. Note that these forecasts are more like best guesses, and actual conditions will differ.
Coronal holes typically don't produce geomagnetic storming beyond the G1-G2 level, and I think that is true here as well. Although, CH 98, 99 are positive-polarity holes which align with the preferred solar wind polarity this time of year (Russell-McPherron effect).
November 23, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Coronal holes typically don't produce geomagnetic storming beyond the G1-G2 level, and I think that is true here as well. Although, CH 98, 99 are positive-polarity holes which align with the preferred solar wind polarity this time of year (Russell-McPherron effect).
NOAA's WSA model also gives a similar prediction with the CIR/HSS beginning around Nov 25-26. Coronal hole effects don't really have "impact" times since effects can gradually ramp up over the coures of hours or days. I would monitor real-time solar wind data starting Nov 25.
November 23, 2025 at 7:27 PM
NOAA's WSA model also gives a similar prediction with the CIR/HSS beginning around Nov 25-26. Coronal hole effects don't really have "impact" times since effects can gradually ramp up over the coures of hours or days. I would monitor real-time solar wind data starting Nov 25.
The HUXt model is currently calling for some high-speed solar wind to begin affecting Earth around Nov 25-26. As you can see, there are also no CMEs currently modeled to impact Earth. You can learn more about CME modeling in my blog post: go.theauroraguy.com/huxtmodel
November 23, 2025 at 7:27 PM
The HUXt model is currently calling for some high-speed solar wind to begin affecting Earth around Nov 25-26. As you can see, there are also no CMEs currently modeled to impact Earth. You can learn more about CME modeling in my blog post: go.theauroraguy.com/huxtmodel
You can learn more about what coronal holes are and how they can affect Earth by downloading my free e-book on aurora chasing: go.theauroraguy.com/ebook
November 23, 2025 at 7:27 PM
You can learn more about what coronal holes are and how they can affect Earth by downloading my free e-book on aurora chasing: go.theauroraguy.com/ebook
Positive-polarity coronal holes 98 and 99 are now facing Earth and sending fast wind our way. This solar wind enhancement may reach us in 2-3 days and cause G1-G2/Kp 5-6 conditions. We are already seeing a field enhancement likely caused by an SSBC. More activity may be coming.
November 23, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Positive-polarity coronal holes 98 and 99 are now facing Earth and sending fast wind our way. This solar wind enhancement may reach us in 2-3 days and cause G1-G2/Kp 5-6 conditions. We are already seeing a field enhancement likely caused by an SSBC. More activity may be coming.
I think the effects from the coronal holes currently facing Earth are still on the way. I’ll make a post about what to expect WRT that later today.
November 23, 2025 at 5:10 PM
I think the effects from the coronal holes currently facing Earth are still on the way. I’ll make a post about what to expect WRT that later today.
Looks like we have some decent IMF enhancement. Auroral displays along the northern tier of the U.S. are possible tonight if data hold. The cause of this may be an SSBC structure (crossing between solar wind polarities).
November 23, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Looks like we have some decent IMF enhancement. Auroral displays along the northern tier of the U.S. are possible tonight if data hold. The cause of this may be an SSBC structure (crossing between solar wind polarities).
Has anyone observed STEVE from Alaska? This is just a soft ask for now, but I am compiling a list of events to study further, and if you have a photo of STEVE from Alaska (specifically near Fairbanks), feel free to comment it below with a date, time, and location!
Photo below by Neil Zeller/NASA
Photo below by Neil Zeller/NASA
November 22, 2025 at 10:52 PM
Has anyone observed STEVE from Alaska? This is just a soft ask for now, but I am compiling a list of events to study further, and if you have a photo of STEVE from Alaska (specifically near Fairbanks), feel free to comment it below with a date, time, and location!
Photo below by Neil Zeller/NASA
Photo below by Neil Zeller/NASA
See this halo CME? Unfortunately, it's heading directly... AWAY from Earth. However, it looks like AR 4274 might be responsible for this big eruption, and it is probably 10 days or so from making a re-appearance on the Earth-facing disk if it survives long enough. We'll see!
November 22, 2025 at 8:43 AM
See this halo CME? Unfortunately, it's heading directly... AWAY from Earth. However, it looks like AR 4274 might be responsible for this big eruption, and it is probably 10 days or so from making a re-appearance on the Earth-facing disk if it survives long enough. We'll see!
The mug is unique in that it transforms from a dark color to one of my favorite photos of the aurora when you pour a hot beverage inside.
November 22, 2025 at 8:04 AM
The mug is unique in that it transforms from a dark color to one of my favorite photos of the aurora when you pour a hot beverage inside.
If anyone is looking for good presents for the upcoming holidays, check out my most popular product, my aurora borealis "Magic Mug!"
Available on my website: theauroraguy.com/products/aur...
Available on my website: theauroraguy.com/products/aur...
November 22, 2025 at 8:04 AM
If anyone is looking for good presents for the upcoming holidays, check out my most popular product, my aurora borealis "Magic Mug!"
Available on my website: theauroraguy.com/products/aur...
Available on my website: theauroraguy.com/products/aur...
For example, this morning, I was waking up for class, and Maia was just getting home, dropping guests off at around 7 am. Not all nights go this late, but if there's a good chance for aurora, we will go that extra mile (literally).
November 21, 2025 at 5:26 PM
For example, this morning, I was waking up for class, and Maia was just getting home, dropping guests off at around 7 am. Not all nights go this late, but if there's a good chance for aurora, we will go that extra mile (literally).
The good thing about Maia is she won't cancel if it looks clear far away from town. As long as guests are okay with it, Maia *will* drive those long distances to see the aurora.
November 21, 2025 at 5:26 PM
The good thing about Maia is she won't cancel if it looks clear far away from town. As long as guests are okay with it, Maia *will* drive those long distances to see the aurora.